College Football Predictions – Baylor Bears 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 7-6
It’s not easy to increase your win total by a factor of SEVEN but that’s exactly what Baylor did last year. Coming off a one-win season the Bears cobbled their way through the schedule and found six wins. They added #7 during bowl season with a 45-38 win over Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl.
Baylor is clearly on the right track under the leadership of Matt Rhule. How high should we set the expectations for 2019?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #5
Baylor Bears 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Baylor has all the elements required to inflict damage on their opponents. QB Charlie Brewer threw for over 3,000 yards last season and is very likely to take a step forward in his junior campaign. There are plenty of interesting targets to choose from when Brewer selects to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the passing game. Last year’s leading receiver Jalen Hurd is off to the NFL (49ers) but essentially everyone else is back in the WR group including Chris Platt, Denzel Mims and Tyquan Thornton who all averaged over 14 yards per catch and combined for 12 TDs LY. The RB group is a bit of a mystery given that last year’s leading rusher John Lovett (573, 6 TD LY) has been moved to safety. It has the look of RB by committee. The offensive line will continue to improve and provide a solid foundation for the offense with three returning starters back for duty.
Baylor should be able to average over 30 PPG (29.5 LY) and keep them in every game.
DEFENSE
If the Bears want to take a step forward in the Big 12 and be a legitimate contender they need to shore up a defense that has allowed an average of 34 PPG over the past two seasons. The Bears were #6 in pass efficiency defense in the Big 12 LY and #9 (!) vs the run (183 YPG) so there is some improvement to be made across the board.
Seven returning starters are back on defense and eight of the top ten tacklers from a season ago. The DL looks pretty solid as they have a lot of size on the interior and DT James Lynch is a 2nd Team Big 12 honoree (9 TFL, 6 QBH LY). The LB corps will be the strength of the defense with all three starters back in the mix including leading tackler and 2nd Team Big 12 star Clay Johnston. Baylor was ranked #8 in the Big 12 in TFL and sacks last year and they need to find away to get more PENETRATION in order to take the defense to the next level. It remains to be seen if the Bears can find a way to stop the premium passing teams on their schedule as the secondary appears to be a weak spot.
The Bears have allowed 30+ PPG in each of the last two seasons but this defense looks good enough in the front seven to make decent improvement.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Baylor might be going with freshmen at PK and P and that is often troublesome. The return units could use some additional spice. Not a stellar unit on paper.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Someone deserves a raise for setting this up. The out-of-conference schedule is a piece of cake (SF Austin, UTSA, at Rice) and it seems impossible to think the Bears will start Big 12 action with anything other than a 3-0 record. The Bears get Oklahoma and Texas at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Rice (September 21)
This is the last game before Big 12 play starts rolling (Iowa St) and in-state competitor Rice would like nothing better than to SHOCK THE WORLD (or at least cover the spread).
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -125
Under 7.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
We’d set the number at ‘7’. This team is going to be pretty good and there are plenty of wins on that schedule. Taking a pass at the current market price.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The only Baylor Bear to be elected into the Pro Football Hall of Fame is the great LB Mike Singletary who dominated as a pro from 1981 to 1992.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive
Good things are brewing in Waco. Matt Rhule did some nice work at Temple and it appears that Baylor is on the cusp of being a legit contender in the Big 12. It may not happen this season though as there are still some question marks on the roster. Having said that, the only game on the entire docket that looks unwinnable is the game with Oklahoma. But is it REALLY unwinnable? <grabs popcorn>
Baylor will probably be a sexy team when it comes to college football prognosticators and DEGENERATE NATION. We think they will pull off a winning season ATS but the best value may come when they are playing their toughest games. A biggie size upset or two would not surprise us in the least.
Go Bears!
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NEWS
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