College Football Predictions – Bowling Green Falcons 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 3-9
ATS – 4-8
It was another disappointing campaign for the Falcons as it took until their 10th game to finally beat an FBS opponent (Central Michigan, woo hoo). The Mike Jinks Experience comes to a merciful conclusion as Bowling Green won a mere nine games over the past three seasons. They booked TEN wins in 2015.
The rebuild starts with new HC Scot Loeffler coming over from Boston College. Let’s see if there is any hope on the short-term horizon.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
MAC – #12
Bowling Green Falcons 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Falcons got some disappointing news after spring activities were completed as starting QB Jarret Doege elected to transfer. That puts Bowling Green in quite a bind and we’ll have to see how things transpire during fall camp. Back-up Grant Loy is the leader in the clubhouse but Boston College transfer Matt McDonald is also in the mix for the starting gig. Stay tuned.
The Falcons move away from a pass-happy attack and plan on utilizing a lot more balance this year. The RB group looks decent with leading rusher Andrew Clair back in the mix along with a few promising back-ups. The bad news for the passing game is the departure of ace WR Scott Miller who led the MAC in receiving yards a season ago (1,148) and is off to the NFL (Buccaneers). The transfer of former Washington St product Isaiah Johnson-Mack is welcome news for the WR room. We’re happy to report that the offensive line returns four starters, although they will have to adapt to a new system.
The Falcons have scored 24-25 PPG in each of the last three seasons. With the uncertainty at QB and a new system to be learned, it’s hard to call for much improvement in 2019.
DEFENSE
The Falcons put on a comical display of defense last year allowing 40 PPG (#125 FBS) and they were LEGENDARILY bad vs the run yielding 281 YPG (#128 FBS). QB kneel downs routinely went for huge gains. There were a lot of injuries to contend with, but that performance was unacceptable.
Bowling Green returns just five starters and two of their top-nine tacklers from last season’s stop unit and could be in for another long year. The DL has a lot of work to do but they have a pair of starters back and add DE David Konowalski who missed last season due to injury. The LB group is inexperienced and the secondary might take a step backwards after finishing #3 in the MAC in pass efficiency defense LY. Yes, teams didn’t need to pass that much when they were running at will, but keep in mind they only allowed 53% completions (#1 MAC). Senior FS Jerry McBride returns and that is good news for the defense. One final thought. Bowling Green has only managed to bag 15 sacks in each of the past two years, and if they want to achieve anything close to moderate improvement, they need to get more heat on the QB.
The run defense can’t possibly be any worse than it was last year, but it’s hard to project much improvement on this side of the ball.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This was a sore spot a season ago and we don’t have high hopes for the upcoming season. The return units were awful in 2018 and PK Nate Needham was just 6/10 on three-point attempts.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not kind. They have road trips to Kansas St and Notre Dame in non-conference action and draw Toledo and Western Michigan from the MAC West.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Notre Dame (October 5)
Notre Dame is in a lookahead spot with USC on deck but this is not the time we want to back a weak and inexperienced team.
Season Win Total
Over 3 -145
Under 3 +125
MEGALOCKS says:
It’s hard to see the Falcons netting more than three wins BUT we usually stay clear of the really low season win totals.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Your boy Urban Meyer had a record of 17-6 in two seasons with Bowling Green before moving on to coach the Utah Utes.
The Falcons have won 12 MAC Championships.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
Not even PICASSO could paint a pretty picture. There isn’t much hope for optimism in the short term, but there’s no reason to think they can’t show improvement by the end of the year, and head into 2020 with higher expectations.
We’ll take a negative ATS stance to start the year, but keep in mind that at some point the point spreads might get ridiculously high, and that may provide <gulp> value on the Falcons.
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