College Football Predictions – Buffalo Bulls 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 10-4
ATS – 9-5
That’s as tough as it gets.
Buffalo booked seven wins in MACTION play and found themselves in the MAC Championship game with a record of 10-2. Not only that, they managed to squirt out to a 29-10 lead in the third quarter. What could possibly go wrong? Well, the Northern Illinois Huskies didn’t quit and came back to win all the MAC marbles by a score of 30-29. The Bulls led the Troy Trojans at halftime of the Dollar General but were eventually put to bed (L 42-32).
Are the Bulls capable of another division title run?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
MAC – #6
Buffalo Bulls 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s not going to be easy moving on from one of the best QBs in the MAC. Tyree Jackson led the Bulls to a MAC East crown a season ago (3,131, 28-12 TD to INT, 7 rush TD) and decided to enter the NFL draft. Jackson went undrafted and signed as a free agent with the Buffalo Bills. It’s anyone’s guess at this point who ends up under center as there are plenty of inexperienced options that will look to impress the coaches in fall camp. Stay tuned. Whatever happens, the production at the position is sure to take a significant drop. It doesn’t help that the Bulls lose both pieces of their excellent WR duo in Anthony Johnson and KJ Osborn who combined for over 1,900 yards and 18 TDs (!) in 2018. Charlie Jones is a good WR to build around but there are definite questions about the passing attack. The OL should be a team strength with four returning starters and don’t forget that they allowed a mere 15 sacks last year.
The focus of the offense has to be the excellent stable of running backs that they have on hand, and in fact, they might have the best 1-2 combo in the MAC. Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks combined for over 1,800 yards rushing and an impossible 27 TDs a season ago. Both men are just sophomores.
Buffalo booked 34.6 PPG LY (#3 MAC) but we project a significant drop-off this season unless they have a SURPRISE PACKAGE at QB.
DEFENSE
The Bulls have played solid defense under HC Lance Leipold and have allowed less than 30 PPG in three of his four seasons in Buffalo. This year is going to be a challenge as they only return three starters and lose the heart of the defense in LB Khalil Hodge who tallied an amazing 144 tackles in 2018. It’s not all a lost cause. The defensive line has some experience and size on the interior, and the LB group can build around sophomore James Patterson. The Bulls were #4 in the MAC last season in pass efficiency defense but only return one starter in the secondary and lose a pair of reliable CBs.
It seems that Buffalo is destined to take a step back on defense. They’ve lost a lot of experience, and keep in mind that the Bulls tallied 35 sacks last year (#2 MAC), and a lot of that production needs to be replaced.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things have been dismal in this department for quite a while and it doesn’t look good this time around. Punter Evan Finegan had an acceptable 37-yard net LY but had two kicks blocked. They need to find a new PK (uh, oh) and do a better job on returns.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We are gonna find out a lot about the Bulls in the first half of the campaign. They have a nasty game at Penn St in week two and play their two primary rivals in the MAC East in back-to-back weeks (at Miami Ohio, Ohio). That’s not ideal timing when you have so many new faces.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Miami Ohio (September 28)
Not a great spot for the Bulls coming off a pair of recent physical games with Penn St and Temple. This will be Buffalo’s 3rd road game in four weeks and the Bulls have been a poor road dog ATS during the Leipold regime.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -145
Under 6 +125
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks about right. There are enough FREE SQUARES on the docket to get to six wins. It’s just hard to know what to expect from a team returning just eight starters. Passing for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bulls are now in 0-3 all-time in bowl games after their loss to Troy in the 2018 Dollar General Bowl.
Legend has it that the first University of Buffalo football team was formed by a group of medical students in 1894.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
The Bulls came SO CLOSE to taking down a MAC Championship last year, but now it’s time to restock and reload. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from this team with so many new starters on both sides of the ball. One thing we do know is that they will have a hard time competing with a good-looking Ohio Bobcats squad. Then again, they get Ohio at home and we’re talking about MACTION.
The Bulls have one of the best ATS records in college football over the past two seasons recording a mark of 17-7-2 (71%) vs the number. We are not interested in backing Buffalo at the windows until we see them play three or four games. It may be worth looking to play against them early as they still have some brand recognition with bettors after their fine 10-win campaign in 2018.
Regardless, Go Buffalo!
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