California Golden Bears 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 11, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 6-7
ATS – 6-7
“We’re going streaking!”
<Frank the Tank>
<Old School>
The Bears ROARED out of the starting blocks and won their first three games, and one of those was a triumph over Auburn (W 21-14) as 12-point underdogs. That streak ended abruptly and Cal lost the next four games in a row, and any hope of a memorable season went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain. However, they got back on the beam and won three times in a four-game stretch before dropping the regular season finale and finishing at 6-6. They fell to UNLV in the LA Communist Hellscape Bowl (L 24-13) and that meant another losing season for the Golden Bears. There were a lot of close shaves along the way and they could’ve bagged a few more wins, but that’s the way it goes sometimes.
California Golden Bears 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Golden Bears had a 3,000-yard QB in Fernando Mendoza LY but they couldn’t get much going on the ground (122 YPG, #103). They were also mediocre on 3rd and 4th downs, and in the red zone which led to a disappointing output of 25 PPG (#90). It appears as though Cal will be rolling with Ohio St (!) transfer Devin Brown at QB who hasn’t got much playing time thus far, so we’ll see how things play out. The entire RB room has been cleared out and they’ll be relying on transfer portal additions to pick up all of the slack. It looks like a committee approach will be in play, but maybe LJ Johnson Jr. (SMU) can give them #1 RB production? There’s also massive carnage to report in the WR/TE arena as the Bears lose almost everyone including stud TE Jack Endries (623, 11.1, 2 TD) who’s off to do damage with the mighty Texas Longhorns (!). On a positive note, WR Trond Grizzell has decided to remain in town (401, 14.9, TD) and they added productive WR Jacob De Jesus (606, 2 TD; UNLV) to the mix. The offensive line is a bit of a mystery as they only return a pair of starters but they added a lot of experienced specimens thru the portal. It’s worth noting that Cal allowed an impossibly impossible 50 (!) sacks LY (tied for LAST with Oklahoma) so they’ve obviously gotta clean that mess up.
DEFENSE
The defense was phenomenal LY as they were stout vs the run (110 YPG, #14 FBS) and stingy vs the THROW GAME (#25 pass efficiency D, 56%, 17-17 TD to INT). Six of their top-seven tacklers are no longer with the team but the the DL and LB corps still appear to be in decent shape. TJ Bush is a nice addition at DE and they’ve got nice size on the interior, and there are a couple of stalwarts in the middle of the defense in LB Cade Uluave (#2 tackles, 3 TFL, 5 QBH) and Colorado St transfer Buom Jock (100 tackles, INT LY). The big issue is on the back end where the Golden Bears lose THREE (!) NFL draft picks and they’ll need at least a couple of transfers to provide a high volume of productive snaps. Cal has been solid on defense more often than not under the guiding hand of HC Justin Wilcox who’s got an excellent defensive mind, but we project a moderate decline in performance this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things don’t look great as the unit will be completely overhauled this year after finishing a very respectable #33 in the Phil Steele rankings last season. We feel good about the potential of PK Chase Meyer who was solid at Tulsa in 2023 (17/20 FG, 30/31 XP) but we’ll have to wait and see how the rest of the group shakes out.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Hey, some good news bay-bee. The non-conference schedule is tricky but there aren’t any killers on the menu (at Oregon St, Minnesota, at San Diego St). The ACC schedule is favorable as they avoid Clemson and Miami, and they get to face SMU at home. The road games at LUA-VUH and Virginia Tech will be tough, but you can’t have everything.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (Nov 1)
Cal is forced to make a 2,700 mile trip to one of the most hostile venues in college football and note that the Hokies will be coming off a bye week.
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 11
Over 5.5 +120
Under 5.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage.
This doesn’t look like a bowl team on paper but the schedule is fairly kind. Our GUN to the HEAD selection is the ‘under’ but we’ll have to do some more work on this market over the summer.
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Justin Wilcox has been phenomenal vs the point spread in role of the underdog (32-17, 65%). That breaks down to 13-5 at home, 19-11 on the road, and 0-1 in neutral site affairs.
The Golden Bears haven’t put together a winning season since 2019 when they finished with a record of 8-5. Interestingly, that was the last time Cal won a bowl game (35-20 vs Illinois in Redbox Bowl).
According to some experts, approximately 88% of the student population at the University of California, Berkeley have been grown in pods similar to what was seen in excellent science fiction movie, and stellar Keanu Reeves vehicle, THE MATRIX. The communist wackos are grown in crop fields and human ponds and then harvested when plump and juicy with the mission of destroying Western civilization ****.
**** Fact check – Not a stretch for an institution located in California that is highly regarded for its research capabilities.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
This is shaping up to be a challenging season for the Golden Bears. The QB situation is a bit worrisome and it’s not fair to ask the defense to play up to last year’s standards. Cal lost almost two dozen players after spring camp and whilst the schedule is favorable overall, they’ve still gotta make three long road trips. We were a lot more bullish on the roster last year and they only managed to win six games. It’s definitely going to be tough to make a bowl game in 2025.