Boca Raton Bowl – UAB vs Northern Illinois
The Game
It’s a battle of conference champs Tuesday night in Boca Raton as Northern Illinois takes on UAB. The Huskies won the MAC with a yuuuuge comeback win over Buffalo and the Blazers squeaked out a road win over MTSU to the claim the Conference USA title. Northern Illinois sits with a record of 8-5 but keep in mind that they played a nasty out-of-conference slate that included games vs Iowa, Utah, and BYU. UAB has already bagged 10 wins and outscored their conference opponents to the tune of 227-88. Let’s go!
The Details
UAB -2.5 Northern Illinois (43)
MEGALOCKS LINE – UAB -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: UAB 22.75 Northern Illinois 20.25
The Match-Up:
UAB offense vs Northern Illinois defense
The Blazers rely on the ground game to do the dirty work and it will be interesting to see what kind of success they have against a really good NIU run D that is ranked #14 in the FBS. RB Spencer Brown has rushed for over 1,100 yards and 16 TDs and had a fantastic championship game vs MTSU (31-156, TD). QB Tyler Johnston is not flashy (7-8 TD to INT, 4 rushing TDs) but he managed the game vs the Blue Raiders and got them the “W”. It’s uncertain as we go to press whether or not their other QB AJ Erdely will be able to go (listed as Q). The Blazers average an impressive 14.3 yards per reception as a team and are more than capable of hitting a few deep shots in this game. WR Xavier Ubosi led the Blazers with 610 yards receiving and averaged 21.8 yards per catch. The biggest key to this game will be the ability of UAB to control the insane pass rush of the Huskies who lead the FBS in sacks with 50 (!). They have only allowed 23 sacks on the season but Northern Illinois brings serious heat to the table. They also tackle very well and do a fine job of suffocating opposing offenses.
Northern Illinois offense vs UAB defense
QB Marcus Childers struggled for almost the entire season when attempting to MATRICULATE the ball down the field in the passing game (15-10 TD to INT, 58%, 5.4 yards per attempt) but came up BIG when it mattered most in the MAC Championship. Childers led a dramatic comeback win with a 300-yard and 4 TD performance vs the Bulls. It’s hard to see him being able to replicate that success vs the Blazers as they are ranked #22 in the FBS in pass efficiency defense and can also get after the QB (43 sacks, #4 FBS). That is likely to be a problem for Northern Illinois as they allowed 38 (!) sacks on the season. The good news for NIU is that they have a good rushing attack with Tre Harbison and Marcus Jones at RB (over 1,500 yards combined) and Childers has good mobility. Northern Illinois will have to find a way to get things done on 3rd downs where they have struggled all season (#99 FBS). The Blazers are excellent at stopping things cold on 3rd down (#2 FBS).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Northern Illinois is 0-5 (!) SU and ATS in their five bowl appearances under HC Rod Carey……UAB has never won a bowl game in school history (0-2) and that includes a DEBACLE last year in the Bahamas Bowl when they got destroyed by Ohio.
Summary
This is a tough game to call. We trust the Blazers a bit more on offense BUT have to wonder about their overall strength of schedule. Northern Illinois has played a number of tough games whilst UAB had the #131 (!) schedule according to the Sagarin ratings (includes FBS and FCS squads). It’s impossible for us to go the window with Northern Illinois given their bowl history under the current HC but they play great defense and that always gives you a shot.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to UAB.
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.