Baylor Bears 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 1, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 8-5
ATS – 8-4-1
It didn’t look good for the Bears at the halfway point as they sat with a record of 2-4 and suffered agonizing defeats at the hands of Colorado (L 38-31 OT) and BYU (L 34-28). And then they caught fire in the second half of the regular season winning their final six (!) games whilst averaging 41 PPG in the process. Baylor got drilled by LSU in the Texas Bowl but we give them a lot of credit for pulling the season out of the ABYSS and showing everyone the potential for 2025.
Baylor Bears 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bears offense really started to cook down the stretch and they were a very balanced outfit overall during the 2024 season (179 YPG rush, #42; 261 YPG pass, #34). QB Sawyer Robertson is the STRAW that stirs the DRINK and he emerged as one of the best QBs in the Big 12 LY (3,071, 28-8 TD to INT; 240 rush, 4 TD). Robertson is back to lead the offense and the WR/TE corps is loaded with OODLES of dangerous specimens including #1 WR Josh Cameron (754, 14.5, 10 TD), TE Michael Trigg (395, 13.2, 3 TD) and productive transfers Kole Wilson (Texas St) and Louis Brown (San Diego St). You want to run the ball? Well Baylor boasts one of the best 1-2 combos in the country in ALL-MEGALOCKS TEAM member RB Bryson Washington (1,028, 5.9, 12 TD) and Dawson Pendergrass (671, 5.5, 6 TD). The OL is experienced with good size and the group returns over 70 career starts. Yup, GET CHO POPCONE because this offense is loaded.
DEFENSE
The Bears weren’t a brick wall by any means LY (#9 Big 12 run D, #9 pass efficiency D) but they were much better than the disgusting piece of SWISS CHEESE they resembled in 2023. We expect them to be improved this year given the return of eight starters including #1 tackler LB Keaton Thomas (114 tackles, 7 TFL), safety Devyn Bobby, and DE Jackie Marshall. The Bears also added some impressive transfer portal talent including LB Travion Barnes (FIU; 129 tackles LY) and NT Samu Taumanupepe (Texas A&M). The Bears look solid at each level of the defense but they’ll need to achieve more PENETRATION (23 sacks, #80) if they wanna make the leap to a top-3 or top-4 Big 12 stop unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This appears to be one of the best special teams units in the Big 12 given the return of all-Universe punter Palmer Williams (49.3, 42.9) and PR Josh Cameron (20.7, Baylor #1 FBS PR). The Bears hope that new PK Connor Hawkins can be an adequate replacement for departed PK Isaiah Hankins (14/19 FG, 50/51 XP LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s mostly good news. The Bears have a pair of tough non-conference tests (Auburn, at SMU) to deal with but they drew a favorable Big 12 schedule. Baylor has to face Utah, Arizona St, and Kansas St but all three of those games are at home. They’ve got five conference home games and finish the regular season with a pair of relative softies (at Arizona, Houston).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Oklahoma St (Sept 27)
This road game is sandwiched between yuuuuge meetings with Arizona St and Kansas St, and Oklahoma St can’t possibly be as horrible as they were last year. Right?
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 1
Over 7.5 +100
Under 7.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
If the Bears can split their games with Auburn and SMU then the ‘over’ should be a winning TICKEE TICKEE. That would make them 2-1 heading into Big 12 action, and a record of 6-3 in those games seems doable to hit the ‘over’.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Dave Aranda has been decent vs the point spread during his 5-year stint with the Bears (32-28, 53%) and he’s been particularly effective in the role of home favorite (11-7-1, 61%).
It seems like a long time ago but Baylor is just four years removed from winning the Big 12 Championship. They slithered past Oklahoma St in 2021 (W 21-16) in a game won by an inch or two in the dying seconds. The Bears polished off that fine season with a 21-7 win over Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Don’t look now but Baylor looks ready to make another run at the Big 12 Championship. The offense will be one of the best in the conference and the defense has the potential to be very good. The schedule sets up nicely but early home games vs Arizona St and Kansas St will inform us if they have the MINERALS to get to the big game in December. The Bears are a major Big 12 player in our books. SIC ‘EM!