Boise St Broncos 2023 College Football Preview
July 1, 2023
2022 Recap
Record – 10-4
ATS – 6-7-1
The Broncos got off to a slow start and were smoked by UTEP (!) at one point by a score of 27-10. Boise St didn’t quit and subsequently went on a very impressive HEEETER that included a blowout win over Fresno St (W 40-20). They won seven of eight games heading into the conference title game but the Bulldogs exacted revenge in impressive fashion. The season ended on a bit of a high note as they slithered past North Texas in the Frisco Bowl (W 35-32), and that salted away the Broncos’ 6th double-digit winning season in the last 10 years. Not bad!
Boise St Broncos 2023 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Broncos started to roll on offense once QB Taylen Green took over the controls (14-6 TD to INT, 10 rush TD) and we expect big things from the dual-threat QB in 2023. Essentially all of Green’s key weaponry is back for battle this season including the devastating 1-2 punch at RB of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty who combined for almost 2,000 yards and 17 TDs on the ground last year. The experienced WR/TE group doesn’t appear to have a game-changer but WR Latrell Caples caught 51 balls LY and TE Riley Smith is one of the best pass-catching TEs in the Mountain West. Three starters return up front but it won’t be easy to replace star LT John Ojukwu. This offense is obviously one of the best in the conference and we fully expect them to exceed 30 PPG for the first time since the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season.
DEFENSE
Boise St played some fine defense LY and allowed a mere 293 YPG (#7 FBS) whilst being particularly stingy vs the pass (#8 pass efficiency D, 52%, 13-15 TD to INT). There are some holes to plug heading into this season but they’re thrilled to have star LB and #1 tackler DJ Schramm back for a 6th season. There will be a number of new faces up front and hopefully they can get a healthy campaign out of DE/LB Demitri Washington (4.5 sk LY). They lose a number of pieces in the secondary including their excellent safety JL Skinner and it’ll be interesting to see if they’re able to reload and play the same brand of pass defense they did in 2022. The stop unit looks pretty good but we don’t think they’ll allow less than 20 PPG like they did in each of the past two seasons.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s continuity across the board with the biggest plus being the return of their placekicking ROBOT Jonah Dalmas who’s connected on an impossible 56/63 FG attempts over the course of his career.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is tough as they have a season opener at Washington, and also have to deal with battles vs UCF (H) and Memphis (A). The Broncos have to play all three of the other major Mountain West players and two of those are ON THE HIGHWAY (San Diego St, Fresno St). The regular season finale (Air Force) is likely to determine a spot in conference title game. GET CHO POPCONE!
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Memphis (Sept 30)
This will be a difficult sandwich spot to navigate as it comes after their yuuuge game with San Diego St and before another Mountain West game (San Jose St).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 1
Over 8.5 +100
Under 8.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This is most talented team in the conference, particularly on offense, but it won’t be easy to get through that schedule with nine or more wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Boise, the capital city of Idaho, has a French origin to its name. Boise translates to “wooded” or “trees” in French. The name was apparently given by French-Canadian fur trappers who were exploring the area in the early 19th century. One legend has some dood saying, “Les bois!” (“the woods”), similar to how Tattoo (French actor Herve Villechaize) announced “De Plane, De Plane!” on the TV series Fantasy Island.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Expectations are high in the GREAT STATE OF IDAHO, and rightfully so. The offense is absolutely loaded and while the defense will likely take a small step backwards, this is still the most talented team on paper in the Mountain West. The schedule presents a legitimate challenge but we’ll call for another appearance in the conference title game. Go Broncos!