College Football Predictions – Boise St Broncos 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 11-3
ATS – 8-6
Yawn.
Boise St has reeled of EIGHT double-digit win campaigns in the last ten years. Last season they started out a bit slow losing two of their first four contests, but then they caught their second win and rallied to a 9-1 finish. Oh ya, they also bagged another Mountain West title. The Broncos seem to be hitting their stride again after the departure of HALL OF FAME HC Chris Peterson. Can they run the table and get into the playoff? Let’s examine.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #1
Mountain West – #1
Boise St Broncos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It wasn’t all roses on the way to a Mountain West championship last year. As Phil Steele notes in the best annual college football magazine of all time, Boise St averaged their lowest YPG on the ground (144) in over 20 years in 2017. Brett Rypien gets some criticism but he still had a decent 16-6 TD to INT ratio last season whilst completing 62.6% of his passes. Rypien will need to MATRICULATE in the passing game without star WR Cedrick Wilson who is off to the NFL (Cowboys) as well as TE Jake Roh (39 receptions, 9 TD LY). Thankfully, 1,000-yard rusher Alexander Mattison is back for duty, although is there no proven production behind him on the depth chart. The offense will be good as always but they need the offensive line to step up in order to be a truly dominant unit.
DEFENSE
The Broncos were #22 in total defense last season and were good vs the run (#17) and the pass (#32 pass efficiency D). They also achieved impressive PENETRATION as they led the MW in sacks (T1 – 34) and were #4 in the conference in TFL. Things look REALLY good this year with 10 starters returning to the mix, although the only loss is a superb player in LB Leighton Vander Esch (#1 NFL DC – Cowboys). The DL returns all four starters including sophomore Curtis Weaver who dominated with 11 sacks last year. More good news is a secondary that returns 4/4 starters including 1st Team MW performers CB Avery Williams and CB Tyler Horton. Opponents are going to have a hard time moving the ball on this group.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game should be fine with their senior combination of PK Haden Hoggarth (18/23 FG LY) and P Quinn Skillin back for duty. PR Avery Williams took a pair to the house last season. Good lookin’.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It sets up well. The most difficult test is a road game at Oklahoma St. They don’t have to deal with any back-to-back road games. They get San Diego St and Fresno St on the blue turf.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing really jumps out. They play Connecticut before the big game with Oklahoma St, but they get the Huskies at home, and UConn will likely get rolled up and smoked in this contest. No point spread may be big enough.
Season Win Total
Over 10 +105
Under 10 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean yet. They look like the best team in the Mountain West on paper but they have not gone undefeated in the conference since 2009. Someone will probably get them. And if they lose to Oklahoma St that makes 10-2. Tough call.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Startle your boss at the next THREE BEER WORK LUNCH with this beauty. Boise St holds a trademark on any non-green field, not just blue. If anyone wants to install a football field in any other color than green, they need to apply for a license from Boise St.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Could these guys sneak into the playoff? If they get past the Cowboys in week three things will become intriguing. The offense may not be a complete killer BUT the defense is going to be their best since the 2012 campaign. The Broncos have recorded double digit wins in eight of the past ten seasons, and their worst mark over that time horizon was an 8-5 “disaster” in 2013 in Chris Peterson’s final year as the head man.
Despite being a relatively public team, Boise has rattled off a 27-27 mark over HC Bryan Harsin’s four campaigns. Not great, not awful. Three of those years were overall winners ATS, with the only misstep being a 4-9 mark in 2016. It seems as though Boise has the potential to really take it to the weaker teams in the conference as the defense will be nasty.
We project another winning season vs Vegas, but keep in mind that Boise St has been weak ATS as a home favorite under Harsin (8-18, 31%) but stellar as road chalk 14-7 (67%).
Want more Boise St Broncos Football?
WEBSITE
http://www.broncosports.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/bosu-m-footbl-sched.html
FORUM
Free
http://www.scout.com/college/boise-state/forums/2246-blue-turf-board
https://boisestate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-blue.22/
Restricted
http://www.scout.com/college/boise-state/forums/2245-bronco-corral
NEWS
http://bleacherreport.com/boise-state-football
TWITTER
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