Boise St Broncos 2021 College Football Preview
Created July 15, 2021
Record – 5-2
ATS – 4-3
That was an interesting ride.
Boise St started the plandemic campaign with a pair of handy wins over Utah St and Air Force but followed that up with a STINKER vs BYU (L 51-17). They ran off three straight wins to get to their fourth consecutive MW Championship Game but ran into a BUZZSAW and were upset by San Jose St (L 34-20).
New HC Andy Avalos has some big shoes to fill as Bryan Harsin left to take the Auburn job.
Boise St Broncos 2021 Outlook
The Broncos struggled moving the ball on offense LY and finished an unfamiliar #9 in total offense in the conference (349 YPG). It didn’t help that they seemingly had three QBs get injured every game, but the ground game didn’t work either (107 YPG, LAST MW). QB Hank Bachmeier has potential but has missed a number of games over the past two years due to injury. Star WR Khalil Shakir (719, 13.8, 6 TD) returns as well as #2 WR CT Thomas and TE Riley Smith. The key players in the RB room return for duty (George Holani, Andrew Van Buren) and hopefully they can be more productive. Four starters return up front and note that they only allowed 14 sacks LY (#3 MW sacks allowed per game). They’ll need to be better from a run blocking perspective. Overall, we expect improvement but not sure they will be overly explosive. Time will tell.
The defense allowed the most PPG since 2014 (27.1, #6 MW scoring D) and were exposed against every decent offense they faced. The run D was MEH and they booked 18 sacks (#6 MW sk/g). The pass D was respectable 53% completions (#1 MW) but they only managed to pick off 3 passes in 7g. This year’s D looks pretty good with six of their top seven tacklers returning. The DL has good size and features leading sack man DE Shane Irwin (6). Riley Whimpey (#1 tackler) and Zeke Noa are a formidable LB duo. It’ll be interesting to see how the pass D holds up given the loss of two outstanding CBs, and note that those guys were a good reason why Boise St finished #2 (!) in the FBS in 3rd down D in 2020 (27.1%).
Boise St ranked #1 (!) in the Phil Steele ST ranking LY and return PK Jonah Dalmas (7-8 FG) and P Joel Velazquez. They lose the impossibly-talented Avery Williams in the return game (2 PR TD and 2 KR TD LY) (yup, that happened).
Overall – They have a tough road schedule (UCF, BYU, San Diego St) but get both Wyoming and Air Force on the blue turf.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Fresno St (November 6th)
This will be their 3rd road game in four (bye week also in there) and have a yuuuuge match-up with Wyoming the following week.
Season Win Total
per 5Dimes July 15
Over 8.5 -125
Under 8.5 +105
It’s a tough schedule but they should be able to split with UCF/Oklahoma St and go from there. It’s not usually a good idea to bet on Boise St to lose four regular season games.
Last season marked the first season since 2014 that Boise St had lost two games by 14+ points.
This team doesn’t look like a KILLER but they’re still the most talented team in the conference on paper. They’ll need to navigate a tough road docket, and God willing, keep their QBs out of emergency rooms and off of stretchers. We like the hire of Avalos and still think they GIT ER DONE and make another Mountain West Championship Game.
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