Boise St Broncos 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 16, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 8-6
ATS – 7-6-1
WHOA, NELLIE.
Things looked grim around midseason when the Broncos sat with a record of 4-5 after a loss to Fresno St. Would they make a bowl game? Would they even win another game? Well, the season turned around in a big way. The Broncos won their final three games of the regular season and found their way into the Mountain West Championship Game thanks in large part to a “tiebreaker” process that would make the criminals in Fulton County blush. Boise St proceeded to rip UNLV apart (W 44-20) and win their first conference title since 2019.
Boise St Broncos 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Broncos had one of the most devastating rushing attacks in the country LY (215 YPG, #6 FBS) and they retain the man most responsible for that success in superstar RB Ashton Jeanty (1,347, 14 TD; 43 receptions, 569, 5 TD). They’ll have to make a switch at QB given the departure of Taylen Green to Arkansas and it appears that last year’s backup Maddux Madsen is the favorite to bag the starting role (61%, 9-3 TD to INT LY). The Broncos scored a nice win in the transfer portal by adding former USC (!) recruit QB Malachi Nelson and we’ll be surprised if he doesn’t push for major playing time at some point. The majority of WR unit other than the departed Eric McAlister (873, 5 TD) was doing their best SIMPLE JACK impression for a good chunk of the 2023 season and they could definitely use an upgrade at the position. Maybe they can strike gold with a transfer like Chris Marshall (Texas A&M)? Things look good up front with the return of three starters including a pair of 2nd Team MW honorees. If they can get a bit more out of the WR/TE positions this offense is gonna be tough to stop.
DEFENSE
The defense was a major disappointment LY as they allowed 25.6 PPG (#59) just one year removed from resembling a brick wall (19.5 PPG, #15). The Broncos were decent vs the run LY (#38) but they struggled defending the pass (#80 pass efficiency D). Things are shaping up VERY nicely on this side of the football this year as Boise St retains, wait for it, 11 (!) starters and virtually all of their most talented pieces from the 2023 defense. DE Ahmed Hassanein is a lethal pass rusher (12.5 sacks LY), LB Andrew Simpson was the #3 tackler whilst booking 6.5 sacks, and DB Seyi Oladipo is always causing problems for the opposing offense (#2 tackler, 8.5 TFL, INT LY). This looks like the best defense in the Mountain West.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The HITS KEEP COMING!
Boise St has one of the best kicking games on the planet with the return of outstanding PK Jonah Dalmas (24/27 FG LY; 80/90 career!) and all-Universe punter James Ferguson-Reynolds (49.7, 42.8 net LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Good looking, yo. Boise St has just one scary game (at Oregon), they avoid Fresno St, and they get to play both Oregon St and Washington St at home on the blue turf.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 16
Over 9 -140
Under 9 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We’ve seen some ‘9.5s’ out there at plus money but we prefer this option. It’s hard to see them losing four games to make ‘over 9’ a loser.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Boise St has played in seven Mountain West Championship Games (4-3) with their most common opponent being Fresno St (2-2).
The Broncos have a combined record of 57-4 (!!) against Colorado St, New Mexico, San Jose St, and Wyoming. They’ve lost one game to each of those programs.
Idaho is the 14th largest state by land area and is one of the most beautiful places in the United States. So far, they’ve managed to fight off the communist invasion from the dumpster fire that is California, but they’ve got a long battle ahead.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This team looks loaded and ready to make a serious bid to repeat as Mountain West Champions. We’re still not 100% sold on the QB situation but the surrounding weaponry and excellent offensive line make us feel confident that they’ll be able to SCORE the FOOTBALL. And that defense looks flat out nasty. We’ll pencil them in for a spot in the conference title game as they look tough to beat.