BYU Cougars 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 7, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 11-2
ATS – 9-4
Yes, guy.
BYU flew out of the gates and won nine (!) consecutive games to open the season. The opponents weren’t all CHOPPED LIVER as they took down SMU (!), Kansas St, Baylor, and Utah along the way. And don’t forget that they administered pain to MEGALOCKS subscribers when they smoked UCF down in Orlando. That ended up being a 95 star SAFE AND EFFECTIVE DEATH JAB INDUCED STROKE POWER LOCK loser. The Cougars fell to Kansas and Arizona St in back-to-back weeks in November and that essentially killed their chances at making the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cougars finished the season in style by eviscerating the Colorado Buffaloes and your boy Coach Prime in the Alamo Bowl (W 36-14) to finish the season at 11-2. Clearly, it was a job well done.
BYU Cougars 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
There could be some trouble on the horizon as starting QB Jake Retzlaff has left the team and he was a key ingredient in the Cougars’ success LY (20-12 TD to INT; 417 rush, 6 TD). The battle for the starting gig is currently between a pair of Group of Five castoffs in Treyson Bourguet (Western Michigan) and McCae Hillstead (Utah St). Neither of those guys got a snap whilst with BYU last year so it’ll be interesting to see how camp goes over the summer months. Our DEEP BYU INSIDERS believe that Hillstead has the edge due to his fit with the offensive system but nothing is certain at this point. The RB room is solid thanks to the return of #1 option LJ Martin (718, 7 TD) and there’s good depth behind him. BYU loses two of their top-three WRs from LY’s squad but the good news is that star WR Chase Roberts is back in the mix (854, 16.4, 4 TD) and we like the potential of WR Jojo Phillips (21.1, 2 TD). It would be great if they can get some production out of the TE group so keep your eye on Utah transfer Carsen Ryan. The offensive line played very well LY (4.6 YPC, 18 sacks allowed) and they’ve been a high-performing position group for the majority of the L5Y. We expect them to be fine up front in 2025 despite losing a few key contributors.
DEFENSE
WHOA, NELLIE.
There was hope for the BYU stop unit to be pretty good last season but they exceeded expectations and allowed a mere 19.6 PPG (#18 FBS) whilst doing a good job vs the run (#33) and elite work vs the pass (#3 pass efficiency D, 13-22 TD to INT!). Things look good heading into 2025 despite losing some key contributors over the offseason. The DL has good size and plenty of senior leadership, and note the addition of NT Keanu Tanuvasa (Utah) and 345-pound DT Justin Kirkland (Oklahoma St). They could use a bit more of a pass rush from the DE spot but you can’t have everything. The LB corps is still one of the best in the Big 12 given the return of the devastating combo of Jack Kelly (5 sacks, 10 TFL, 14 QBH) and Isaiah Glasker (#1 tackles, 14.5 TFL), and the only potential weak link on defense appears to be at CB where they need some new faces to step up.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BYU will have one of the best special teams units in the nation this year (#4 LY per Phil Steele) as they can bank on deadly PK Will Ferrin (24/27 FG, 41/41 XP LY!) to have another excellent season and punter Sam Vander Haar is one of the best in the conference. But wait, there’s more! It stings to lose ace KR Keelan Marion (2 KR TD LY) but they’ve still got an elite PR in Parker Kingston (14.8, 2 TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s very favorable, yo. The non-conference schedule doesn’t force them to play any killers, and if they can take down Stanford (H) and the ARRRRRRRRR East Carolina Pirates (A), how does a 3-0 start sound? The Cougars miss Arizona St and Kansas St and have a soft finishing stretch to take advantage of if needed (at Cincinnati, UCF). The ultimate success of their season will almost certainly come down to a nasty three-game stretch beginning in the middle of October (Utah, at Iowa St, at Texas Tech).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Iowa St (Oct 25)
This will be the BYU’s sixth consecutive week of hitting the gridiron and the last of four road games in that stretch. For what it’s worth, Iowa St is 5-0 all-time vs BYU with their last meeting coming in 2023 (BYU lost 45-13 in Provo).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 7
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
We’ve got a slight preference to back the ‘over’ at this price point but we can’t do it without having more clarity on the QB situation. Five or six wins seems like the absolute floor.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Kalani Sitake has led the Cougars to double-digit winning seasons in three of the last five years. Sitake has been solid vs the point spread in the role of road underdog (17-9, 65%) but a bit disappointing ATS as a home favorite (17-22, 44%).
The last time the Cougars had a negative turnover margin was back in 2017 when they were (-10). If you wanna travel back in the time machine a bit further, BYU hasn’t recorded 30 or more sacks since 2015 (!) when they got to the QB 40 times.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
In a conference CHOCK-FULL of high-powered quarterbacks it’s clear that BYU is behind the EIGHT BALL after the departure of QB Jake Retzlaff. Thankfully, the Cougars don’t have any other glaring weaknesses and the schedule will lend a helping hand. We won’t call for them to compete for a conference title but we’d be surprised if they didn’t make another trip to a bowl game. Good luck, BYU!