Houston Cougars 2022 College Football Preview

Houston Cougars 2022 College Football Preview

July 9, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 8-6

That was quite the ride, yo.

Houston dropped their opener to Texas Tech, a game in which they led at one point by 2 TDs, and then proceeded to go on a magical HEEETER and win 11 games in a row. The Cougars didn’t exactly face a MUDERERS ROW of opponents but it’s always a significant accomplishment for anyone to win that many consecutive games. They took on the mighty Cincinnati Bearcats in the AAC title game and fell by a score of 35-20 but kept their chins up and defeated SEC (!) foe Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl (W 17-13).

Houston Cougars 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

It was a good news, bad news situation for Houston LY as they struggled on the ground (#86 FBS, 142 YPG) but did good things with the THROW GAME (#23, 272 YPG). QB Clayton Tune had a great 2021 campaign (30-10 TD to INT, 68%) and comes into his senior year full of confidence. Houston lost some WR depth but still boast one of the best WRs in college football in Tank Dell (90, 1,329, 14.8, 12 TD LY) and note that they added a number of talented transfers to the mix. The Cougars offense took a blow with the ACL injury to #1 RB Alton McCaskill in the spring (961, 16 TD) and will rely on Ta’Zhawn Henry to carry more of the load. The OL suffered some significant attrition including their fine center Kody Russey and are much less experienced than they were in 2021. Houston put up 36 PPG LY and we think they’ll be hard-pressed to reach that level of productivity this season.

DEFENSE

Houston was just flat out NASTY on defense last year in almost every key metric. They were #6 in the FBS in total defense (301 YPG), strong vs the run (#10, 107 YPG), stingy vs the pass (#14 pass efficiency D), a brick wall on 3rd downs (#1, 25.7%), and MASTERS of PENETRATION (43 sacks, T6). There’s reason for at least a bit of concern heading into 2022 as the Cougars return six starters on defense and lose their excellent CB duo (Williams, Jones) who are both off to dominate in the NFL. They still look stout up front and return a fine pass rushing duo in D’Anthony Jones and Derek Parish (combined 12.5 sacks LY) and leading tackler Donavan Mutin is back at MLB. They have a pair of experienced safeties but will greatly miss the aforementioned CB duo. We expect to see a very good, but not great defense like the 2021 version.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Houston has fared very well L3Y in the Phil Steele special teams ratings (#28, #15, #3) but suffer a pair of yuuuge losses in PK Dalton Witherspoon and PR Marcus Jones who had a PAIR of TDs in 2021.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Yes, guy. They somehow, someway, miss both UCF and Cincinnati in conference play and the non-conference docket is very manageable.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 19 – at East Carolina

This will be Houston’s 3rd road test in five weeks and East Carolina is gonna give most teams fits this year.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 9

Over 9 -130

Under 9 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

That looks about right according to our DEEP AAC INSIDERS. The roster isn’t as strong as LY but the schedule is BUTTERY SOFT.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Houston boasts a winning record over every current AAC school with the exception of UCF (3-7).

The last head coach to leave Houston with a losing record (other than the legendary Chris Thurmond who had a mark of 0-1) is Dana Dimel who put together a less-than-sparkling record of 8-26 (.235). Amaze the next 340-POUND PSYCHOTIC PURPLE-HAIRED KAREN you see with that trivia nugget.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The Cougars were finally able to flash potential last season in year three of the Dana Holgorsen experiment. They’ve got a great shot to get back to the conference title game given the way the schedule sets up but we still rank them a notch below Cincinnati and UCF from a power rating point of view. They’ll be right in the thick of things heading into November and just might find their way back to playing for all the AAC marbles.

Want more Houston Cougars football ?

WEBSITE

https://uhcougars.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.coogfans.com/c/football

https://houston.forums.rivals.com/forums/cullen-boulevard.10/

NEWS

https://www.chron.com/sports/cougars/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/248/houston-cougars

UCF Knights 2022 College Football Preview

UCF Knights 2022 College Football Preview

July 9, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 9-4

ATS – 5-8

The Knights took down Boise St in a very exiting season opener (W 36-31) but lost three of their next five games. Losing their starting QB didn’t help, yo. They got things together in the second half and won five of six to finish the regular season at 8-4. UCF kept rolling in the Gasparilla Bowl and defeated SEC foe Florida by a score of 29-17.

Are the Knights ready to get back to the top of the AAC pecking order?

UCF Knights 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Knights lost starting QB Dillon Gabriel early on last year and it took a few games for them to figure things out. They did a fine job on the ground (196 YPG, #28) and got serviceable play from freshman QB Mikey Keene (17-6 TD to INT, 64%). Ole Miss transfer John Rhys Plumlee, who just might be the fastest man on Earth, will battle for the starting QB gig and gives the Knights yet another scary ground game option. Plumlee joins a loaded RB group that returns everyone including the HOME RUN HITTER Johnny Richardson (750, 7.0). Five of the top-six in terms of receiving yards are back in the mix including the crafty Ryan O’Keefe who caught 84 (!) balls LY whilst averaging 17 yards on 16 carries. Malzahn also poached Auburn’s #1 (!) WR in Kobe Hudson. Four starters return to the offensive line and they added GIGANTOR RT Ryan Swoboda from Virginia (6-10, 325). We expect this offense to do major damage.

DEFENSE

UCF has been rock solid on defense every year since 2016 with the exception of the 2020 SCAMDEMIC season. Last year they finished #4 in the AAC in total defense (369 YPG) and #3 in scoring defense (24.5 PPG) whilst tallying 36 sacks (#3). Eight starters are back in action but they lose a pair of key pieces in LB Tatum Bethune and the ultra-disruptive DL Big Kat Bryant (14 TFL, 10 QBH). The DL and LB personnel are above-average AAC groups but the real CROWN JEWEL is a secondary that returns basically everyone. The Knights were excellent vs the pass in 2021 (#6 FBS pass efficiency D, 12-11 TD to INT, 58%, 5.8) and we expect a similar performance in 2022.

SPECIAL TEAMS

There’s plenty of continuity aboard but they need to get better performance from PK Daniel Obarski (8-14 FG, 1-6 40+) and find some SPICIER options at PR and KR.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It looks really good. They only play five road games and five of their first six games are at the BOUNCE HOUSE. They don’t have any killer non-conference games, don’t have to play Houston, and take on Cincinnati in Orlando.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 26 – at South Florida

This will be the Knights fourth road game in six weeks and seventh consecutive week taking the field. We expect South Florida to be a much-improved bunch. GET CHO POPCONE for this one!

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 9

Over 8.5 -135

Under 8.5 +105

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

It’s not crazy to think that UCF could be favored in all 12 regular season games.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Knights are an absolutely DEVASTATING 30-2 (!) at home since 2017 with the only two losses coming during the wacky 2020 CASEDEMIC season.

The WAR on I-4 has been heavily slanted to UCF recently as the Knights have taken down their hated rival from South Florida five straight times.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

SCARY. That’s the look of this team heading into 2022. Gus Malzahn has got this roster stocked CHOCK FULL of talent and the schedule is extremely manageable. We’re not 100% sold on the QB situation but we still expect to see these guys in the AAC Championship Game.

Want more UCF Knights football ?

WEBSITE

https://ucfknights.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://ucf.forums.rivals.com/forums/ucf-fan-forum.8/

http://ucf.247sports.com/Board/UCF-Knights-Message-Board-Forum-59489

NEWS

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/ucf-knights/

http://knightnews.com/category/sports/football/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2116/ucf-knights

East Carolina Pirates 2022 College Football Preview

East Carolina Pirates 2022 College Football Preview

July 8, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 7-5

ATS – 7-5

ARRRRRRR, Shiver Me Timbers!

The Pirates banked their first winning season since 2014 (!) and finished the campaign with a mark of 7-5. They rattled off four straight wins in the second half before dropping the season finale to the devastating Cincinnati Bearcats (L 35-13). They were denied an opportunity to go for an eighth win in the Military Bowl when it was canceled due to the totally surprising ineffectiveness of wearing masks and the DEATH JAB PROTOCOL $$.

You still gotta figure that East Carolina has confidence heading into 2022. ARRRRRR!

East Carolina Pirates 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

East Carolina was decent on offense LY (#39 FBS total offense, #54 scoring offense) and they have two-thirds of the THREE HEADED MONSTER back in 2022. Veteran QB Holton Ahlers is coming off a good season (62%, 18-10 TD to INT, 6 rush TD) but it would help if he could cut down on the INT. RB Keaton Mitchell was devastating (1,132, 9 TD) and averaged an impossible 6.5 YPC LY. They lose #1 WR Tyler Snead and it remains to be seen if they have a true #1 THROW GAME option on the roster. At least the Pirates got some good news with the return of CJ Johnson (35, 520, TD) from suspension in May. Three starters return up front and West Virginia transfer Parker Moorer might be the starting left tackle in week one. They’ll need to clean up things in the sack department if they wanna be more efficient (37, 2nd worst AAC).

DEFENSE

The Pirates made big strides LY and allowed 26.3 PPG (#4 AAC) after yielding 35.4, 33.7, 37.3, 45.0 (!), 36.1 the previous 5Y. The defense features eight returning starters including six in the front seven and they’re very experienced up front, albeit still a bit undersized. The LB unit is a productive and veteran group (Berry, Lewis, Smith) but our concern is a secondary that loses a pair of starters including their outstanding AA CB JaQuan McMillian (#2 tackler, 5 INT, 16 PBU LY). We know, we know…..you’ve heard this before, but this defense appears to be an “average” AAC bunch. We like the potential up front, but it’s never great to lose your best defensive player.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Owen Daffer is a KILLER (1st team AAC, 19-23 FG LY) but they need to find a new primary KR and PR. Losing punter John Young is also a tough blow (43.1, 40.4 net).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The Pirates should be able to get off to a good start with four straight home games but the 2nd half is much tougher. They draw all three BIG ‘UNS from the AAC but get to face Houston and UCF at home.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 28 – at BYU

Provo is always a nasty road environment and this contest pops up in the middle of AAC action.

Season Win Total

Lean: Over

Over 6 -140

Under 6 +110

MEGALOCKS says:

It’s not one of our favorite leans at first glance but they should be able to bag a good number of wins before November rolls around. 51 of our 67 models have them winning six games or more with the most popular outcome being ‘6’.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The streak continues, yo. East Carolina hasn’t tasted bowl victory since 2013 when they defeated Ohio in the world famous BEEF O’BRADY’S BOWL (W 37-20).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It’s great to see these guys becoming a factor in the AAC. Keep in mind that they lost five games last year but two of those games were REALLY close affairs vs good opponents (South Cackalacky, Houston). We don’t expect them to challenge for a conference title but we’d be disappointed if they didn’t get to a bowl game.

ARRRRRRRR! Go Pirates!

Want more East Carolina football ?

WEBSITE

https://ecupirates.com/index.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://chat.eastcarolina.sportswar.com/message_board/ecubanter/

http://eastcarolina.247sports.com/Board/East-Carolina-Pirates-Message-Board-Forum-59438

https://eastcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/pillage-n-plunder.8/

NEWS

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/aac/east-carolina-university/

http://bonesville.net/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/151/east-carolina-pirates

Memphis Tigers 2022 College Football Preview

Memphis Tigers 2022 College Football Preview

July 8, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 6-6

ATS – 4-8

The Tigers ROARED to a 3-0 start after taking down SEC opponent Mississippi St in an exciting 31-29 victory. Things took a nasty turn to TURD TOWN after that as they dropped four of their next five contests, three of them by one score. Memphis earned their sixth win in the season finale by taking down Tulane (W 33-28) and achieved bowl eligibility. Sadly, their bowl game in paradise (Hawaii Bowl) was cancelled. The PANDEMIC OF THE VACCINATED claimed another victim.

Let’s check in with the program and see if they have what it takes to contend for an AAC title in 2022.

Memphis Tigers 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Tigers weren’t themselves last year and averaged 30.1 PPG (#5 AAC) which was their lowest output since 2013 when they could only cobble together 19.5 PPG. QB Seth Henigan had an excellent freshman (!) season (60%, 25-8 TD to INT) but he’ll need to navigate 2022 without all-Universe WR Calvin Austin (1,149, 15.5, 8 TD) and FREAKSHOW TE Sean Dykes (657, 7 TD). Some decent talent remains at WR and TE but we don’t see anyone with overwhelming talent on the roster. Time will tell. The RB room is LOADED and looks like the best in the conference. Memphis returns the 1-2 combo of Brandon Thomas and Rodrigues Clark who combined for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs LY and they get a yuuuuge addition in the explosive Jeyvon Ducker from Northern Illinois. Three starters return up front but they’ll miss RG Dylan Parham who’s off to the NFL. These guys are way more dangerous when the rushing attack clicks (197,280,187 YPG from 2017-2019; 136,145 L2Y) so there’s reason for optimism.

DEFENSE

Memphis was mediocre on defense LY (#95 FBS total defense, #91 scoring defense) and were HEINOUS when it came to getting off the field on 3rd downs (48%, #126 FBS). The Tigers return four of their top-five tacklers and look particularly strong in the secondary where they boast some legit playmakers in FS Quindell Johnson (104 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 11 PBU LY) and CB Greg Rubin who tallied an impossible 14 PBU in 2021. We’re not psyched about the front seven, particularly a DL that brings back just one starter, but at least there’s sack potential at DE with the return of Wardalis Ducksworth and Jaylon Allen (9 combined sacks LY). This is yet another AAC defense that has the look of “average”.

SPECIAL TEAMS

RUH ROH. The Tigers need to sort out the FGK situation as Joe Doyle and David Kemp combined to hit just 12/19 FG in 2021 (2-5 40+). It stinks to lose the great Calvin Austin at PR (27.0, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The schedule-maker gave them a bit of a breather as they avoid Cincinnati (!) and get to play Houston and UCF at home. They should be able to go 3-1 in non-conference play and only play five games ON THE HIGHWAY. There are four consecutive home contests from September 17 to October 7.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 3 – at Mississippi St

REVENGE IS A DISH BEST SERVED COLD and the Bulldogs will be in an ORNERY mood after snatching defeat from the JAWS OF VICTORY in Memphis LY.

Season Win Total

Over 7.5 +100

Under 7.5 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under

That number looks about right but we see more downside than upside with this squad.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Memphis is one TOUGH COOKIE to beat at home as they have a 46-8 (!) win-loss mark since 2014.

Former HC Mike Norvell led the Tigers to three consecutive AAC Championship Game appearances and they won it all in 2019 (beat Cincinnati 29-24).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Memphis has been a dangerous bunch for a long time but you have to wonder if they’re heading in the wrong direction. They escaped a losing season last year by the skin of their tiger claws and don’t have the talent edge over the competition like they did a few years ago. We’ll call for six to eight wins and a bowl appearance.

Go Tigers! 

Want more Memphis football ?

WEBSITE

https://gotigersgo.com/sports/football

FORUM

Free

http://csnbbs.com/forum-499.html

https://memphis.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-tigers-lair.6/

NEWS

http://www.commercialappeal.com/sports/tigers/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/235/memphis-tigers

SMU Mustangs 2022 College Football Preview

SMU Mustangs 2022 College Football Preview

July 8, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 8-4

ATS – 6-6

“Here we go again. Again.”    <Tugg Speedman> <Schorcher VI – Global Meltdown>

2019. SMU starts 8-0, loses three of last five games.

2020. SMU starts 5-0, loses three of last five games.

2021. Wait for it. SMU starts 7-0, loses four of last five games.

2022. It’ll be up to new head coach Rhett Lashlee, former OC of YOUR Miami Hurricanes, to figure out how to keep a talented bunch rolling for a full season.

SMU Mustangs 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Mustangs have been potent on offense for a number of years and they did serious damage in 2021 (38.4 PPG, #9 FBS). QB Tanner Mordecai developed into a legit star LY (68%, 39-12 TD to INT, 202 rush, 2 TD) and he should flourish under the guidance of Lashlee and friends. Mordecai will be without three of his top-four targets from LY’s squad but note that SMU added some talent via the transfer portal including former UNC wideout Beau Corrales. #1 RB Tre Siggers is back for duty (727, 9 TD) and they scooped up a highly-recruited specimen from ROLL TIDE (!) in Camar Wheaton. Three starters return on the offensive line and the addition of a pair of Power 5 transfers can only help the situation. SMU will move like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE once again.

DEFENSE

SMU was sneaky-good on defense last year and had their best performance since 2012 (!) when they were a member of Conference USA. They weren’t a brick wall, but they allowed 28 PPG, 3.7 YPC (#3 AAC) and 59% completions (#5 AAC). New DC Scott Symons did a good job with Liberty and he’s got seven returning starters and six of their top-nine tacklers to work with in 2022. We’re excited to report that their top-four sack producers are back in the mix including stud DT Elijah Chatman (10 TFL, 3 QBH, 2nd Team AAC). The secondary has loads of experience but the LB group might be a bit thin given the departure of two of the team’s top-three tacklers from 2021. This has the look of an average AAC stop unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

It’s a mixed bag. They lose ace PK Blake Mazza (12-15 FG LY) but boast one of the best KR in college football in Bryan Massey who booked two TDs in 2021 (34.3 avg on 20 returns) (!).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It sets up pretty well. They don’t have a killer non-conference game (at Maryland, TCU) and get Cincinnati and Houston at home.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 29 – at Tulsa

This road tilt is SANDWICHED between the yuuuge aforementioned home games (Bearcats, Cougars) that will go a long way towards deciding the AAC Championship Game participants.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 8

Over 7 -115

Under 7 -115

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

SMU has a decent shot of going 3-1 before conference play rolls around and they should be able to win four or five games in AAC action.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

The Mustangs have been much better at home (35-26, .574) than on the road (21-37, .362) over the L10Y. Note the excellent ATS record as home chalk over that time horizon (22-10, 69%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It should be another fun season in Dallas for Mustang fans. Ya, they’ve kinda cratered in late-season action recently, but the conference is there for the taking if they can avoid a late season TANK JOB. Win two of three vs the BIG ‘UNS (UCF, Cincinnati, Houston) and they’ll almost certainly find their way into the conference title game.

Pony Up, Dallas!

Want more SMU football ?

WEBSITE

https://smumustangs.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.ponyfans.com/phpBB3/viewforum.php?f=1

https://247sports.com/college/smu/Board/SMU-Fan-Football-Recruiting-Message-Board-Forum–105959/

https://smu.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-boulevard.10/

NEWS

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/smu-mustangs

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2567/smu-mustangs

Tulane Green Wave 2022 College Football Preview

Tulane Green Wave 2022 College Football Preview

July 7, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 2-10

ATS – 6-6

It didn’t start out badly as they gave Oklahoma all they could handle in Norman in the season opener (L40 -35) and then CREMATED something called Morgan St in week two. The wheels quickly came off the CHOO CHOO as the Green Wave lost the next eight games in a row. Tulane finished with a mark of 2-10 which was their worst showing since Willie Fritz took over in 2016 (4-8).

Tulane Green Wave 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Wave were pretty average across the board LY (#8 AAC total offense, #7 scoring offense) and weren’t particularly effective with the run or the pass. The ground game was very disappointing as they broke a streak of FIVE consecutive seasons with 200+ YPG (165, #5 AAC). We’re optimistic heading into 2022 as nine starters return including all of the key components. QB Michael Pratt is a good one (21-8 TD to INT, 58% LY) but needs to be more consistent and kept on his feet by the OL (Tulane 32 sacks allowed, #9 AAC). The RB room is loaded and returns #1 Tyjae Spears who’s poised to have a yuuuge season (863, 9 TD, 6.7 LY) and note that nine of Tulane’s top-ten in terms of receiving yards are back in the fold. The OL boasts four returning starters including veterans at C and LT. The Green Wave showed brief flashes of brilliance LY and we expect them to be much more potent in 2022.

DEFENSE

Tulane had their worst defensive showing of the Willie Fritz era and it was PURE FILTH by almost every measure. They were #102 in total defense (430 YPG), #114 in scoring defense (34.0 PPG) and they allowed 66% completions (2nd worst AAC). The good news is that they were effective in the PENETRATION DEPARTMENT for the 3rd time in four seasons and registered 34 sacks. Nine starters are back in New Orleans for another go including their top-four tacklers, top-two sack producers, and probably their best overall defensive player in LB Nick Anderson (#3 tackler, 7.5 TFL). They’ve also added some Power 5 transfers who should contribute. The Wave usually posts an average defense with good sack potential and that’s what we expect this year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The INTREPID Phil Steele ranked Tulane #103 in the FBS LY and we have low expectations for 2022 given that they’ll be breaking in a new P/PK combo and don’t appear to have much SPICE at KR/PR. Maybe new ST coordinator Robby Discher can make a difference?

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s mostly good news. The non-conference schedule is very manageable with the only tough one being a visit to face Kansas St. They’ve gotta deal with the three best teams in the AAC but have seven home games and NO back-to-back roadies.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-heinous is noted.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 7

Over 6 +100

Under 6 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

Tulane appears to be a much-improved bunch and the schedule sets up well.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Willie Fritz is a rock-solid 42-31-1 ATS with Tulane (58%) and an eye-popping 23-12 vs Vegas at home (66%). WHOA, NELLIE!

Tulane is 13-46 in away games L10Y (.220).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The Green Wave have been a scrappy team for the majority of Willie Fritz’s tenure and we expect the 2022 version to be very competitive in AAC play. There’s no reason to expect anything less than a bowl game. Let’s ROLL, GREEN WAVE!

Want more Tulane football ?

WEBSITE

https://tulanegreenwave.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://www.yogwf.com/viewforum.php?f=2&sid=efa00718d50b5eb39418c055015b0d4b

NEWS

https://www.nola.com/sports/tulane/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/schedule/_/id/2655/tulane-green-wave

South Florida Bulls 2022 College Football Preview

South Florida Bulls 2022 College Football Preview

July 7, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 2-10

ATS – 7-5

The Bulls sputtered, coughed, and wheezed their way to another ugly campaign and only managed to beat one FBS squad. Take a bow Temple. They were competitive in a small handful of losses against decent teams (BYU, Tulsa, Houston, UCF) so we suppose it wasn’t a total disaster. That brings their two-year record under Jeff Scott to a ghastly 3-18.

Let’s dig in and see if there’s reason for optimism heading into 2022.

USF Bulls 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The offense didn’t do much of anything LY (#102 FBS total offense, #100 scoring offense) and the main culprit was terrible play from the QB position (#124 passing efficiency, 6-12 TD to INT, 54%). We have good news to report as former Baylor Bear Gerry Bohanon rolls into town and is a great bet to win the starting gig. Bohanon did some good work with Baylor and has some impressive wins on his resume (Sooners, Texas, Ole Miss, Iowa St). The rushing attack wasn’t horrible LY and they bring back three talented RBs including Kelley Joiner (6.2). The WR group appears to be in great shape with the return of their top-three and note the addition of Khafre Brown, a highly-recruited specimen transferring in from North Carolina. Five starters return up front and they have good size. Yup, the offense should be WAYYY better in 2022.

DEFENSE

It’s been a HORROR SHOW on defense the L2Y and the Bulls allowed 7.0 yards-per-play in 2021 which ranked #122 in the FBS. They allowed 66% completions last year and were rolled for 200+ YPG on the ground for the fourth consecutive season. Veteran DC Bob Shoop is the new sheriff in town and he’s got nine starters and improved talent to work with in 2022. South Florida had enormous problems achieving PENETRATION LY and recorded just 9 sacks in 12G (dead LAST FBS sacks/game). Job #1 will be getting heat on the QB and they add a pair of talented DEs thru the transfer portal. Everyone’s back at LB including their top-two tacklers (Grier, Boyles), and an experienced secondary adds CB Aamaris Brown from Kansas St and Ray Thornton from Clemson. We expect to see significant improvement on this side of the football as well.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Things are in great shape as all the key pieces are back for duty. PK Spencer Shrader is one of the best in the AAC (11-13 FG, 35-35 XP LY) and the UNTOUCHABLE Brian Battie returned not one, not two, but THREE kickoffs to the CRIBBY HIZZIE JIZZY in 2021 whilst averaging 32.5 a pop.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The schedule will be a challenge from start to finish. They’ve got three nasty non-conference games (BYU, at Florida, at LUA-VUH) and play all the AAC big boys.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 18 – at Tulsa

This will be the Bulls’ 3rd road game in four weeks and they’ve got their SUPER BOWL on deck (home to UCF).

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 7

Over 4.5 +110

Under 4.5 -140

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

They’ll have to work to get to five wins but that feels like to the way to go in this market.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Jeff Scott has a win-loss record of 3-18 (0-11 away) but is a very respectable 11-9-1 ATS.

The Bulls have beaten just one FBS team (Temple) since October 2019 (!).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

We feel pretty good about the trajectory of the program as we approach press time. The Bulls bagged a solid veteran QB and should be much better on defense. Their special teams are excellent and you have to believe these guys are HUNGRY. A bowl bid isn’t an unreasonable expectation for the 2022 South Florida Bulls.

Let’s gooooo!

Want more South Florida football ?

WEBSITE

https://gousfbulls.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://www.thebullspen.com/forum/25-usf-south-florida-bulls-athletics/

https://247sports.com/college/south-florida/Board/South-Florida-Bulls-Message-Board-Forum-59416

https://usf.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-bullpen.8/

NEWS

http://www.thedailystampede.com/

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bulls/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/58/south-florida-bulls

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2022 College Football Preview

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2022 College Football Preview

July 6, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 8-5

The Golden Hurricane were slow off the mark and lost four of their first five games, and one of those defeats came at the hands of something known as UC Davis. They finished strong giving Cincinnati all they could handle (L 28-20) and ended up winning their final four contests. The season ended in fine fashion with a 30-17 win over Old Dominion in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

Tulsa did good things on offense LY (#34 FBS rush offense, #53 passing offense) but they would’ve been a lot more productive (26.4 PPG, #81) if not for the barrel-full of interceptions thrown by QB Davis Brin (18-16 TD to INT). We expect Brin to be much better in year two as the starter as his 411 (!) attempts LY should pay dividends. Three of their top-four WRs depart but note that Keylon Stokes is back in the mix and he led the team in receptions and receiving yards during the 2020 PLANDEMIC season. They’re very deep at RB and should be able to withstand the departure of 1,000-yard rusher Shamari Brooks. The only worry (and it’s a yuuuge one) is an inexperienced OL that returns just two starters, and recall that they lost their LT in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

DEFENSE

The Golden Hurricane have been pretty good recently and they’ve allowed fewer than 30 PPG in three of the last four campaigns (26.6 PPG LY, #5 AAC). Six starters are back for duty but they’ll be working with a new DC in 2022. Losing star DT Jaxon Player stings quite a bit (14 TFL, 7 QBH) but they should still be fine up front given the addition of a pair of Power 5 transfers, not to mention the return of leading sack man DE Anthony Goodlow (6). Leading tackler LB Justin Wright in back as well as three starters in the secondary. This still looks like a good group overall.

SPECIAL TEAMS

We like the look of things with the return of basically everyone of consequence, but note that the great PHIL STEELE had these guys ranked #116 on special teams LY, thanks mostly to allowing an impossible four (!) KO return TDs. PK Zack Long is a ROBOT (22/23 FG LY) and KR Anthony Watkins booked a TD in 2021.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Tulsa should be able to split their four non-conference games although that’s not a certainty. They miss UCF but have to play Memphis and Houston on the road in November.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 24th – at Ole Miss

It’s never easy taking on the FIGHTING KIFFINS and note that Tulsa has a yuuuge home game with Cincinnati on deck that opens up their AAC schedule.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 6

Over 6 -110

Under 6 -130

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

We’d be very surprised if this team didn’t achieve bowl eligibility.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Tulsa has the smallest undergraduate enrollment of any FBS football school.

HC Philip Montgomery boasts a fine 48-35-1 mark vs Vegas (58%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

The roster isn’t overwhelming but there are no glaring weaknesses other than a lack of experience on the offensive line that could cause problems. QB Davis Brin has a shot to blossom and the defense could be better than advertised. We’ll call for six or seven wins and think they’ll be in the mix to make the AAC title game heading into November.

Want more Tulsa football ?

WEBSITE

https://tulsahurricane.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://tulsa.forums.rivals.com/forums/tu-football.8/

NEWS

https://www.tulsaworld.com/sports/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/202/tulsa-golden-hurricane

Navy Midshipmen 2022 College Football Preview

Navy Midshipmen 2022 College Football Preview

July 6, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 4-8

ATS – 8-4

Anchors Aweigh, indeed.

Another Navy football season went for a visit to DAVY JONES’ LOCKER as they sputtered their way to a record of 4-8. Things got off to a rough start as they lost their first two games by a combined score of 72-10 and they had a mark of 1-6 after seven games. The MIDDIES kept battling tho and won three of their final five games including a yuuuuge win in the season finale over their hated rivals from West Point (W 17-13).

Three of the last four seasons have been pretty rough (3-10, 3-7, 4-8) with the only bright spot being an excellent 11-2 record in 2019. Let’s see how things look heading into 2022.

Navy Midshipmen 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

Things will not improve until they get their vaunted ground attack rolling. They’ve booked 226 and 178 YPG the last two seasons after averaging well over 300 YPG from 2015-2019. Navy needs to get dynamic QB play someway, somehow, and it’s unclear if Tai Lavatai or Xavier Arline can deliver the goods. Neither of those QBs are particularly explosive running the football. The HITS KEEP COMING when you consider that they lose their top-four RBs as well as #1 WR Mychal Cooper (19.9). Three starters return up front and they were a disappointing bunch LY (30 sacks, 3.9 YPC). We don’t have high hopes for the offense but they’ve added a bit more speed to the mix so we’ll see how things turn out.

DEFENSE

The defense performed reasonably well LY (349 YPG, #34 FBS) and they were particularly strong vs the run (130 YPG, #32). Defending the THROW GAME was an issue (#111 pass efficiency D) and they only tallied 16 sacks in 12G. Navy returns just five starters on this side of the football and they lose four of their top-five tacklers including superstar LB Diego Fagot. Thankfully, they still look pretty stout up front and boast a pair of experienced safeties. Replacing a special player like Fagot is going to be impossible and it would help immensely if they could find some kind of pass rush. Navy’s track record on defense is pretty good so there’s some hope.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy.

The MIDDIES bring back punter Riley Riethman along with PK Bijan Nichols who did a great job in 2021 (15-19 FG, 1-4 50+, 28-28 XP). KR Maquel Haywood is a TD WAITING TO HAPPEN (31.0, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Navy tangles with all three AAC big boys and two of those games are on the road in November (UCF, Cincinnati). Their final home game is on October 29th (!).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing too spooky is noted.

Season Win Total

Per BetOnline July 6

Over 4.5 +120

Under 4.5 -150

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

The schedule isn’t brutal like in 2021 but it’s still pretty tough. They’ve got two FREE SQUARES and have a 50/50 shot of bagging three or more wins in the other games. Tough call at this market price.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

HC Ken Niumatalolo is a rock solid 97-80-2 ATS (55%) and he’s EXTRA SPICY in the role of home underdog (14-8-1, 64%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Navy has fallen a clear notch below Army and Air Force and it’ll be interesting to see if they exceed expectations in 2022. We don’t think that the offense will be good enough to dictate how games play out (like Army) and they’ll do well to make a bowl game. Taking back the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy must be JOB #1 and the October 1st game at Air Force LOOMS LARGE in that regard. Go Navy!

Want more Navy football?

WEBSITE

https://navysports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/navy/Board/GoMidshipmen-103672/

NEWS

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy_sports/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2426/navy-midshipmen

Temple Owls 2022 College Football Preview

Temple Owls 2022 College Football Preview

July 5, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 3-9

ATS – 2-10

The Owls started out on a nice little HEEETER winning three of their first five games, and that included a nice SHOCK the WORLD moment when they took down Memphis as double-digit underdogs. The season went GLUG GLUG GLUG down the drain after that victory and they finished the season on a seven-game (!) skid. Talk about a nasty turn to TURD TOWN.

Next up on the Temple coaching carousel is something called Stan Drayton.

Let’s go!

Temple Owls 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Owls were brutal on offense LY and particularly horrible in the second half of year. They finished #125 in total offense (287 YPG) and #126 in scoring offense (16.3 PPG) and couldn’t do much on the ground or thru the air. Former Georgia Bulldog D’Wan Mathis was a disappointment in 2021 (59.5%, 6-4 TD to INT) but we suppose he’s young enough to improve. Edward Saydee is the only returning RB who booked more than 300Y in 2021 but the hope is that Texas A&M (!) transfer Darvon Hubbard can be a true #1 workhorse. The WR/TE group looks pretty uninspiring but maybe Michigan St transfer WR Ian Stewart can be a difference-maker? They only return two starters up front and need to replace their excellent center CJ Perez.

DEFENSE

Things weren’t much better on this side of the football in 2021 as the Owls allowed 37.5 PPG (#122 FBS) whilst having trouble stopping the run (#121) and defending the pass (#94 pass efficiency D). New DC DJ Eliot has seven returning starters to work with as well as a small handful of Power 5 transfers that should help the cause. LB Jordan Magee (#4 tackler, 6.5 TFL) and safety Alex Odom (#3 tackler) are decent holdovers from last year’s squad. We don’t have high hopes for the stop unit but feel pretty good about saying they’ll be better than the 2021 version. Finding a pass rush of some kind is a top priority.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The good news? Continuity across the board other than at punter. Bad news? They were pretty average LY and note that PK Rory Bell was close to a COIN TOSS (9/16 FG, 3-9 from 40+).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference schedule is very manageable but they draw the three toughest teams from the AAC (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston). They have seven home games so that doesn’t suck.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 12 – at Houston

This will be the Owls 4th road game since the beginning of October and their final road game on the schedule. It could be a LAY DOWN AND DIE spot depending on how the season is going. Not saying, just saying.

Season Win Total

Over 2.5 -155

Under 2.5 +125

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean – Over

Last season’s MEGALOCKS SEASON WIN TOTAL CLUB was treated to a “Temple Over 3 wins” selection that amazed and tortured peeps at the same time. All in the name of getting a ‘push’. Do we have the TEMERITY to take the ‘over’ once again? Well, we bring you the SISTERS OF THE VACCINE MAIMED AND STERILIZED on the schedule…..Lafayette, Rutgers, Duke, UMass, USF, Tulsa, Navy. We’ll make a final call during the summer.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Owls were outscored 299-59 (!) during last year’s season-ending seven-game losing streak.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

This looks like a painful season any way you cut it. The Owls will need a year or two to get their feet on the ground with the new coaching staff so it seems the best they can hope for is an upset or two along the way. In any event, HOOT HOOT, and go Temple!

Want more Temple football ?

WEBSITE

https://owlsports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/temple/Board/Temple-Owls-Message-Board-104514/

http://temple.247sports.com/Board/Temple-Owls-Message-Board-Forum-59459

https://temple.forums.rivals.com/forums/temple-football.10/

NEWS

http://temple-news.com/category/sports/football/

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/temple/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/218/temple-owls