Bahamas Bowl – FIU vs Toledo
The Game
It’s better in the Bahamas, baby.
The loser TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY may complain about this game but we always look forward to the Bahamas Bowl. The overwhelming majority of the players (100% ??) have never been to the Bahamas and TRUST US……it’s amazing. Toledo comes into this contest playing some good football winning four of their last five games while the Panthers also finished well winning six of their last eight contests. Let’s go!
The Details
Toledo -6 FIU (68.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Toledo -3.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Toledo 37.25 FIU 31.25
The Match-Up:
Toledo offense vs FIU defense
The Rockets have been pretty good on offense this season and rely on their excellent rushing attack (#22 FBS) to do most of the dirty work. Bryant Koback, Art Thompkins and Shakif Seymour have combined for almost 2,000 yards and 24 (!) TDs on the ground. That’s bad news for the FIU run defense that’s ranked #99 in the FBS (#13 C-USA – 198 YPG allowed). QB Eli Peters has been good enough down the stretch but has only completed 54.6% of his passes (15-7 TD to INT). The Rockets were more explosive with Mitchell Guadagni at QB but he was lost for the season due to injury. Peters doesn’t provide any mobility but the Panthers have only bagged 21 sacks this season. The good news for Florida International? They are #1 in C-USA in turnover margin (+9) and have come up with 17 (!) INTs this year. The Rockets have a rock solid trio at WR (top-3 – 24 TDs) and should be able to do some damage when the run game gets rolling and FIU has to commit more bodies up front. (Note: Thompkins has now announced his transfer from Toledo and will not play in the bowl game)
FIU offense vs Toledo defense
QB James Morgan has flown below the national radar but has had a really fine season whilst leading the team to eight wins (65%, 26-7 TD to INT). The Panthers are #12 in the FBS in passing efficiency and nine different players have caught TD passes this year. Toledo has given up a lot of yards through the air this season (258 YPG, 2nd last in the MAC) but they are decent enough in terms of pass efficiency defense (#57 FBS, 19-12 TD to INT). We like the match-up in the passing game for FIU and Morgan should be able to MATRICULATE the ball down the field to a variety of targets. The Panthers have a committee at RB led by Napoleon Maxwell (673, 7 TD) and are an average running team. Toledo allows 172 YPG game on the ground. It seems to us that FIU should have success in this one. The best thing the Rockets have going for them is a legit pass rush that has come up with 34 sacks (#2 MAC) but FIU has only allowed 8 (!!) sacks all season.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Both teams are coming off bowl BEATINGS in 2017…..Toledo got smoked 34-0 by Appalachian St and FIU lost 28-3 to Temple…..MAC teams are just 4-10 ATS in bowl games vs Conference USA foes although Ohio did a number on UAB (41-6) in last season’s edition of the Bahamas Bowl…..FIU has only won ONE bowl game in school history and that came back in the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl when they beat………wait for it…………..the Toledo Rockets.
Summary
This line seems a bit high to us BUT the Rockets have a really nice match-up in this contest that features their relentless run game vs a soft run defense. Toledo is the better team on paper but we wonder about two things…..1) The head coach match-up favors the Panthers in a yuuuuuge way 2) Will the (likely) hot and humid weather favor the Panthers? Can’t see either team laying an egg and we should have two motivated squads. FWIW – FIU is trying to bag a school record 9th win.
NOTE – subsequent to posting the analysis for this game we have learned that starting QB James Morgan is OUT …..and the weather will be very windy. Proceed with caution. The smartest move if you need action will be to play in-game wagers….Try and gauge if the weather is better or worse than the in-game models are pricing into things. It will also be good to see how the back-up QB does in the first few series. GL!
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to FIU. Would recommend waiting for a +7. If it doesn’t get there consider just playing the ML.
Total: Lean to the under. FIU is 10-2 to the under 68.5 in their 12 games.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.