Army Black Knights 2024 College Football Preview (free access)

Army Black Knights 2024 College Football Preview

Posted June 24, 2024

2023 Recap

Record – 6-6

ATS – 5-6-1

It’s hard to call it a ‘disappointing’ season when you win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy by taking down your rivals at Air Force and Navy, but there’s no doubt that Army left a few wins on the table. Losing games to ULM and Massachusetts was inexcusable and it cost them a bowl bid. The Black Knights finished the campaign with four (!) consecutive victories so let’s hope they can carry that momentum into 2024.


Army Black Knights 2024 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Black Knights were #7 in the country in rushing offense LY (208 YPG) but they were WAY down from what they accomplished in the previous five seasons (289/281/273/297/312). Yes, the intent was to throw the ball a bit more, but in the end, that didn’t work out so well and they finished #117 in total offense and #111 in scoring offense (#111). The offense will be improved this season as they return their fine QB Bryson Daily who led the team in rushing LY (901, 7 TD) whilst doing a decent job (for a service academy QB) in the THROW GAME (50%, 7-6 TD to INT).  Army also retains their top three RBs and the rushing attack should blossom once again as they move back closer to their option roots this year. When they do choose to take a shot down the field it’s good to know that they retain three of their top-four WRs from LY’s team, although they’re sure to miss HOME RUN HITTER Isaiah Alston (29.6, 2 TD). Four starters return up front and they’ve got decent size. They’ll probably also appreciate moving back towards the familiar triple option.

DEFENSE

Army struggled vs the run for the 2nd consecutive season LY (176 YPG, #106) and they’ve gotta figure out a way to get that fixed. Unfortunately, only three starters return on this side of the football (8,6,8,7 L4Y) and they lose nine of their top-11 tacklers from last year’s squad. NG Kyle Lewis is an excellent body to build around up front but it remains to be seen what kind of talent Army has to surround him on the DL. The Black Knights always seem to have productive specimens at LB but it’ll hurt to lose #1 tackler and team leader LB Leo Lowin, as well as a few other key contributors. FS Max Didomenico is the kind of player you need to lead on the back end but Army lost a lot of experience from the LY’s secondary. We’re in ‘show me’ mode in terms of the defense this season and are not as high as the market on the stop unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Army rated a fine #44 in the Phil Steele special teams rankings LY but they lose their reliable PK Quinn Maretzki (12/14 FG, 25/25  XP LY) and will need better performance in the punting/coverage department (#125 net punting LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s not as bad as it could be moving to the AAC. They miss Memphis and Tulane (!) and get to play UTSA at home. They’ve got an automatic loss vs Notre Dame (neutral site) but there aren’t any other monsters on the docket.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UTSA (Nov 30)

Service academies are often impervious to scheduling challenges but it’s worth noting that this BAD BOY comes after the game with Notre Dame and before the battle with Navy. Having a bye week before the Navy game can’t hurt tho.

Season Win Total

Market consensus June 24

Over 6.5 +150

Under 6.5 -180

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

This has the feel of a 6-6 team with room to the upside if the defense overachieves. We’ve seen a range of numbers from 5.5 to 6.5 so shop around.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Jeff Monken is 43-17 SU (!) at home but just 14-31 in true road games.

Army is just 26-34 ATS (43%) in home games over the L10Y.

The Black Knights have had just one losing season since 2015 and that came back in 2019 when they posted a mark of 5-8.


MEGALOCKS Forecast:

“SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIT”.

<Clay Davis, The Wire>

We’re glad to see Army get back to basics this year and focus once again an ramming it down people’s throats. Shotgun? SHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEIT. Just do what you do best. Speaking of which, Army’s got an excellent QB and a deep set of run game weaponry that’ll do great work this season. The Black Knights’ ultimate success will come down to how the new defense performs and that’s a big unknown. We think they’ll be fine moving to the AAC, at least for this campaign, as they have an easy set of conference assignments.  Let’s pencil them in for a bowl appearance as we think HC Jeff Monken and the crew will find a way.