AutoNation Cure Bowl – Tulane vs Louisiana
The Game
The tradition is rich. The pageantry is real. It’s the Cure Bowl.
It’s a Sun Belt vs AAC showdown as Tulane takes on Louisiana-Lafayette in Orlando on the opening day of bowl season. Tulane became bowl-eligible in dramatic fashion in the last game of the season with a 29-28 victory over Navy. It took a late two-point conversion to GIT ER DONE but the Green Wave are bowling for the first time since 2013. Louisiana gave the JUGGERNAUT Appalachian St Mountaineers all they could handle in the Sun Belt Championship game but dropped a 30-19 decision in Boone, NC.
It’s the BATTLE OF LOUISIANA, BABY.
The Details
Tulane -3.5 Louisiana (59)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Tulane -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Tulane 31.25 Louisiana 27.75
The Match-Up:
Tulane offense vs Louisiana defense
The Green Wave won four of their last five games to get into the postseason and they can thank QB Justin McMillan according to our TULANE INSIDERS. McMillan took over from an injured Jonathan Banks and finished up with a 9-3 TD to INT ratio and four rushing TDs. The completion rate was subpar (50%) but this is an offense that relies on running the ball and hitting deep shots (for the most part) when MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game. Tulane will have a new OC for this game as despite having some good weapons to work with they only averaged 26 PPG. The RB duo of Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine rushed for 1,700+ yards and 16 TDs and WR Darnell Mooney averaged 21 yards per reception and is a virtual LOCK to surpass 1,000 yards on the season (984). The Cajuns’ stop unit is a big concern as they are ranked #96 in total defense, #107 in rushing defense and #112 in pass efficiency defense. They also have trouble getting off the field on 3rd downs (#114 FBS). The good news? They managed to hold Troy to 26 and Appalachian St to 27 and 30 in their two road meetings. One way or another, the Cajuns have not been lit up too often when facing teams outside of the SEC. Tulane will get their points but it’s hard to imagine them going bananas.
Louisiana offense vs Tulane defense
QB Andre Nunez led the team to a division title in 2018 but had his ups and downs with the THROW GAME. Nunez has completed 64% of his passes with 19 TD passes but has also tossed 12 INTs. The game will be won or lost based on the ability of the Cajuns to get their excellent run game in gear (#19 FBS). Trey Ragas, Elijah Mitchell and Raymond Calais combined to rush for over 2,800 (!) yards and 26 (!) TDs and will be a handful for the Green Wave rush defense. Tulane has bagged a surprising 35 sacks this year (just 14 in 2017) and we expect Louisiana to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible and try and stay out of long down and distance situations. WR Ja’Marcus Bradley leads the team with 557 yards receiving and 10 TDs. So can Tulane slow down the Cajun rushing attack? Well they are #2 in the AAC in run defense (153 yards per game) and did a fine job vs the run in their final six games. YPC allowed in those contests were 1.13, 3.86, 3.09, 3.46, 6.21 (Houston) and 2.60 (Navy). The Tulane pass defense definitely has some holes (#114 passing yards allowed) so it will be interesting to see how effective Louisiana will be if they can’t get the rushing attack rolling. It’s hard to imagine Tulane stopping things cold but the Cajuns will probably not be able to run wild.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Tulane hasn’t won a bowl game since 2002 when they defeated Hawaii on their home turf….Their last bowl appearance?…..the 2013 New Orleans Bowl when they lost to…..wait for it…..the Ragin Cajuns…Speaking of Louisiana-Lafayette they lost six games but FIVE of those were understandable…..at ROLL TIDE, at Mississippi St, at Appalachian St (twice), at Troy.
Summary
This feels like a coin toss. Both teams are looking to book winning records and can achieve that goal with a victory. How will Tulane react after storming the field in their final game? It seems to us that the Green Wave will be happier to be in this spot as the Cajuns were hoping for another trip to the New Orleans Bowl. Fun fact. That is the only bowl game that Louisiana-Lafayette has ever known.
From a fundamental standpoint, we trust the Ragin Cajun offense a bit more than the Tulane defense and think they can move the ball on the ground. Is it possible that the Louisiana D is a bit better than advertised? May need some more time to think about this game.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Slight lean to Louisiana.
Total: No leanage.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.