College Football Predictions – Auburn Tigers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 5-8
It was a disappointing campaign for the Tigers and that makes four of the last five seasons with at least five losses. Their best record over that time horizon? The 10-4 mark in 2017. < Attention. This is a MEAGLOCKS Public Service Announcement: The next time UCF wants to claim themselves as National Champions, Olympic Gold Medal Volleyball champs, or winner of the Best Actor OSCAR award, keep this in mind. Beating Memphis 48 times doesn’t make you better than Clemson or ROLL TIDE. But we digress.>
Auburn needs to PICK THINGS UP if they want to be considered as challengers in the SEC. Last year they fell to LSU, Mississippi St, Georgia, and ROLL TIDE. Not to mention, Tennessee. Maybe the 63-14 beating of Purdue in the Music City Bowl will give them momentum coming into this season?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
SEC – #4
Auburn Tigers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Offensive “genius” Gus Malzahn needs to get things moving. The Tigers averaged 390 YPG last year (#11 SEC) and that marked the second time in the last four years that Auburn has averaged less than 400 YPG. This is Auburn. The SEC is better and more exciting when they are moving fast, scoring points, and driving opposing defenses crazy.
Problem: Auburn was LAST in the SEC in 20+ yard rushing plays last year. They are typically in the top-four. Our best guess on how to fix this issue is to get back to having a mobile QB. Good news! Former starting QB Jarrett Stidham was a relatively efficient passer but possessed limited mobility. Joey Gatewood is a big man and should be able to open things up for jet sweeps (etc..) by making defenses respect the power run. Freshman Bo Nix is in the discussion and might be a more polished passer. Let’s see what happens during fall camp.
The depth in the RB room looks really good as the Tigers return their top-three rushers from a season ago. They will be running behind a veteran offensive line that just HAS to be better this year. AMIRITE? Five senior returning starters. Auburn loses their top-two receivers but have a few interesting players on the depth chart including speedster Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams, who averaged over 20 YPC in 2018.
Auburn has scored between 30.9 and 33.9 PPG over the last three seasons. We forecast them hitting the top of that range, even with a new QB.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Auburn has allowed fewer than 20 PPG in each of the last three years and this campaign should be no different. The Tigers return seven starters and have one of the best defensive lines in college football. Three starters are back in the mix including star DT Derrick Brown and they are CHOCK FULL of size and talent. Auburn tallied 38 sacks a season ago (T3 SEC) and we expect another good season in the PENETRATION department. The secondary looks like one of the best in the SEC with four starters back for duty, and don’t forget these guys were pretty solid vs the pass in 2018 (16-14 TD to INT, 55.5%). The only concern on defense in a linebacker corps that loses leading tackler and 1st Team SEC performer Deshaun Davis (116 tackles, 15 TFL LY) who is off to the NFL (Bengals).
This defense looks like a rock. Expect them to be one of the premier stop units in the SEC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Looking good! The Tigers should sport a fine kicking game with PK Anders Carlson (13/16 FG inside 50 yards LY) and 2nd Team SEC punter Arryn Siposs (41.9 yard net) both back for duty. KR Noah Igbinoghene averaged 28 yards per return (TD) in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Auburn rarely takes the easy way out. Gotta respect that. This year’s non-conference slate looks pretty easy (Tulane, Kent St, Samford) other than the BIGGIE SIZE opener vs Oregon in Arlington. They draw Florida AND Georgia from the SEC East.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at LSU (October 26)
This will be Auburn’s 3rd consecutive road tilt (over a four week stretch) and this has been a home-team series over the past two decades. It might be a little much to expect Auburn to give an “A” or even “B+” performance and cover the number.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -135
Under 7.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks about right. The schedule is flat-out NASTY but this team is LOADED. If we had to make a choice, we’d go with the ‘over’.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Before each Auburn home football game, thousands of Tigers fans line Donahue Drive to cheer on the team as they walk from the Auburn Athletic Complex to Jordan-Hare Stadium. This tradition began in the 1950s when groups of kids would walk up the street to greet the team and get autographs. College football, baby!
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral
This team looks good. If they can get decent play out of their young QB(s) they will be capable of beating anyone on their schedule. ROLL TIDE? Maybe a reach, but never say never. Our best guess at the moment is that the Tigers will end up being a much better team than their eventual win-loss record indicates. There are just too many tough games on the docket.
Enough already. Auburn has had a tough time meeting market expectations over the last five years. Gus Malzahn has posted a 24-40-2 (37.5%) (!) ATS mark over that time horizon, and frankly, that makes us wonder if we shouldn’t just go ahead and stamp these guys with an overall “negative” ATS outlook. Nah. We just love ourselves some good defense and think the running game will be much improved. Pick your spots, but don’t be afraid to back these guys when perceived value emerges.
War Eagle!
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NEWS
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http://bleacherreport.com/auburn-football
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