College Football Predictions – Army West Point Black Knights 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 8-5
Yes, guy.
Army rattled off a program-record eleven wins, won their 2nd consecutive Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, and CURB-STOMPED the Houston Cougars in the Armed Forces Bowl (W 70-14) to end the campaign. The Black Knights almost pulled an all-time SHOCK THE WORLD moment when they took the powerful Oklahoma Sooners to overtime. They couldn’t seal the deal but didn’t lose another game from that point forward (nine straight wins).
Does Army have a shot at booking another double-digit winning season?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #3
Army West Point Black Knights 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Kelvin Hopkins stepped in for the departed Ahmad Bradshaw and did an admirable job rushing for over 1,000 yards and 17 TDs (!) while completing 55% of his passes. That completion percentage is RAREFIED AIR for a QB leading an option offense. The Black Knights lose a pair of key contributors to the rushing attack as Darnell Woolfolk (14 TDs LY) and Andy Davidson have both used up their eligibility. We still have faith in Army being able to dominate on the ground as they have exceeded 300 YPG rushing in each of the last three years. The offensive line returns three starters and there are still some scary targets at WR that can do damage once or twice a game. So, ya, this offense still looks pretty good and will surpass the 30 PPG mark (32.8, 30.7, 29.9 PPG L3Y).
DEFENSE
Army has yielded less than 20 PPG in two of the last three seasons and gave up an impressive 17.7 PPG (#10 FBS) in 2018. We have some reservations about this year’s defense as the Black Knights return just four starters, lose their leader and #1 tackler LB James Nachtigal, and move on without ace DC Jay Bateman (UNC). You know they are going to play hard and be well-coached, but there is definitely the possibility that the run defense takes a moderate turn for the worse. They will also be without their top-two sack leaders and that might negatively impact the pass defense. The good news? Three starters return to the secondary including their ace CB Elijah Riley.
The Black Knights hold the ball a LONG time, and that is a big benefit to the defense. We expect an increase in the PPG metric to a level similar to what was posted by the 2017 squad (22.0 PPG).
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
It’s hard to be anything but pessimistic. Army needs to break in a new PK as well as a new punter. Their return units were brutal in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s wonderful. Outside of a nasty trip to Michigan there appears to be clear sailing almost every week.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing significant to note.
Season Win Total
Over 10 -110
Under 10 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Even if you assume they lose to Michigan, it’s really hard to find two more losses in the patch of PURE FILTH that inhabits their schedule. Our best guess is that they have two losses heading into the season-ending battle with Navy. No play for now. <note: they play 13 games>
MEGAmazing Tidbits
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This squad has a few question marks but should still be good enough to make a run at another double-digit winning campaign. It’s always a bonus when you have the most efficient offense in college football and can play KEEP AWAY from the opposition. Introducing a bunch of new players on defense, not to mention breaking in a new DC, have us thinking that they might struggle a bit more than anticipated. In any event, whoever set up this schedule should get a 190% raise. Just kidding. Not really.
Army is 31-30-2 ATS under the watch of HC Jeff Monken (five seasons). We will take a wait-and-see approach with the Black Knights and pick our spots from a betting perspective.
Want more Army West Point football ?
WEBSITE
http://goarmywestpoint.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://army.forums.rivals.com/forums/army-black-knights-football.18/
https://army.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-12th-knight.16/
NEWS
http://blogs.hudsonvalley.com/west-point-army-football/
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/349/army-black-knights
http://bleacherreport.com/army-football
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/teams/army-black-knights
TWITTER
Hashtags – #GoArmy, #BeatNavy
Accounts to follow
https://twitter.com/ArmyWP_Football