Auburn Tigers 2016 NCAA Football Preview
AUBURN TIGERS
Southeastern Conference – West Division
2015 Record – 7-6
ATS – 3-10
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #5 (Tie)
Conference #8 (Tie)
2015 Recap
Over the past three seasons – the Tigers have fallen from twelve wins and nearly winning a National Championship to needing a bowl victory over Memphis in order to finish with a winning record. The fact remains that as bad as 2015 seemed – they still won seven games. Auburn was 10th in the SEC in total offense and 13th in total defense. They could not get the offense rolling without production in the running game from their QBs. It was a team that seemed out of sorts from start to finish, and as a result, they finished a dismal 2-6 in conference play including an 0-4 record at home.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Without question the most important battle on the team is going to be at QB. Sean White and Jeremy Johnson both return in 2016 and while each had their moments last season – there was too much inconsistency in the passing game and a lack of explosiveness in the running game. The Tigers add Florida St transfer John Franklin III to the mix this year and he brings the desired mobility to the position but needs a bit more polish throwing the football.
Jovon Robinson takes over at RB and he ran for 645 yards in essentially half a season and picked up over 125 yards rushing in the bowl win over Memphis. There appears to be decent depth behind Robinson and the OL should be fine despite losing a couple of starters. There is concern at WR where the returning leader in receiving yards is Jason Smith who tallied 203 yards on 13 catches. The Tigers do have a ton of young talent that just might surprise some people, but nonetheless, it is still unproven at this point.
DEFENSE
The Tigers are hoping that new DC Kevin Steele (2105 – LSU) can help fix a defense that was 13th in the SEC in total defense and 13th in sacks per game. A full season from Carl Lawson will certainly help – but it has been a while since Auburn has had an SEC-caliber defense. The Tigers have allowed more than 400 yards per game in four of the last five years (2014 – 399) and they will need to tighten things up and get some pressure on the QB. The front 4 has some talent – as does the secondary – but the LB core looks to be a soft spot this season which does not bode well for SEC play.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Auburn may have the best special teams unit in the conference. 3rd team AA PK Daniel Carlson hit 8/10 from 40+ yards in 2015. They return a fine punter and excellent set of return men.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Auburn has a very difficult schedule but they do get to start the season with five straight home games – and two of those games are vs opponents from the Sun Belt. They also have eight home games in total and only FOUR road games – but sadly those games are all tough – at Mississippi St, at Ole Miss, at Georgia and at Alabama.
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season. Auburn is a team we are going to keep a very close eye on as there are a number of reasons we see them as a potential value play. The QB situation. Sure, it is big question mark – but there is serious upside when you think about what Malzahn might be able to do with Franklin III at QB or a combination of three guys. We also like the fact that there has been a huge overhaul with the coaching staff including a new DC and OL coach. This brings uncertainty – but it also may give us a chance at value against the spread. We also note that Auburn is on a 7-19 ATS run (27%) which includes 0-5 last year as a home favorite. It is unlikely that people are going to back Auburn with much enthusiasm, especially early on, and the Tigers just might be a money-maker in 2016. War Eagle.
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