Ball St Cardinals 2016 NCAA Football Preview
BALL ST CARDINALS
MACtion – West Division
2015 Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
West Division #5
Conference #10
2015 Recap
The Cardinals could only manage wins against VMI, Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts and finished up with a record of 3-9. Their combined record over the 2012 and 2013 seasons was 19-7. Pete Lembo did a pretty decent job at Ball St during his tenure but left the program after the season for a job with the Terrapins. Ball St Hall-of-Famer with Arena League experience Mike Neu takes over the reigns in 2016.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Riley Neal had a promising freshman season for the Cardinals and is the favorite to lead the Cardinals at QB this season. Neal has good mobility and only threw 6 interceptions in almost 400 attempts last year. They did not take too many shots down the field but the feeling is that they will be more aggressive in 2016. The WR group will have to find a playmaker to replace leading receiver Jordan Williams who departs. KeVonn Mabon caught 70 balls last season but they still need to find another option or two.
The Cardinals’ two leading rushers are both back this season, and while they were productive, neither have the kind of size you need to be true #1 backs. Green is listed at 5-8 176 and Gilbert at 5-8 191. When you include QB Neal’s ability to run it appears that the Cardinals have the necessary tools to have a decent running game.
Muncie, Indiana. We have a problem. The offensive line returns only ONE starter from last season’s group which did a pretty good job (4.2 yards per carry; only 11 sacks allowed). That has to be Mike Neu’s #1 concern heading into the season.
DEFENSE
After two good seasons defensively, the Cardinals’ stop unit fell to pieces last year. They had a nice 3-game stretch early on against EMU, Northwestern and Toledo but by the end of the year they were giving up 54,48,48 playing out the string.
We have a pretty good feeling about the defense heading into 2016. They have a couple of 1st Team MAC performers in DE Joshua Posley and LB Sean Wiggins. DT Darnell Smith is back after missing 2015 with injury, and the secondary returns all four starters to the group. The pass rush has to be better (only 17 sacks last season) and the secondary cannot give up another mind-boggling 71% completions. It is a bit of a leap of faith, but we think they will improve by a TD+ on defense this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
P Kyle Schmidt had a decent year in 2015 and the Cardinals finished 3rd in the MAC in net punting. Their return game was excellent as they ranked 1st in the conference in punt return average and 3rd in kickoff return average. All these pieces return. PK Morgan Hagee was fine from short range (14/15 inside 40 yards) but was erratic from further out (2/6 from 40+ yards).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
When we hear about their tough schedule, we have to politely disagree. Sure, they could lose ten games, but they also have six or seven winnable games on the docket. We will say that having five road games in the first seven weeks of the season makes us feel that someone should be fired. Even if nobody is responsible. That early stretch will not be easy.
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season. The defense will be a lot better and we really like their young QB. We do worry quite a bit about that offensive line and it is always difficult to trust a new HC who does not have an FBS track record. Ball St is coming off a 9-15 run ATS the past two seasons and will likely be under even the lowest radar heading into 2016. On the fence. Watching and waiting.
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