Auburn at Alabama – College Football Predictions
The Game
Here we go!
It’s Iron Bowl time on Saturday afternoon as Auburn visits ROLL TIDE in Tuscaloosa. Auburn has had an up and down season but has won three of their last four games to sit at 7-4. They can make their season with a massive upset. Can they get it done? Let’s take a look.
The Details
Alabama -24.5 Auburn (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -23.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Alabama 38.5 Auburn 14
The Match-Up:
ROLL TIDE offense vs Auburn defense
Alabama has been amazing on offense this season and QB Tua Tagovailoa has posted a remarkable 31-2 (!) TD to INT ratio and averaged 12 (!) yards per attempt. It should be noted however that the two defenses they faced with a pulse (LSU, Miss St) held ROLL TIDE to just 29 and 24 points. Auburn is ranked #5 in the SEC in yards per play D and are #2 in the conference in sacks (34). ROLL TIDE has a deep stable of RBs but it is truly the passing game that makes everything roll. Auburn has the MINERALS to get pressure on the QB and it will be up to Tua to do what he has been doing all year and slice and dice, with the more than occasional shot over the top. It’s hard to see Tua making many mistakes so the Tigers will have to be exceptional on 3rd downs (#27 FBS) against a team that is crazy good on 3rd down offense (#3 FBS, 54%). Auburn has allowed just 16,24,27 and 0 in their past four games. ROLL TIDE will almost certainly get into the 30s but anything more than that will likely require a special teams or defensive score.
Auburn offense vs ROLL TIDE defense
We have harped on this before. The main problem with the Auburn offense (outside of shaky OL play) is their lack of ability to hit big plays on offense. Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with this trivia nugget. Auburn is dead last in the SEC in 20+ yard plays. Yup, behind Kentucky and LSU. What does that mean? Well you are not EVER going to beat ROLL TIDE just grinding your way down the field time after time. That is particularly true now that ROLL TIDE has an all-Galaxy throwing QB that will put points on the board. QB Jarrett Stidham has taken decent care of the football (4 INT in over 300 attempts) but has only thrown 12 TD passes in 11 games. There are just not a lot of legit weapons at his disposal. The RB unit is “ok” by Auburn standards. It feels like 17 points is the ceiling in this game for the Tigers.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
ROLL TIDE is outscoring SEC opposition 332-92….Auburn comes in with a 154-145 margin…..Recall that Auburn SHOCKED the WORLD last season by beating Alabama by a score of 26-14.
Summary
This is going to be a tough road for Auburn. Their D is more than capable of holding ROLL TIDE in relative check for portions of the game but the onslaught will happen at some point. It’s just physics. Or maybe something else. In any event, we worry about Auburn being able to produce enough offense to cover this number even though the 23-25 range is probably fair. We found this to be a tough game to feel confident about any particular wagering option but some advice appears below for those needing to get down.
Conclusion
Official play: None
Side: Slight lean to ROLL TIDE but only at -24 or better. There are a couple of rogue -24 lines out there in the marketplace as we go to press.
Total: No leanage.
Sidenote: IF you DO like Auburn, the best move may be to play their team total over 14 (as opposed to +24) because if they don’t score 14 it is highly unlikely they cover the spread. And they can score 14+ and lose by 30. That would still be a winner. Just a thought.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.