Bowling Green Falcons 2016 NCAA Football Preview
BOWLING GREEN FALCONS
MACtion – East Division
2015 Record – 10-4
ATS – 9-4-1
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
East Division #2
Conference #6
2015 Recap
MAC Champions. Again. That makes three division crowns in a row and two MAC Titles in the past three seasons. They have a new starting QB and a new head coach in Mike Jinks who was the RB coach at Texas Tech. Can they keep the momentum going ?
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Senior QB James Knapke has the unenviable task of filling the shoes of the departed Matt Johnson who carved up the opposition for over 4,900 yards and 46 (!) TDs on his way to MAC Off POY honors. Knapke does have a 3,000-yard season on his resume so he does not come in totally green. Three of the top four receivers from last season are gone including two players who had 1000-yard seasons. The offensive line is the most experienced in the FBS in terms of returning starters and that is a huge plus.
The Falcons’ all-time leading rusher Fred Coppet does not return and he accounted for 1,299 yards and 15 TDs rushing. Matt Domer was expected to be a key reserve but was lost to injury.
HC Mike Jinks will run a similar fast-paced system but the fact that they lose so much production from last season is a bit concerning. As noted, the offensive line should be excellent.
DEFENSE
Statistically last season Bowling Green was a below-average MAC defense but they created a lot of turnovers (27 – 13th in FBS) and finished with a +12 turnover margin. They also managed to pick up 30 sacks which placed them in the top half of the conference in sacks per game.
This year the Falcons are down to five returning starters after losing CB Clinton Stephens to injury. It is a plus that they get their two leading tacklers (both LBs) back for the 2016 season but the DL returns only one starter and they got shredded at times giving up plenty of rushing yards (399 vs Tenn, 299 vs Ohio, 452 vs Ga Southern). The combination of a sketchy DL and being down to one returning starter in the secondary leads us to believe that the Falcons’ defense will take a step back this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It appears to be a mixed bag. They need to find a new PK which is never fun. They were pretty much awful on punt returns and even worse on kickoff returns in 2015. However, they do have an excellent punter in Joseph Davidson who was a 1st Team MAC performer last year.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
That non-conference schedule looks pretty nasty. They play Ohio St and Memphis on the road and even the home game against MTSU is not a gimme. They also have some tough conference games away from home.
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. Plenty of new faces on offense. A new head coach. And we do not trust their defense. The offense is still a force to be reckoned with but we think this is going to be a down year for Bowling Green. Hey, that is allowed considering they went 36-19 the past four years. Probably gonna stay clear of the Falcons for the most part against the number.
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