College Football Championship – Alabama vs Georgia

College Football Championship – Alabama vs Georgia

posted January 7

The Game

The DATE with DESTINY has been confirmed as Georgia battles ROLL TIDE for all the marbles on Monday night. We all suspected this might be the case back in the summer, and here we are. ROLL TIDE blasted Georgia in the SEC Championship Game (W 41-24) and got to this game by handling Cincinnati with ease despite using an ultra-vanilla game plan (W 27-6). The Bulldogs absolutely DESTROYED Michigan in their semi-final (W 34-11) and will look to dish out some some REVENGE over Alabama and book a long-awaited National Championship.

Let’s goooooooooooooooooo !

The Details

Georgia -2.5 Alabama (52.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -1.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 27.5 Alabama 25

Georgia offense vs Alabama defense

The DAWGS offense is built around their deep and punishing rushing attack (#36 FBS) and a very efficient THROW GAME (#5 pass efficiency) behind QB Stetson Bennett. The SEC Championship Game didn’t work out well for a number of reasons. The run game didn’t get much done (30/109, long 14), they allowed 24 (!) points in the 2nd Q which took them out of the game plan, and they were a horrid 3/12 on 3rd downs. Can they get things turned around? Well the ROLL TIDE run D is still outstanding (#4 FBS) and they held Cincinnati to 74 net rushing yards in the semi-final. Bennett threw for 340 yards vs Alabama in their last meeting but it’s clear that he’s not as efficient when they NEED to move the ball thru the air (2 INT in that game). Bennett does a good job of distributing the ball to the WR/RB/TE weapons but their only real star is TE B Bowers who did good work in the SEC title game (10-139, TD). ROLL TIDE can be hit thru the air but they’re T1 in the SEC in INTs (15). Note that Alabama has a mediocre 14-5 TD to INT mark since the Tennessee game and it won’t help to be without Josh Jobe in the secondary. Georgia does a fine job of protecting the passer but the Tide got to Bennett three times in their last meeting.

Alabama offense vs Georgia defense

Heisman winner QB B Young was absolutely PHENOMENAL vs Georgia in the SEC title game (421, 3-0 TD to INT, 9.6) and will have to book another big game if ROLL TIDE wants to emerge as champs. The $88 billion question is this; will they be able to be as effective without WR J Metchie? He was a yuuuuge part of what made the THROW GAME so deadly, and outside of superstar WR J Williams, it’s not like they have a ton of big-time weapons. The strategy last week was to relentlessly pound the run and avoid trying to do too much vs the elite Cincinnati secondary. Williams had 7 grabs for 62 yards in that one and WR Ja’Correy Brooks showed promise (4 catches, 66Y). We expect a similar game plan as BOUT NUMBER ONE – Throw the ball. Georgia didn’t book a single sack (!) in that game and will need to find a way to get Young on the ground a few times. The Georgia run D was good but not great vs ROLL TIDE in the SEC title game (26-115) and they need to stiffen up and try and get Alabama into more 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations. The ideal game script would be to establish the THROW GAME (again) and mix it up with the run to keep Georgia off balance. ROLL TIDE is #2 (!) in the FBS in 3rd down conversions (52.7%) and were 7/14 in the title match. We expect a much more inspired performance from the Georgia defense and don’t expect Young to have a massive game without Metchie.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

This is not only a rematch of the SEC title game but a REBOOT of the CFP Championship final that ended the 2017 season…..ROLL TIDE found a way to come back and take down Georgia in a 26-23 OT thriller thanks to TUA coming off the bench and coming up with the “2nd and 26” miracle TD pass to DeVonta Smith…….The game will be played in Indianapolis and thankfully this bad boy will be indoors…..some cold weather there right now, yo……The great Nick Saban has led the Tide to an impossible SIX National Titles……ROLL TIDE is 1-4 ATS in CFP finals.

Summary

It’d be completely reasonable to side with either team in this game. We lean towards the more consistent team, and that is Georgia. After the opening win over Clemson they rolled through the regular season like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE. 56-7. 40-13. 62-0. 37-0. 34-10. 30-13. 34-7. 43-6. 41-17. 56-7. 45-0. They got beat handily by ROLL TIDE but came back with a dominating victory over a rock solid Michigan squad. Alabama gets full credit for their accomplishments but were life and death to beat Florida, Auburn, and LSU. And WOO PIG SOOIE gave them all they could handle. Your pal Kirby Smart hasn’t proven his chops in a big game but we’ll call for a win and a title.

Conclusion

Lean – Georgia -2.5

<Note for Award-winning MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB MEMBERS…….We’ve come down with a case of HEDGEITIS and will be making a small play on ROLL TIDE ML to offset some of our Georgia +880 National title exposure….See Futures and Season Win Total blog post for more details….If you didn’t partake in that SWEET ACTION we lean Georgia -2.5…..GL and enjoy the game!>


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2021 Texas Bowl – LSU vs Kansas St

2021 Texas Bowl – LSU vs Kansas St

posted January 3

The Game

We get one more TASTY BOWL TREAT before the CFP Championship Game as LSU faces Kansas St in the Texas Bowl. The Tigers have been thru a lot on and off the field this year and roll into town with a mark of 6-6. They won their final two regular season games to get to bowl season and recall that they booked wins over Florida, Mississippi St, and Texas A&M. They also gave ROLL TIDE all they could handle (L 20-14). Kansas St (7-5) had a four-game winning streak come to an end at the conclusion of the regular season when they dropped their final two contests (Baylor, Texas).

The Details

Kansas St -7 LSU (47.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Kansas St -7

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Kansas St 27.25 LSU 20.25

Kansas St offense vs LSU defense

It appears as tho 17-year starter *** S Thompson will be healthy and good to go for this one and that’s great for the Wildcats. He doesn’t run much but is an effective passer who’s got veteran SAVVY (69%, 9-4 TD to INT, 9.0). RB Deuce Vaughn is one of the most exciting players in the Big 12 who makes everything work (1258, 15 TDs, 47 receptions, #1 team). The WR/TE group is nothing special so the Tigers shouldn’t have too many problems handling the THROW GAME despite ranking #92 in the FBS in pass efficiency D. They’ve been pretty good vs the run (#42 FBS, 137 YPG) and don’t forget that they held Texas A&M to 54 yards and didn’t allowing a rushing TD in any of their last three games. LSU is mid-pack in the SEC in sacks whilst Kansas St is mid-pack in the Big 12 in sacks allowed.

*** needs fact check

LSU offense vs Kansas St defense

There are a lot of question marks for the LSU offense and it’s still unclear as we approach press time who will get the start at QB. True freshman G Nussmeier didn’t look horrible during the regular season in limited action but we don’t know if he’ll play. Another game would blow his redshirt and LSU and trying to get a redshirt that would preserve said redshirt. If he’s unable to go, it could get ugly with scrubs and WRs next on the depth chart. It doesn’t get much better when you consider that 1000-yard RB T Davis-Price has quit and recall that star WR K Boutte was injured (OFY) earlier in the year. Much like LSU, the Cats have been solid vs the run (#26, 126 YPG) but weaker vs the pass (#70 pass eff D). That suggests Kansas St will be able to hold down the LSU run game even tho we expect to see some talented specimens get their first real game action.

UPDATE – it looks like Nussmeier is a no-go

Trends, Intangibles and More!

LSU has won their last three bowl games but will be rolling with an interim HC in this bad boy before Brian Kelly takes over……Kansas St is 9-13 all-time in bowl action and 0-1 under HC Chris Klieman…..The Tigers haven’t finished below .500 this century (!) ### but are a mediocre 11-11 over the L2Y…..Kansas St can book their 4th 8+ win season in the L6 campaigns with a win…..LSU’s roster was hit by the PANDEMIC OF THE VACCINATED and could have some guys….even more….miss the game.

### doesn’t need fact check, yo

Summary

Kansas St has to be the more motivated bunch? AMIRITE? Hard to see LSU’s offense getting 21+.

Conclusion

Lean – LSU TT under 20.25 (implied) (do see 20.5s out there)


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2021 Sugar Bowl – Ole Miss vs Baylor

2021 Sugar Bowl – Ole Miss vs Baylor

posted December 31

The Game

This should be a great end to New Year’s Day SWEET football ACTION as Ole Miss battles Baylor in the Sugar Bowl. The LANE TRAIN has the Rebels playing exciting football and they bring a 10-2 record to the table. Their losses came vs ROLL TIDE and Auburn. The Bears are the CHAMPS of the Big 12 thanks to a great defensive stand vs Oklahoma St. Year two of the Dave Aranda era has been a yuuuuge success (11-2).

Let’s do ittttttt !

The Details

Ole Miss -1.5 Baylor (55.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Ole Miss -2.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ole Miss 28.5 Baylor 27

Ole Miss offense vs Baylor defense

We get one more shot to see MATT CORRAL MAN CRUSH in action and he’s been phenomenal this year (20-4 TD to INT, 68%, 597 rush, 11 TDs). He’s smart. Tough. Laser Rocket Arm. And notice he didn’t quit on his team. He’ll be playing on Sundays. He leads the #20 passing attack and their run game is no slouch either with four doods having between 542-703 rushing yards. The time off should definitely help those who’ve been hobbled by injuries including Corral. HC Dave Aranda has great DEFENSIVE CHOPS but will have his hands full coming up with a good game plan. The extra time off will likely help. The Bears are strong vs the run (#15 FBS) and the pass (#31) but will face a stern test from a deep and talented receiving corps. One point of worry for the Rebels is the fact that they rank 2nd last in the SEC in  TFL allowed per game whilst Baylor is pretty good at PENETRATING (#4 TFL Big 12).

Baylor offense vs Ole Miss defense

It appears as we approach press time that starting QB G Bohanon will be good to go and he’s a legit dual-threat (17-6 TD to INT, 303, 9 rush TDs). The THROW GAME targets are varied (WR/TE/RB) and they mix it up pretty well. WR T Thornton (946, 9 TD) should bust out over the 1000-yard barrier in this one. The Bears should be able to run the ball on the Ole Miss D (#101, 181 YPG) and control the time of possession battle to a large extent. They’ll just need to finish drives off with TDs instead of FGs. Ole Miss has been pretty good vs the pass (#36 pass eff D, 13-10 TD to INT) but Baylor might be able to hit some deep shots if they can establish an effective ground game.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

The LANE TRAIN is 2-2 in bowl games in his career (1-0 with Ole Miss) and they’re 24-14 all-time….This will be Dave Aranda’s first kick at the cat in terms of being a HC in a bowl game but he obviously has a lot of experience in big games given his time at Wisconsin and LSU….The SEC hasn’t fared that well so far in 2021 bowl action so that’s something to keep in the back of your mind….Maybe that changes after this preview is published?

Summary

The line looks about right. We’ve flipped back and forth between leaning Ole Miss and taking the over. Might take a small sprinkle on each. Slight favoritism to the more potent offense.

Conclusion

Lean – Ole Miss -1.5


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2021 Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs Oklahoma St

2021 Fiesta Bowl – Notre Dame vs Oklahoma St

posted December 31

The Game

It’s a big-time duel in the desert, yo.

Oklahoma St literally came within inches of winning the Big 12 Championship when they fell to Baylor (L 21-16). They also fell to Iowa St in a close one and roll into paradise with a record off 11-2 with the two losses coming by a combined 8 points. Notre Dame came close to making the CFP (again) and their only loss came to playoff participant Cincinnati (L 24-13).

Let’s do itttttt !

The Details

Notre Dame -2 Oklahoma St (45)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick em

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Notre Dame 23.5 Oklahoma St 21.5

Notre Dame offense vs Oklahoma St defense

The offense has been good but not great (#73 rush offense, #33 pass) over the course of 2021 but it’s certainly started to look better now that QB J Coan has established himself as the starter (68%, 20-6 TD to INT). K Austin is a legit #1 WR (783, 18.6, 6 TD) and TE M Mayer (768, 5 TD) is close to uncoverable. The bad news? They’ve been inconsistent with the rushing attack and will be without 1000-yard RB K Williams who also caught 42 balls (T2 team). Oklahoma St plays phenomenal D and are gonna make it tough for the Irish in this one. They’ve got the #3 D in the country (!) (278 YPG) and are absolutely NASTY on 3rd downs (#2, 26%) and are tied for the FBS lead in sacks with 54 (!). Notre Dame has allowed 33 sacks and QB J Coan avoids the rush like his feet are nailed to the ground.

Oklahoma St offense vs Notre Dame defense

This isn’t your DADDY’S explosive and deadly Oklahoma St offense, yo. They’re at best METHODICAL PLODDERS but do have a couple of key pieces. QB S Sanders makes a few too many boo boos (16-12 TD to INT) but he’s a proven winner with excellent mobility (543, 6 TD). RB J Warren is a BEEEEST (11334, 11 TD) and was unavailable for the Big 12 title game. Notre Dame plays fine D (again) and have allowed just 6,3,0,14 L4G. They’ll be without star safety K Hamilton but he’s missed quite a bit of time this year.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

It’ll be strange to see the Irish take the field without their long-time and excellent HC Brian Kelly who’s off to LSU……Oklahoma St is close to an auto-bet in bowl games (10-5) under Mike Gundy….They took down YOUR Miami Hurricanes 37-34 in the Cheez-It Bowl at the end of the 2020 casedemic season and have won 4L5 bowl games.

Summary

The under looks tempting but we were hoping for a number in the 47 range. That was never gonna happen we suppose but it can’t hurt to dream. We’ll roll with the Cowboys as they have the coaching edge and the slightly better D.

Conclusion

Lean – Oklahoma St +2


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2021 Outback Bowl – Arkansas vs Penn St

2021 Outback Bowl – Arkansas vs Penn St

posted December 31

The Game

“By Jingo! A dingo ate my baby. Throw some shrimp on the barbie, mate!”

It’s time to roll into the OUTBACK and watch some Big Ten vs SEC action. Penn St had their second consecutive disappointing campaign and are now 11-10 since the start of the 2020 plandemic season. They’d love to finish the year on a high note and roll into 2022 with some momentum. Arkansas was one of the best stories of the year and they exceeded expectations by finishing the regular season with a record of 8-4. They held their own in the deadly SEC West and took down LSU and Texas A&M along the way.

Let’s goooooooooooooo !

The Details

Arkansas -2.5 Penn St (48.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Arkansas -3

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Arkansas 25.5 Penn St 23

Arkansas offense vs Penn St defense

The HOGS have one of the best rushing attacks in the country (#12 FBS, 217 YPG) and have one of the deepest RB rooms around. They have three RBs with 498+ rush yards (Smith, Sanders, Johnson) and don’t forget that QB KJ Jefferson is 2nd on the team with 554 yards on the ground. Jefferson is also a very efficient passer and he’s only tossed 3 INTs all year (67%, 21-3 TD to INT, 9.4). He’ll be without #1 target WR T Burks (1104, 11 TD) so that definitely stings. Expect WOO PIG to use their devastating ground game to pound the Penn St D. Illinois rushed for 357 and four of their last six opponents booked 140+ rush yards. Note that Penn St’s top two tacklers (LBs Smith, Brooks) quit as did safety J Brisker.

Penn St offense vs Arkansas defense

The Nittany Lions have struggled mightily on offense and haven’t been able to do anything on the ground (#118 FBS, 106 YPG). QB S Clifford is tough, doesn’t make many mistakes (20-6 TD to INT), but will be without their best offensive player (only dangerous one?) in WR J Dotson (1182, 12 TD). It’s hard to see Penn St having consistent success or hitting many big plays so they’ll just try and grind it out and hopefully take advantage of WOO PIG mistakes. Arkansas is nothing special on defense (#70 run, #51 pass eff D) so it’s not like Penn St will be taking on a brick wall. Penn St has allowed 32 sacks (2nd worst Big Ten) but WOO PIG will be without ace DE T Williams.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Penn St HC James Franklin is 3-3 in bowl games with the Nittany Lions……This is Sam Pittman’s first bowl game and it comes in year two of the rebuilding program…..HOG players gotta be jacked and their are a lot of veterans playing their last game in this one….Last year’s bowl game with TCU was cancelled due to the sniffles….WOO PIG’s last bowl win came back in the 2015 Liberty when they took down Kansas St (W 45-23)……Arkansas is #101 in time of possession….Penn St #106 so there may be stretches of time where neither team has the ball….it’s just math **.

** needs fact check

Summary

We’ll roll with what we believe is the much more motivated team with the excellent ground game.

Conclusion

Official play – Arkansas -2.5 -110 <sent 9:52am Dec 31>


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

Bowl pick 5

Saturday, January 1. 12pm EST

Arkansas -2.5 -110

Rotation #275

-2.5 -110 to -116 widely available

sent 9:52am EST Dec 31.

As you know, there are dozens of head coaching changes, players quitting, injuries, suspensions, etc. We will be selective as always. L3Y sent out 3,4,9 bowl plays. There are detailed write-ups on every bowl game and there’s no reason you can’t have a bit more SWEET ACTION and play  additional games if you agree with the handicapping logic. ALSO – the PANDEMIC OF THE VACCINATED is shockingly starting to bubble up so it’s another reason to be cautious.

GL and PLAY SAFE!


As always, game write-ups and analysis can be found here…..

Game Analysis

2021 Cotton Bowl – Alabama vs Cincinnati

2021 Cotton Bowl – Alabama vs Cincinnati

posted December 30

The Game

Here we go.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are the only undefeated team in college football and represent the first Group of Five team to make the CFP. They didn’t play the toughest schedule (#77 Sagarin) but took care of their best opponents relatively easily (Houston, SMU, Notre Dame). ROLL TIDE fell to Texas A&M around the midpoint of the campaign and they cobbled their way through the remainder of the docket to win the SEC West. They pulled a quasi-miracle comeback vs Auburn in the Iron Bowl and they smoked the mighty Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game.

Let’s do ittttttttttttttttttt !

The Details

Alabama -13.5 Cincinnati (57.5)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Alabama -12

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: ROLL TIDE 35.5 Cincinnati 22

Alabama offense vs Cincinnati defense

It all starts with YOUR Heisman Trophy winner QB B Young who’s been outstanding in year one as the ROLL TIDE starter (68%, 43-4 TD to INT). The THROW GAME ripped Georgia (and many others) to shreds but they’ll have to deal with the excellent Cincinnati pass defense (#1 FBS pass eff D, 10-18 TD to INT) in this one. And note that one of their 1000-yard WRs in out for this game (J Metchie). That dood was CLUTCH and will be missed. They still have one of the most explosive players in the nation in WR J Williams (1445, 21.3, 15 TD) but no other proven commodities at WR. They have a pair of decent receiving TEs but it just might be tough sledding thru the air. We expect a heavy dose of 1000-yd RB R Robinson who’s had time to heal up and he’s a BROKEN TACKLE MACHINE that should abuse the Cincinnati run D (#44) for stretches at a time. Auburn was able to get a lot of heat on Young but Georgia had no such luck. Alabama has allowed 35 sacks (#12 SEC) and the Bearcats are #2 in the AAC in sacks (37). Cincinnati has to respect the ability of Williams in the medium to deep range and we expect ROLL TIDE to be more focus on the run and short passes. 3rd down should be interesting as Alabama is #2 in that situation whilst Cincy is #20 on D.

Cincinnati offense vs Alabama defense

The Bearcats have a balanced and efficient offense (#48 rush, #10 pass efficiency) led by star QB D Ridder who can beat you with his arm and his mobility (30-8 TD to INT, 6 rush TD). He struggles with accuracy at times but you can rarely have everything. Eight doods have 200+ receiving yards and the WR group is an underrated bunch led by future NFL draftee A Pierce (867, 8 TD). RB J Ford has rushed for well over 1200 yards and 19 (!) TDs and will have to get things going on early downs. ROLL TIDE is going to provide an immense challenge for the ground game as they are #4 in the country in run D (83 YPG) and the Cincinnati OL is probably the weakness (if there is one on this squad) that can be exploited. ROLL TIDE has allowed more than 110 rushing yards in just one game all year (Florida, mid-Sept, 244) and have allowed just 8 rushing TDs in 13G. Four of those came vs the Gators. They’re pretty average in the secondary (#66 pass eff D) but we’re not sure that Ridder can consistently MATRICULATE the ball down the field effectively, especially if the ground attack isn’t working well. Also note that Alabama has tallied 46 sacks (#3 FBS) and will provide the sternest test of the year for the Bearcats OL. They’ve done a decent job protecting the passer (20 sacks, #2 AAC) so this should be a fun battle to watch.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Double-digit favs in the CFP are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS…..ROLL TIDE is 17/21 on FGA…..Cincinnati is an impossibly-bad 7/17……Cincinnati has only lost one game in the L2Y and that came in last season’s Peach Bowl when they dropped a close one to Georgia (L 24-21).

Summary

We expect a measured and physical approach from the ROLL TIDE offense and don’t expect Cincinnati to have much success on the ground. There’s also a good chance that Cincinnati leaves a few points on the field due to the kicking game. Don’t foresee a high-scoring affair.

Conclusion

Official play – Under 57 -108. <sent Dec 31 9:03am>


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

Bowl pick 4 (today)

Friday, December 31. 3:30pm EST

Alabama / Cincinnati under 57 -108

Rotation #274

there are still some 57.5s out there

sent 9:03 EST Dec 31

As you know, there are dozens of head coaching changes, players quitting, injuries, suspensions, etc. We will be selective as always. L3Y sent out 3,4,9 bowl plays. There are detailed write-ups on every bowl game and there’s no reason you can’t have a bit more SWEET ACTION and play  additional games if you agree with the handicapping logic. ALSO – the PANDEMIC OF THE VACCINATED is shockingly starting to bubble up so it’s another reason to be cautious.

GL and PLAY SAFE!


As always, game write-ups and analysis can be found here…..

Game Analysis

2021 Citrus Bowl – Kentucky vs Iowa

2021 Rose Bowl – Kentucky vs Iowa

posted December 30

The Game

SEC vs Big Ten action, yo.

The Iowa Hawkeyes SOMEHOW, SOME WAY managed to win the Big Ten West and snag a berth in the Big Ten Championship. Sadly, they took it PULP FICTION GIMP STYLE in a loss to Michigan (L 42-3). They’ll be looking for REDEMPTION in this one and face a scrappy Kentucky squad who’s booked nine wins and is almost always a sure bet to play like their hair is on fire.

Citrus Bowl action, buh buh. Let’s gooooooooooooooooo !

The Details

Kentucky -3 Iowa (44)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Kentucky -1

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Kentucky 23.5 Iowa 20.5

Kentucky offense vs Iowa defense

The Cats BUTTER THEIR BREAD with a potent ground attack that averages 206 YPG (#24 FBS). RB C Rodriguez does a great job when not fumbling every 3rd carry (1272, 8 TD) and QB W Levis is sneaky good with his legs (387, 9 TD). Iowa is excellent vs the run (#13 FBS, 114 YPG) but in 2L4G they allowed 189 rush yards to the Gophers and 211 yards to Michigan. Levis has his moments in the THROW GAME but makes too many mistakes (23-12 TD to INT) and he’ll be without two weapons in #2 WR J Ali and TE I Epps. WR W Robinson is one of the most potent weapons in the SEC (94, 1164, 7 TD) and will be the primary focus of the Iowa pass D. The Hawkeyes are #4 in the nation in pass eff D and are #1 (!) in the FBS with 24 INTs.

Iowa offense vs Kentucky defense

Yuck. The offense had been described as a steaming pile of BUFFALO DUNG before BUFFALO DUNG ACTIVISTS complained about said dung being unfairly portrayed. They probably have the worst offense of any team that’s ever won a division title (#111, #110) and will be without their best offensive player in RB T Goodson (1151 rush yds, 31 receptions). They have a mediocre 11-8 TD to INT mark between the two QBs and their best THROW GAME target is TE M LePorta (46, 548, 2 TD). There’s not much to write home about in the WR room. Kentucky is nothing special on D but good enough to hold Iowa in check (#4 SEC total defense).

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Kentucky HC Mark Stoops is 3-2 in bowl games and note that they’ve won three straight…..by a combined 12 points…..but wins are wins buh, buh…..Iowa HC K Ferentz is 9-8 in bowl action and the Hawkeyes have also won three straight…..Last year’s Music City Bowl was cancelled due to the TRUST THE SCIENCE scamdemic which is still HERDING SHEEP as we approach press time.

Summary

It’s REALLY hard to make a case for Iowa. Having said that, they’re REALLY good at taking the ball away (30 takeaways, #4 FBS) and the Cats are (-13) in turnover margin (#127). Have the think that Iowa is gonna have a tough time generating much offense at all.

Conclusion

Lean – Kentucky -3


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.

2021 Rose Bowl – Ohio St vs Utah

2021 Rose Bowl – Ohio St vs Utah

posted December 30

The Game

It’s the GRANDDADDY of them all, yo.

The 10-2 Ohio St Buckeyes lost to Michigan for the first time since the invention of the steam engine *** and find themselves out of the CFP and in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. They’ll battle the PAC 12 champs from Utah (10-3) who SIZZLED down the stretch winning their final six games. They smoked Oregon on two occasions.

Let’s goooooo !

*** needs fact check

The Details

Ohio St -4 Utah (64)

MEGALOCKS LINE – Ohio St -6.5

“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Ohio St 34 Utah 30

Ohio St offense vs Utah defense

The Buckeyes boast the #1 total offense (551 YPG) and #1 scoring offense (45.5 PPG) in the country and are led by superstar QB C.J. Stroud (3862, 38-5 TD to INT). They HAD the best WR group in the nation but two of three doods that tallied 900+ receiving yards have chosen to quit. C Olave and G Wilson had combined for 1995 yards and an impossible 25 TDs. #1 WR J Smith-Njigba is a star and the hope is that a few talented young specimens emerge in the THROW GAME. RB T Henderson is an absolute monster (1165, 7.0, 15 TD) but he hasn’t booked a 100-yard game since October. Utah is mighty tough vs the run (#20 FBS, 120 YPG) so it appears it’ll be up to Stroud to have a yuuuge game. Utah has been good vs the pass (#23 pass eff D) but will be missing some doods on the back end. The Utes lead the PAC 12 in sacks (42) but the Buckeyes have only allowed 17 sacks in 12G.

Utah offense vs Ohio St defense

The Utah offense has been REALLY good under QB C Rising who just might be one of the more underrated QBs in the entire country (63%, 18-5 TD to INT, 407 rush, 5 TD). They’ve got a powerful rushing attack (#13 FBS, 216 YPG) that’s DEEP and led by a legit #1 RB in T Thomas (1041, 20 TD). They do enough in the THROW GAME (#87 passing offense) and rely on their RBs to do damage thus opening up the AIR WAVES. They have a pair of excellent receiving TEs (Kuithe, Kincaid) that will need to be accounted for by the Ohio St pass D (#38 pass eff D). We worry about Ohio St’s ability to hold up at the point of attack and recall that Michigan absolutely steamrolled them on the ground in the regular season finale (297, 7.2, 6 TD), and note that Ohio St’s star DT H Garrett is another player who announced he’s quitting.

Trends, Intangibles and More!

Ohio St HC Ryan Day is 1-2 in bowl games including last year’s loss in the CFP Championship vs ROLL TIDE (L 52-24)…..The last time the Buckeyes played in the Rose Bowl they took down Washington (W 28-23) in what was LETCH Meyer’s last game as HC….Utah HC K Whittingham is a fantastic 11-3 SU in bowl action but have dropped their last two.

Summary

By all accounts the Utes are REALLY jacked up for this one and they’re the more physical team. Can’t trust a team that has players bailing on the regular.

Conclusion

Lean – Utah +4


Note:

‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.

‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.

‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.