College Football Predictions – Army West Point Black Knights 2020 College Football Preview
August 24, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 5-8
ATS – 5-8
The Black Knights started out in fine fashion winning three of their first four games, albeit over weak opponents (Rice, UTSA, Morgan St). The one loss in the opening month? A THREE-POINT loss at the BIG HOUSE in Ann Arbor. They went on a five-game skid and couldn’t catch a break. Each of the defeats came by single digits. They were beat handily by Navy in the season finale (L 31-7) which snapped the three-game winning streak over their rival.
Can they get back on the winning track in 2020?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #2 <BYU, Army, Liberty>
Army West Point Black Knights 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Black Knights were strong on the ground as per usual LY (#3 FBS, 297 YPG) but that was the first time they posted fewer than 300YPG since 2015. The big challenge this year is replacing their reliable starting QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. but note that Jabari Laws started five games last season and booked a pair of 100-yard rushing games, and a 200-yard passing performance (vs Air Force). Our ARMY FOOTBALL INSIDERS are cautiously optimistic that Laws can do the job at a high-level. <Update Aug 31. It’s still unclear who will be the starting QB in week 1. Christian Anderson and Jemel Jones are also in the mix>. The ground game loses a couple of key pieces in Connor Slomka (658, 8 TD LY) and Kell Walker (398, 6.9) but they’re typically able to reload in effective fashion, and note that RB Artice Hobbs IV averaged 29.7 yards-per-catch on 10 receptions LY. Laws has shown promise MATRICULATING the ball down the field and he’ll be happy to know that WR Cam Harrison in back in the mix (433, 17.3, 3 TD LY). Three starters are back up front including senior center Peyton Reeder.
Army has been consistent from a PPG perspective over the last four years (28.5, 32.8, 30.7, 29.9) and we forecast them coming within that range once again in 2020. Hopefully, they can be better on 3rd downs, as last season they had their lowest success rate since 2015.
DEFENSE
Much like the offense, the defense has been very consistent over the past four years allowing between 17.7 and 23.0 PPG on each occasion. It certainly helps that the offense spends a lot of time on the field, but they’re very scrappy and well-coached. Seven starters return on this side of the ball but they lose three of their top-four tacklers from a season ago including LB Cole Christiansen who’s off to the NFL (!) (Chargers). They should be fine at LB with the return of a pair of upperclassmen starters including #2 tackler Arik Smith (2.5 sacks) and they bring back three starters in the secondary. The bad news on the back end is the departure of CB Elijah Riley who did the impossible by leading the team in sacks, PD, and INTs (3).
They should be decent on defense once again. Two big concerns are a potential lack of PENETRATION (21 sacks LY, lowest total since 2015) and finding a way to get off the field on 3rd downs. Last year they allowed a whopping 45% success rate after a 27% mark in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Army was just 4/7 (!) on FG attempts LY and projected starter Cole Talley was 1/3. The entire field is often FOUR DOWN TERRITORY so they don’t attempt a lot of FGs. Zack Harding is a very good punter. They were extremely weak on returns LY and typically lack punch in that department.
Schedule Analysis <updated August 31>
Overall – As things stand right now, they have 12 games booked! Great job getting that schedule filled up, yo. A home game with Cincinnati was the latest addition. They meet up with three FCS teams and only have three true road games (UTSA, Tulane, Cincinnati).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing too spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Army bagged THREE consecutive National Titles from 1944-1946 and booked a record of 27-0-1 over that time horizon. Sweet.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
This will be a more successful Army Black Knights squad than what we saw in 2019. The offense will be its usual efficient self and we think they’ll be fine at QB. Expect good, but not great defense. They’ll probably have better luck in one-score games and look certain to book a winning record in 2020.
#GoArmy !
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WEBSITE
https://goarmywestpoint.com/sports/football
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NEWS
http://blogs.hudsonvalley.com/west-point-army-football/
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