Hey everyone.
Bowl pick #2.
Utah St -2.5 -110
Rot #228. Dec 23. 3:30pm.
-2.5 is widely available.
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this year. 11-22-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are 84-60 (58%) as of the end of the regular season. In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned around mid-season, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
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