Bowl Games QUICK TAKES (10 games) – College Football Predictions
Here are some QUICK TAKES on the bowl games that did not make the cut for extra-detailed analysis.
Let’s go!
Handy index: Quick Takes
- Arizona Bowl – Arkansas St vs Nevada
- Belk Bowl – South Carolina vs Virginia
- Sun Bowl – Stanford vs Pittsburgh
- Military Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
- Gator Bowl – NC State vs Texas A&M
- Holiday Bowl – Northwestern vs Utah
- Liberty Bowl – Oklahoma St vs Missouri
- Redbox Bowl – Michigan St vs Oregon
- Citrus Bowl – Penn St vs Kentucky
- Outback Bowl – Mississippi St vs Iowa
QUICK TAKES
Arkansas St -1.5 Nevada (56.5)…….MEGALOCKS line – Pick ’em
Vegas Implied Score – Arkansas St 29 Nevada 27.5
It’s Arizona Bowl time, yo.
This promises to be an entertaining game featuring a pair of 3,000-yard QBs and two defenses that like to get after the QB. Arkansas St had high hopes before the season started but failed to make the Sun Belt Championship Game. Nevada made nice strides in year two of the Jay Norvell era and are making their first bowl appearance since 2015. Red Wolves’ QB Justice Hansen will have to have a big day throwing the football vs the Nevada secondary (#88 pass efficiency D) as the Wolfpack are stingy vs the run (#32 FBS) and very good on 3rd downs (#17 FBS). Nevada brings the HEAT (32 sacks) but have not managed to bag many INTs this season. We expect a 300-yard game from Hansen with a few mistakes and not much from the rushing attack. Nevada QB Ty Gangi has done well this year with 23 TD passes but has thrown a few too many INTs for our liking (11). Arkansas can also bring the heat (32 sacks). The good news for Nevada is that they should almost certainly have more success on the ground. Arkansas St is #100 vs the run and Nevada RB Toa Taua is more than capable of having a big game (816, 5.2). This is HC Jay Norvell’s first bowl game. Blake Anderson has a 1-3 record in bowl games with the Red Wolves but can at least say he is the last HC to beat UCF (2016 Cure Bowl).
Conclusion: Lean to the dog for some pizza money. Nevada +105.
South Carolina -4.5 Virginia (54)…..MEGALOCKS line – South Carolina -6
Vegas Implied Score – South Carolina 29.25 Virginia 24.75
Who doesn’t need more BELK?
This is a tough game to get a read upon. Both teams are 7-5. You would think that SC should get the job done (SEC, better QB) but they have approximately 78,000 players listed on the injury/suspension/takingmyballandgoinghome list. Their best win? Maybe over Missouri in a rainstorm? The player they will miss most is star WR Deebo Samuel and Jake Bentley will have his hands full with a good Virginia secondary (#15 pass efficiency D). The Virginia offense kinda plods along but they have the ultimate 3rd down conversion machine at QB in Bryce Perkins who is sneaky and shifty. And don’t sleep on the arm. Not great, but dangerous enough. The Cavs got blown to bits in last year’s bowl game (49-7 Navy) and should be jacked to get that taste out of their mouth and beat an SEC team. The Cocks finished strong (won 4 of last 6) but they are a tough read right now.
Conclusion: Lean to Virginia +4.5.
Stanford -4.5 Pittsburgh (52)…..MEGALOCKS line – Stanford -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Stanford 28.25 Pittsburgh 23.75
The team that can’t run vs the team that can’t pass. Wait….Stanford has trouble running the ball? What in the SAM HILL is going on? This is not your GREAT AUNT’S Stanford team….and with star RB Bryce Love off to the NFL….it will be interesting to see how the Cardinal can move the ball on ground (#122 rushing offense). The good news is that the Panthers are relatively soft when it comes to defending the run (#86 run defense) so Stanford may be able to get a nibble here and there. Stanford does their damage with a really strong passing attack that features a fine QB in KJ Costello, an NFL-calibre WR (JJ Arcega-Whiteside) and a pair of dangerous receiving TEs that combined for 1,100 yards and 9 TDs (Parkinson, Smith). The match-up that will decide the game is the Pitt rushing attack vs the Stanford front seven. Pitt boasts TWO (!!) 1,000-yard rushers in Qadree Ollison (1,190, 6.3) and Darrin Hall (1,021, 7.5) who have combined for 20 rushing TDs. The Stanford D is decent but keep in mind that Pitt rushed for over 100 yards in every game other than vs Miami when they mailed it in (division was already sewn up). They rushed for 191 vs Clemson, 245 vs Penn St, 484 (!) vs Duke and 492 (!) vs the Hokies. The passing game is a bit of a disaster but QB Kenny Pickett does a good job of taking care of the football and has “annoying mobility”.
Generally speaking, Stanford has won the games they should have won and lost the games they should have lost (ND, Utah, Washington, Washington St). The exception is probably the miracle win over Oregon but you get the point. They should beat Pitt BUT we are not crazy about laying 4.5 points to a team that could run roughshod over their D. Stanford has better coaching. Pitt is 7-13 in their last 20 bowl games.
Conclusion: Slight lean to Pittsburgh +4.5. If we throw some beer money on the game we want the one-dimensional team that can run catching points.
Cincinnati -6 Virginia Tech (53.5)…..MEGALOCKS line – Cincinnati -4
Vegas Implied Score – Cincinnati 29.75 Virginia Tech 23.75
The Bearcats come into this game with 10 (!) wins already and their only two losses were understandable (at Temple, at UCF). Freshman QB Desmond Ridder has been a really pleasant surprise with a 19-5 TD to INT ratio and 563 rushing yards (5 TD). They are balanced on offense with a few dangerous targets to use in the THROW GAME and RB Michael Warren has 1,163 rushing yards to his credit and 17 (!) TDs on the ground. He has also caught 24 balls out of the backfield in his spare time. The defense has been a ROCK and rank #1 in the AAC in rushing defense whilst allowing just 3.2 YPC. Want pass defense? They are #1 in the AAC in pass efficiency D allowing just 47% (!) completions (17-11 TD to INT). Virginia Tech did a fine job getting to a bowl game winning their final two contests vs Virginia and Marshall. QB Ryan Willis threw 22 TD passes AFTER taking over for injured starting QB Joshua Jackson and will have to be at his best vs a tough Bearcat secondary. The running game is not going to be able to do much in this contest and the forecast for rain and cold will not help the passing game. The Hokies are just #90 in the FBS on 3rd downs and the Cincinnati D has been great in that regard (#4 FBS). The Hokies #1 weapon WR Damon Hazelton is Q for this game (suspension, mystery injury, who knows….) so keep an eye out for late news.
The Bearcats have a suspect set of wins BUT they do have 10 of them. We will side with the team with the much better defense and trust that the Hokies’ #105 run defense will get gashed.
Conclusion: Lean to Cincinnati -6.
Texas A&M -7 NC State (56)…..MEGALOCKS line – Texas A&M -5.5
Vegas Implied Score – Texas A&M 31.5 NC State 24.5
SEC vs ACC, baby! Where have we seen that before?
We THINK the Texas A&M vs LSU game just finished (7-OT) and the Aggies should be pleased with an 8-4 record in year one of the JIMBO era. The Wolfpack also had a good campaign (9-3) and are looking to bag their first 10-win season since the Lincoln administration. The Aggies have played the tougher schedule and have more “talent” BUT the match-up favors NC State. The straw that stirs the drink for Texas A&M is RB Trayveon Williams who is one of the most underrated players in college football (1,524, 15 TD) but the Pack are rock solid vs the run (#13 FBS). Want more? Texas A&M is excellent vs the run (#2 FBS rush defense) (!) but #111 in pass efficiency D. Enter Wolfpack QB Ryan Finley who has completed 68% of his passes with a fine 24-9 TD to INT ratio. NC State is really good on 3rd downs (#5 FBS offense, #17 defense). This has the feeling of a one-score game despite the fact that NC State is without one of their TWO 1,000-yard WRs and a key defensive piece.
Conclusion: Lean NC State +7.
Utah -7 Northwestern (46)…..MEGALOCKS line – Utah -5
Vegas Implied Score – Utah 26.5 Northwestern 19.5
This has the potential to be a low-scoring SNOT BUBBLER as Utah takes on Northwestern in the Holiday Bowl. Utah fought through BIG TIME injuries on offense (QB, RB) and made it to the PAC 12 Championship Game only to lose to Washington whilst yielding zero offensive TDs. Northwestern was a MEGALOCKS CASH COW and finished with a fine 8-1 record in Big Ten play. They couldn’t hang with Ohio St but that does not diminish the success of their campaign. The spread seems a bit rich BUT it’s hard to back a team that will almost certainly be one-dimensional (Northwestern) on offense. The Cats are ranked #117 (!!) in rushing offense and Utah is #4 (!!) in rush defense. Northwestern will have to do damage in the air, and while we like QB Clayton Thorson, he boasts a pedestrian TD to INT ratio (15-14) and may be without top WR Flynn Nagel. The Utah QB situation is uncertain as we go to press but we think they can do enough to win this game by 7+ points.
Conclusion: Slight lean to Utah. Lean to the under.
Missouri -9 Oklahoma St (74)…..MEGALOCKS line – Missouri -7
Vegas Implied Score – Missouri 41.5 Oklahoma St 32.5
We get one more chance to see ALL-UNIVERSE QB Drew Lock dominate through the air BUT we also need to remember that Missouri is also proficient with the ground game (#42 rushing offense, #27 passing offense; 26 rushing TD, 25 passing TD). Oklahoma St finished with a disappointing mark of 6-6 but keep in mind that their last five games were pretty decent. They beat Texas, lost at Baylor by 4, lost to the Sooners (!) by a single point, beat West Virginia (!) and lost at TCU by a TD. The Pokes will be without star RB Justice Hill but this spread feels a bit rich. Never underestimate the power of our boy GUNDY to keep his team competitive.
Conclusion: No leanage.
Oregon -2 Michigan St (48) .…MEGALOCKS line – Oregon -3
Vegas Implied Score – Oregon 25 Michigan St 23
Yes, guy.
It’s a great PAC 12 vs Big Ten match-up as Oregon battles Michigan St. Oregon won three of their last four games but still finished up with a disappointing record in conference play (5-4). Michigan St played some serious defense BUT were PUTRID on offense for most of the campaign. The Spartans have the edge on defense and in the HC department (!!) but are at a serious disadvantage when it comes to QB play. Michigan scored a MEASLY 26 (!!!!!) points in their last three regular season games and the Lewerke/Lombardi combo at QB has thrown more INT (13) than TD passes (12). We initially leaned to the Spartans but would want at least a FG to dip into the pool.
Conclusion: Lean to Michigan St team total under whatever number you can get. Thanks!
Penn St -6 Kentucky (47) .…MEGALOCKS line – Penn St -7
Vegas Implied Score – Penn St 26.5 Kentucky 20.5
This line feels a tough short to our CITRUS BOWL INSIDERS. Penn St is the more balanced offensive squad (209 YPG rushing, 216 passing) and Kentucky has an NFL-caliber RB in Benny Snell (1,305, 14 TD) and not much else. QB TOUCHDOWN TERRY is a better runner than passer and it seems to us that Penn St should be able to win this game by a TD or more. Then again……the motivation for Penn St has to be a question mark since they did NOT vision a bowl game vs Kentucky as a YUUUUUGE win when they begun spring practice. Keep in mind that this is the last game for electric QB Trace McSorley and that the Nittany Lions’ D has bagged 43 sacks.
Conclusion: Lean to Kentucky team total under whatever number you can get. Thanks!
Mississippi St -7 Iowa (41) .…MEGALOCKS line – Mississippi St -6
Vegas Implied Score – Mississippi St 24 Iowa 17
Here we go! If you wanted a SNOT BUBBLER you have come to the right place. Both defenses are REALLY good and Mississippi St is tied for 1st in the FBS allowing just 5 (!!) rushing TDs all season. The good news for Iowa is that they have a solid defense that should be able to control the Bulldogs’ 1.2 yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust rushing attack. We are going to miss watching tough-as-nails Mississippi St QB Nick Fitzgerald take the field and he will have to be at his best vs an Iowa defense that can stop the run AND tied for the Big Ten lead in INTs with 18. It’s hard to trust Bulldogs’ HC Joe Moorhead laying seven points vs veteran HC Kirk Ferentz.
Conclusion: Lean to the under.
Note:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.