College Football Predictions – California Golden Bears 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 7-6
ATS – 5-7-1
The Golden Bears bagged their 2nd winning season since 2011 when they finished up with a record of 7-6 in year three of the Justin Wilcox era. There were a couple of nice wins including an entertaining (we don’t mind intense low-scoring games!) 15-14 victory at USC and a 12-10 triumph over the Washington Huskies. The defense was outstanding, but it’s clear that they need to make some serious strides on offense in order to win a division crown.
Do they have what it takes to get to back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2008-2009? Inquiring minds want to know.
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #5
PAC 12 – #11
California Golden Bears 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Cal had a REALLY tough time scoring points last season and finished DEAD LAST in the conference in total offense (344 YPG). The two mains culprits were the QB carousel that prohibited the Golden Bears from getting any consistency and the INSANE amount of turnovers (31 – worst in the FBS). It appears as though there will be a two-man battle for the starting QB gig between sophomore Chase Garbers (61%, 14-10 TD to INT LY) and UCLA transfer Devon Modster. It’s impossible to imagine more disappointing QB play than they displayed last season but we are not exactly supremely confident in the QB room.
The news doesn’t get much better at the skill positions. Cal must find a replacement for reliable RB Patrick Laird who led the team in rushing a year ago (961, 5 TD) whilst also leading the team in receptions (!!) with 51. Five of the top six players in both receiving yards and receptions have moved on. Yikes. The hope is that someone can emerge as a #1 RB (perhaps sophomore Christopher Brown) and that some of the young talent at WR and TE contributes immediately. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters and need to do some better work. Cal allowed 36 sacks last season (#11 PAC-12) and only averaged 4.20 YPC (#6 PAC-12)
The offense is almost certain to produce more points than they did last season (21.5 PPG) but we think that their PPG mark of 27.8 in 2017 is probably the best you can hope for in 2019.
DEFENSE
The Golden Bears return seven starters to a defense that was fantastic last year allowing just 20.4 PPG (#3 PAC-12). They were #1 in the conference in YPP (4.59) and tallied 31 sacks. The strength of the defense is a secondary that returns every starter to a unit that was dominant last season. They led the PAC-12 in pass efficiency defense and posted a remarkable 13-21 TD to INT ratio. The front seven should be fine and the LB corps returns MLB Evan Weaver who racked up a phenomenal 159 (!) tackles (#2 FBS), 9.5 TFL and a pair of INT a season ago. The LBs will be strengthened by the return of Cameron Goode and the addition of JUCO transfer Kuony Deng.
We expect the Cal defense to lead them to victory on more than one occasion and they clearly have one of the best defenses in the PAC-12.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look pretty good. P Steven Coutts does a nice job and PK Greg Thomas was 12/17 on FGs last year. Ashtyn Davis is one of the best KR in the PAC-12 and he is coming off a season in which he averaged 26.2 yards per return.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Things get real in short order with a road game at Washington in week 2. They also face stern road tests at Ole Miss, Oregon, Utah, and Stanford.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – North Texas (September 14)
This game falls right after the big game with Washington noted above and before a road date with the Rebels of Ole Miss. North Texas can score on just about anyone and this might not be the spot you want to lay a big number with the Golden Bears.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -130
Under 5.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. Tough call. The defense will be a brick wall but that schedule is nasty. And that offense. Yikes. Taking a pass for now and may revisit closer to when the season kicks off.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
Memorial Stadium was built to honor Berkeley alumni, students, and other Californians who died in World War I and is modeled after the Colosseum in Rome.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Negative
The old adage that defense wins championships is often true, but exceptions often arise when a team is really poor on offense. They will be better than last season (how could they not be?) and won’t turn the ball over as often (how could they?) but it remains to be seen if they can hang with the good teams on their schedule. And there are a lot of them. Cal needs to find a way to get things done on the road (18-37 L10Y) and in PAC-12 play (30-60 L10Y).
When it comes to the point spread, we have a slightly negative view. 99% of the time we are fond of teams that play great defense but we need to see how the offense looks in the first month of the season before we back them at the windows. Cal is just 54-67-2 ATS over the past 10 seasons (46%) but HC Wilcox has been decent vs Vegas since he arrived in Berkeley two years ago and has posted a mark of 13-11-1 ATS. Use caution early.
Want more California Football ?
WEBSITE
http://www.calbears.com/index.aspx?path=football
FORUM
https://cal.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-bears-lair.8/
https://bearinsider.com/forums/1
NEWS
http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/
http://www.mercurynews.com/cal-bears
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/25/california-golden-bears
http://bleacherreport.com/cal-bears-football
TWITTER
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