College Football Predictions – Bowling Green Falcons 2018 NCAA Football Preview
2017 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 3-9
Yikes.
The Falcons managed to tally just a pair of victories last season and one of those was courtesy of the Kent St Golden Flashes. The Mike Jinks experiment has not started with a ton of success as Bowling Green has stumbled to a 6-18 record over the past two seasons.
The theory goes that year three is the magic moment when things “click”. Will that happen this season for the men in orange?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
MAC – #10
Bowling Green Falcons 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Falcons have managed to scrounge up a mere 25 PPG in each of the past two seasons. If your defense is not LIGHTS FREAKING OUT that will not get it done in the MAC. The good news is that freshman Jarret Doege looked really good at the end of the 2017 season and he finished with an impressive 64% completion rate and a 12-3 TD to INT ratio.
Bowling Green had another impressive freshman in RB Andrew Clair who rattled off 725 yards last season at an impressive 6.8 yards a pop. The WR unit should be decent with last season’s #1 Scott Miller (63, 722, 4 TD) back for action along with #3 wideout Datrin Guyton (18.9 YPC LY). The offensive line dealt with the dreaded injury bug last year but bring back 3/5 starters to the mix this season.
We expect much improved production in 2018 and expect 30+ PPG.
DEFENSE
The defense has been a DEBACLE the past two years allowing 38 PPG on each occasion. New DC Carl Pelini should be an upgrade from a coaching standpoint and he has seven returning starters to work with this season. The Falcons allowed an UNFATHOMABLE 253 YPG (!) on the ground (#126 FBS) in 2017 and absolutely need to clean that up BIG TIME before they can even think about challenging in the MAC East. They also need to find a way to get more pressure on the QB as they only bagged 15 sacks last year.
We are not asking for the impossible. Bowling Green allowed 15.9 (!!) PPG in 2013 and 16.8 PPG in 2012. Finishing at or near the bottom of the MAC is inexcusable. We forecast a significant improvement this year but note that the Falcons will have no shot at the MAC East crown unless they find a way to allow less than 30 PPG. #HotTake
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
This could be a problem area as they need to introduce a new PK and P. The return units were average last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not cool. They must deal with road dates at Oregon and Georgia Tech in non-conference play before facing Toledo and Ohio on the road in MACtion.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Georgia Tech (September 29). The Falcons have a week to prepare for the option before the heart of MACtion ACTION begins.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +110
Under 4.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
It’s hard to have any LEANAGE at this number. The schedule is really tough BUT if they can survive the first half of the docket it’s not impossible to see them getting on a run late in the year. <grabs popcorn>
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Your boy URBAN MEYER tallied a record of 17-6 at Bowling Green before leaving to coach the Utah Utes.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
Here’s the thing. The Falcons should have a fairly potent offense but they have been brutal on defense since Mike Jinks took over as HC. And the schedule is tough. The good news is the potential upside of QB Jarret Doege and the impact of Carl Pelini as DC.
Bowling Green was an impossible 7-17 vs Vegas in the first two years of the Mike Jinks experiment but we feel this team might be worth a look vs the point spread on many occasions this season.
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