BYU at Navy – College Football Predictions
The Game
Monday Night Football, baby!
The Cougars managed to grind out a 7-6 record last year despite suffering a boatload of injuries and playing a really tough schedule. They even managed to SHOCK the WORLD when they took down Boise St (W 28-25). Navy was GREAT last year and won 11 (!!) games including a blowout win over Army (W 31-7) and a victory over Kansas St in the Liberty Bowl. Their only two losses were ON THE HIGHWAY vs Memphis and Notre Dame.
The Details
BYU -1 Navy (53)
MEGALOCKS LINE – BYU -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: BYU 27 Navy 26
The Match-Up:
BYU offense vs Navy defense
The Cougars had a sneaky good passing game last year despite enduring MUSICAL CHAIRS at the QB position due to injury (#26 FBS passing offense). Zach Wilson is almost certain to be the starting QB in this game but note that he was a bit inconsistent LY (11-9 TD to INT ratio). He will also have an essentially brand new set of targets at WR and TE and note that they just got the BAD news that star TE Matt Bushman is OFY due to injury. Bushman led the team in receiving yards LY and was the only returning Cougar that booked more than 400Y in 2019. The RB depth is also sketchy and it’s unclear if there is a true #1 back on the roster. The QB room is loaded, and we also really like the look of an offensive line that returns five starters and over 100 career starts. Navy played REALLY strong defense LY in year one under DC Brian Newberry and finished the season ranked #16 (!) in the FBS in total defense and #10 vs the run. They also bagged an impressive 30 sacks. Seven starters return to the stop unit and their secondary looks particularly strong. Also note that they return their excellent MLB Diego Fagot who led the squad in tackles LY (100; 12 TFL).
It seems to us that BYU will do well to exceed their implied team total.
Navy offense vs BYU defense
WHOA, NELLIE. Former Navy QB Malcolm Perry put on one of the most amazing displays of rushing last year when he booked 10 (!) 100-yard games en route to a 2,000-yard season on the ground. Totally unstoppable. Navy comes into this game with a question mark at QB, and it’s still unclear as we head to press time who will start the game vs BYU. The last depth chart we saw had senior Dalen Morris listed as QB1, but whatever happens, we trust HC Niumatalolo will make the best call. Their excellent FB Jamale Carothers (6.6, 14 TD LY) returns for duty but the SB position is lacking in depth after a few opt-outs and injuries. BYU’s defense will have to CARRY THE WATER for the team, at least early on until the offense figures out how to be most effective, and they return seven starters to the mix. They look to be above-average at every level of the defense and have an excellent LB tandem in Kavika Fonua and Isaiah Kaufusi. Our primary worry about the D is a lack of proven pass rush ability, but that’s obviously not much of a concern in this affair.
We expect Navy to grind things out and get their points but it’s difficult to project their output with a new QB.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
BYU is 11-15 ATS as road chalk L10Y including an 0-5 ABOMINATION in 2019…..Navy is 54-13 SU (!) at home under COACH KEN…..The plandemic rules for this event entail no fans in the stands…..Can’t be too safe…..Weather forecast about a week out looks good but we’ll keep tabs on it as always.
Summary
It’s a tough game to call. We still see a bit of perceived value with the Cougars from a power rating perspective but it’s hard to know how successful BYU will be on offense with so many missing pieces. It’s also fair to assume that Navy’s offense will be less potent, but to what degree?
Conclusion
Slight lean: BYU -1.5
Lean: Under 53
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you need action. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are very likely to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need some sweet action and want advice.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in that market.