Camellia Bowl – Georgia Southern vs Eastern Michigan
The Game
All EAGLES, ALL DAY. <kaw kaw> <attempts to make eagle noise>
The Georgia Southern Eagles come into this game with nine wins just a year removed from a GREASE FIRE of a season in which they went 2-10. They had a shot at winning the division until they lost to Troy in November. The Eastern Michigan Eagles did Eastern Michigan things playing in a lot of close games. They managed to win five of their last six contests and guarantee just their 2nd winning season since 1995.
Camellia Bowl, baby. Let’s roll!
The Details
Georgia Southern -1.5 Eastern Michigan (47.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia Southern -3
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia Southern 24.5 Eastern Michigan 23
The Match-Up:
Georgia Southern offense vs Eastern Michigan defense
The Eagles have a unique pistol option attack that rumbled for 261 yards per game during the regular season (#9 FBS). What is most interesting about their offense is that they are just #114 in total offense but #49 in scoring offense. How does that happen? Well there are a lot of reasons including the fact that on the rare occasion that GS decides to MATRICULATE down the field in the passing game they are VERY efficient (0 INTs this year. Yup. Fact.) and rank #6 in the FBS in passing efficiency (#127 in passing yards). They also dominate in the red zone (#5 FBS) and almost never turn the ball over (5 turnovers in 12 games). QB Shai Werts does a really good job managing the attack. The match-up is not ideal for Eastern Michigan because they are ranked #93 vs the run and #12 in pass efficiency defense. The good news? They are really tough to score on in the red zone (#4 FBS) and should give GS some fits when they get into scoring position. Army has a similar offense (similar, but different scheme, blocking, etc..) and they rushed for 289 yards vs EM whilst maintaining a 27-10 edge in first downs. EM managed to hold their last three opponents to just 77,61 and 179 yards rushing (one rushing TD allowed in those games) BUT keep in mind that Georgia Southern is a different animal than Central Michigan, Akron and Kent St. We can see GS exceeding their implied team total of 24.5 points but it’s hard to see them going bananas.
Eastern Michigan offense vs Georgia Southern defense
It hasn’t been pretty but the Eastern Michigan offense did enough to help the team win seven games this season. They are ranked #88 in total offense (#93 rushing, #66 passing) but don’t make many mistakes. Former Iowa Hawkeye QB Tyler Wiegers has a good 11-3 TD to INT ratio but did not throw a TD pass in either of EM’s last two games. The secret weapon in this game might be QB Mike Glass (check on his status closer to game time) who had a pair of 100-yard rushing games and also lit up Buffalo for 284 yards passing. Glass gives the offense a different look and will help them convert on 3rd downs (#120 overall this season). The rushing attack is a bit of a grind in terms of RB production (3.8 yards per carry as a team) although Ian Eriksen finished the season with 214 yards in the last two games. The WR group isn’t flashy but it is more than good enough to test the GS secondary. The Eagles are ranked #44 in total defense (#43 vs run, #48 pass efficiency D) but you can move the ball on these guys. Arkansas St (493), New Mexico St (443), ULM (573) and Troy (454) all managed to do some damage. The EM offense is not as good as those units BUT we see no reason why they can’t get into the 20s.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Georgia Southern won their only bowl appearance back in the 2015 GoDaddy Bowl when they plastered Bowling Green…..Eastern Michigan has only made two bowl appearances in school history and their only win came back in 1987…….The first four editions of the Camellia Bowl have all been tight ones with one-score winning margins (5,2,3,5)…..Georgia Southern is #1 in the FBS in turnover margin (+22) (!) and Eastern Michigan is T10 (+10).
Summary
This should be a really good game. Eastern Michigan has a developed a habit of playing in a lot of close ones. Both defenses are solid. Georgia Southern will move the ball on the ground and Eastern Michigan has enough talent to do some damage but will need to do a good job on 3rd downs and sustain drives. The Georgia Southern attack can wear your defense out.
We lean to Georgia Southern in this one but keep in mind that Eastern Michigan beat Purdue on the road and lost one-score games to Buffalo, San Diego St and Northern Illinois. Two of those were in OT.
Both teams should be very motivated to win this game.
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Georgia Southern.
Total: Slight lean to the over.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.