Baylor Bears 2020 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Baylor Bears 2020 College Football Preview

August 14, 2020

2019 Recap

Record – 11-3

ATS – 9-5

ALMOST.

The Bears came really close to SHOCKING the WORLD last year when they took the mighty Oklahoma Sooners to OT in the Big 12 Championship Game (L 30-23). Sure, there were a few close shaves along the way, but the Bears get full marks for steaming out to a 10-1 record and getting in the discussion for the College Football Playoff.

Ace DC Dave Aranda did a great job at LSU and now gets his first HC gig in Waco, Texas. Let’s see how the roster is shaping up heading into 2020.


2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Big 12 – #5


Baylor Bears 2020 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Bears were good enough on offense last season to make the Big 12 Championship Game (#3 BIg 12 scoring offense, #6 total offense) but they won several close games and definitely took advantage of their excellent defense. Heading into this season, the best news possible is that while there are a lot of new faces, the Bears return their excellent QB Charlie Brewer who has posted back-to-back 3,000 yard seasons. Also be aware that Brewer tossed a mere 7 INTs in 389 attempts LY. Brewer will certainly miss 1,000-yard WR Denzel Mims who is off to the NFL (Jets) but he’ll be glad to know that the #2, #3 and #4 targets are back including WR Tyquan Thornton who averaged 17.4 YPC in 2019. Leading rusher John Lovett (655, 6.4, 5 TD) is back along with a few other capable bodies at RB. The big question is, how will the offensive line hold up? They return four starters to the group, but recall that they were LAST in the Big 12 with 38 sacks allowed and 2nd last in TFL/game allowed LY.

This looks like an average Big 12 unit on paper. There’s a bit of upside given the talent at QB and proven players at the skill positions. <grabs popcorn>

DEFENSE

RUH ROH.

The Bears played great defense a season ago and that was the primary reason, in our humble estimation, that they had such a successful campaign (#1 Big 12 scoring defense, #3 total defense). Reality sets in this year as they only return two (!) starters to the stop unit. The good news is that HC Dave Aranda knows a thing or two about defense, and we like the appointment of Ron Roberts as DC (Ragin’ Cajuns). Leading tackler LB Terrel Bernard (112) will anchor the defense and he also chipped in with 4.5 sacks LY. Now for the bad news. Almost every starter is gone from last year’s D including star DE James Lynch (13.5 sacks; NFL – Vikings) and DB Grayland Arnold (NFL – Eagles), and note that Arnold had 6 INTs LY (#T5 FBS). They need to rebuild the DL and secondary and lose nine of their top-11 tacklers overall.

They’re going to take a step back this year, but you know they will be well-coached. We’ll call for a mid-pack Big 12 finish in total defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicking game is set with both PK John Mayers (16-19 FG LY, 2-2 from 40+) and P Issac Power back for duty. They could use improvement in the PR and KR game.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Baylor’s non-conference opponent (Sept 12th) has not been determined as we hit press time. They have five road games in Big 12 action but have an opportunity to get their feet wet before the nasty games pop up (Kansas, at West Virginia to start). Their final game is in Norman, and maybe, just maybe, that’s the first of back-to-back tilts with the Sooners?

<update – a home date with LA TECH has been added – Sept 12th>

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Iowa St (November 7th)

This tough road test in sandwiched in the middle of three games with foes from their GREAT STATE OF TEXAS (at Longhorns, Horned Frogs, Red Raiders) and Iowa St is a tough place to play.

Season Win Total

Over 6 +110

Under 6 -140

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the under. Hard to see them getting to seven wins.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

Dave Aranda was the roommate of Tom Herman (!) in college at California Lutheran. That’s a serious coaching duo right there, yo.


MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It’s hard to get a read on this team. The offense definitely looks good enough to keep them in a lot of games. The obvious question is, how quickly can Aranda rebuild a defense that lost so many key components? We project an up and down season and would be very surprised if they made it back to the Big 12 Championship Game. In any event, Sic ‘Em!


Want more Baylor Bears football ?

WEBSITE

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FORUM

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NEWS

https://sicem365.com/baylor-football

https://www.wacotrib.com/sports/

https://www.ourdailybears.com/

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/baylor-bears

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/239/baylor-bears

TWITTER

Hashtag – #SicEm

Accounts to follow

https://twitter.com/BUFootball

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