Hey everyone.
Bowl pick #3.
Missouri +3.5 -106
Rot #263. Dec 29. 8pm.
+3.5 is widely available. +4 is also relatively easy to find. We’ll go with +3.5 for record keeping purposes but please shop around as always for the best number possible.
Picking what we believe are the best of the bunch for “official” plays has worked out badly this year. 11-22-2 on the season for the “official picks”. Small plays/Leans are 84-60 (58%) as of the end of the regular season. In 2022, the “official” plays were 23-23 and the small plays/leans were 114-90 (56%). We’ll continue to examine our process on a weekly basis and do a much deeper dive once the season is completed.
We’ll continue to send out our favorite picks of the week as “official plays” as we have always done (perceived line value, match-up edges, coaching, trends, etc.), but as mentioned around mid-season, we recommend that it’s best to risk the same amount on the small/plays leans as you do with the “official” picks. That’s what we’ve been doing so we suggest the same for everyone else.
As always, whatever you decide, play safe!
Thanks so much for your support of the website!