Boise St Broncos 2016 NCAA Football Preview
BOISE ST BRONCOS
Mountain West Conference – Mountain Division
2015 Record – 9-4
ATS – 7-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Mountain Division #1
Conference #1
2015 Recap
The Broncos failed to reach double digits in wins for only the 2nd time in the last 10 years. They also lost two home games including one as a 4 TD+ favorite. Boise was on a 55-2 run at home before last year so that gives you an idea of how rare it is for them to lose on the blue turf. The good news is that they got to see the potential of QB Brett Rypien earlier than planned on account of injury to Ryan Finley. Rypien made some freshman mistakes but was MW Freshman POY and looks to have a fine career ahead of him at Boise St.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
It is hard not to salivate thinking about the potential of the Boise St offense in 2016. They return the best QB in the conference, a 1,300 yard RB, a stable of fine WRs including 1,400 yard man Thomas Sperbeck and a big time receiving threat in TE Jake Roh (33 receptions last season). The offensive line is experienced and returns 3 starters BUT they have given up 86 sacks the last three seasons after allowing just 31 from 2009-2012. Our bets are on Boise scoring well over 40 points a game and leading the Mountain West in offense.
McWEAPON ALERT – RB Jeremy McNichols was one of the most exciting players in all of college football last season. Not only did he rush for over 1,300 yards and 20 TDs – but he also caught 51 (!) passes for 460 yards and another 6 TDs. It is going to be hard to duplicate last season’s numbers – but keep an eye on him as a longshot Heisman candidate if he puts up more video game numbers while Boise makes a run at an undefeated season.
DEFENSE
There is no doubt that Boise played a pretty easy schedule last season but the fact remains they finished ranked 5th in the NCAA in run defense (108 yards per game) and 14th in passing efficiency defense (2nd in the MW with 22 interceptions). Now the back 7 looks pretty formidable for the Broncos this season but there is a major question mark on the defensive line. They lose all four starters from last season – and while they have a track record of continuously reloading on the DL – it is tough to imagine the Broncos coming close to last season’s performance. Color us a bit skeptical.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Broncos return an excellent PK in Tyler Rausa who nailed 25 of 30 FG last season. Anyone familiar with Boise St’s history in the FG department knows that this is a big deal. P Sean Wale returns who did a fine job last season but the Broncos need to find new return men.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Boise St is typically a team that you do not want to fade ATS. Even though they have not been the JUGGERNAUT of years’ past – they have still managed to cover 55% of their games the last 10 seasons. This is despite the fact that they have become a relatively “public” team.
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season. The Boise St offense looks pretty devastating on paper but we are a bit worried about the defense. And DEFENSE is a big deal when you are talking about finding a team that will consistently win for you against the number. We think that Boise St will cover more games than they should as per usual because – well – they are Boise St. Fantastic home field advantage and they always seem to get the turnover margin in their favor (+9 last season despite being -7 in one game; an INSANE +76 last 6 years).
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News
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