Kansas Jayhawks 2022 College Football Preview

Kansas Jayhawks 2022 College Football Preview

July 25, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 2-10

ATS – 4-8

Year one of the Lance Leipold era went pretty much as expected as they only managed to win two games whilst suffering an eight-game losing streak along the way. The good news is that they played much better down the stretch and provided us with one of the biggest upsets of the college football season when they took down Texas (!) on the road in dramatic OT fashion (W 57-56).

Let’s check in with the program and see if there’s potential to KICK IT UP A NOTCH in 2022.

Kansas Jayhawks 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The offense struggled as anticipated LY as they ended the year 2nd last in the Big 12 in rushing offense (139 YPG) and dead last in passing offense (185 YPG). That was a notable improvement over the 2020 numbers (!) and we expect another move forward in 2022. Sophomore QB Jalon Daniels didn’t look out of place LY and note that Kansas scored 57,28,28 L3G of 2021 when he was the starter. World-class sprinter ** QB Jason Bean is more run, less pass, but is a decent back-up. The Jayhawks don’t appear to have a gamebreaker at WR or TE but pretty much everyone returns this season. Kansas has a deep RB group that returns #1 Devin Neal (707, 8 TD LY) and watch out for Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas who led the Golden Gophers in rushing LY (824, 5.0). The OL has plenty of experience and legit Big 12 players at center and LT.

** fact check might be true

DEFENSE

PURE FILTH is a good way to sum up the 2021 stop unit as the Jayhawks ranked #126 in the FBS in total defense (487 YPG), #129 (!) in run defense (250 YPG), and managed just 15 sacks (#120). There wasn’t much to work with LY and they’ll certainly improve given the return of eight starters and the addition of a number of talented transfers. The DL is more experienced than LY but they’ll miss the pass rush ability of DE Kyron Johnson who’s off to the NFL ***. Adding DE Lonnie Phelps from Miami Ohio (9.5 sacks LY) was a clutch scoop. The LB unit looks ok with #2 tackler MLB Rich Miller back in the mix along with former UCF Knight Eriq Gilyard, and three starters are back in the secondary including 2nd Team Big 12 honoree and leading tackler safety Kenny Logan. ROME wasn’t built in a day, but we like the direction that the defense is headed, and really like the infusion of transfer portal talent.

*** yup, KU had a DL taken in the NFL draft…..win a bar bet with that TRIVIA BOMB

SPECIAL TEAMS

The majority of the key elements are back for duty but they’ll need better performance from the kicking game. KR Kenny Logan has shown to be a dangerous item (27.9 LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They’ve got a pair of winnable non-conference dates (Tennessee Tech, Duke) and one killer (at Houston). There are four home games in the first half and just a pair in the second half of the season.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous is noted.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 25

Over 2.5 -130

Under 2.5 +110

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

Pencil in a week one victory, and the Duke game is a toss-up. They’re capable of winning a pair of Big 12 games.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Kansas is an impossibly-horrific 6-83 in Big 12 action over the L10Y.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

GREEN SHOOTS, yo. That’s what we saw near the end of the 2021 season. HC Lance Leipold is one of our favorites and he’s building this program up brick by brick. They’ve still got a long way to go but we’ll call for three or four wins and a momentum-building season heading into 2023. 

Rock Chalk, Jayhawk!

Want more Kansas football ?

WEBSITE

https://kuathletics.com/sports/football/

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/kansas/Board/Gridiron-Talk-103723/

https://kansas.forums.rivals.com/forums/memorial-stadium-slant-suite.22/

NEWS

http://www2.kusports.com/news/football/

https://www.rockchalktalk.com/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2305/kansas-jayhawks

 

TCU Horned Frogs 2022 College Football Preview

TCU Horned Frogs 2022 College Football Preview

July 25, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 5-7

ATS – 2-9-1

Things seemed to be rolling along in a decent fashion after the win over Texas Tech gave them a mark of 3-2, but they lost the next three games and pretty much cemented their fate of missing out on a bowl game. On a positive note, they were one of only two teams to take down the eventual Big 12 champs from Baylor (W 30-28). Trivia nugget, yo.

It’ll be strange seeing the Horned Frogs take the field in a season opener without legendary HC Gary Patterson but TCU made a strong hire in Sonny Dykes. Let’s go!

TCU Horned Frogs 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Horned Frogs left a lot of points on the table LY (28.7 PPG, #7 Big 12) considering that they ranked #29 in the FBS in rushing offense, #11 in passing efficiency, and #11 in 3rd down conversions (46%). TCU returns 10 starters on offense including crafty veteran QB Max Duggan and talented redshirt freshman QB Chandler Morris. A deep WR group should thrive in Dykes’ offense and they’ve got a legit star in Quentin Johnston to lead the way (19.2, 6 TD LY). Two of the top-three RBs return including the explosive Kendre Miller (7.5, 7 TD) and the room was bolstered by transfer portal additions. The OL features over 100 career starts and adds veteran Alan Ali from SMU. We anticipate TCU easily surpassing the 30 PPG mark in 2022.

DEFENSE

Yup, that was disgusting. The Horned Frogs were brutal on defense LY as they were #9 in the Big 12 in run defense as well as pass efficiency defense (thanks, Kansas!) and they only managed to book a paltry 15 sacks (#120 FBS). Eight starters are back in the fold and TCU made a good move by hiring former Tulsa DC Joe Gillespie who did fine work with the Golden Hurricane, and recall that Gillespie gave Dykes and his SMU Mustangs a hard time in AAC battles. There’s a small core of good players to build around in DE Dylan Horton (9 TFL, 4 QH LY), leading tackler LB Dee Winters, and 1st Team Big 12 member CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, and they’ll be supplemented by some talented transfer portal bodies. Look for much better numbers on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This appears to be one of the best special teams groups in the Big 12 as they feature a solid kicking game in punter Jordy Sandy (40.5 net LY) and PK Griffin Kell (14-18 FG, 42-42 XP) along with dangerous PR/KR Derius Davis (KR TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – TCU has a legit shot at a 3-0 start before they open Big 12 play by hosting the mighty Sooners. The final three-game stretch is nasty (at Texas, at Baylor, Iowa St).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 8th – at Kansas

SANDWICH alert, yo.

This game follows two emotional ones (at SMU – Dykes former team, Oklahoma) and precedes a date with Oklahoma St. We’ll likely avoid laying the road chalk in this spot.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 25

Over 6.5 -125

Under 6.5 -105

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

They probably need to win four or five Big 12 contests to hit the over. We think they GIT ER DONE.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

TCU hasn’t had a winning mark ATS in any FULL season since 2015. <6-3-1 during 2020 CASEDEMIC season>

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Yes, guy.

TCU has the look of a team that can make big strides in 2022. The offense will be able to keep up with almost anyone and they just need an “average” year from the stop unit to give them a chance to SHOCK the WORLD. Logical longshot to upset the APPLE CART and make the Big 12 Championship Game. Let’s do ittttt!

Want more TCU football ?

WEBSITE

https://gofrogs.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://forum.killerfrogs.com/index.php?forums/-/list

http://tcu.247sports.com/Board/TCU-Horned-Frogs-Message-Board-Forum-101445

NEWS

http://www.frogsowar.com/

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tcu-horned-frogs/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2628/tcu-horned-frogs

 

West Virginia Mountaineers 2022 College Football Preview

West Virginia Mountaineers 2022 College Football Preview

Created July 24, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 6-7

ATS – 6-7

It was another mediocre season for the Mountaineers as they scratched and clawed their way to a mark of 6-7. There were a couple of pleasant moments along the way as they managed to take down Iowa St and Texas, but there wasn’t much that fans could get excited about.

HC Neal Brown probably has one more shot to get this program headed in the right direction. Will year four be the charm? Let’s find out.

West Virginia Mountaineers 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

West Virginia didn’t get much done on offense LY (#8 Big 12 total offense, #9 scoring offense) and were putrid when it came to moving the ball on the ground for the third year in a row (123 YPG, dead last Big 12). There’s lots of changes to report and we like what we see, yo. The Mountaineers made a yuuuge scoop in the transfer portal by snagging former Georgia Bulldog and USC Trojan (!) QB JT Daniels, and how about hiring OC Graham Harrell who worked with Daniels at USC? They’ll go with a committee at RB given the departure of 1,000-yard rusher Leddie Brown and those backs will enjoy making tracks behind a good-looking OL that returns five starters (!) and over 100 career starts. Two of the top-three WRs are back for duty (Ford-Wheaton, James) and they should both shine in Harrel’s offense. Look for much improved numbers on offense.

DEFENSE

The defense was sound LY as they allowed just 350 YPG (#37 FBS) and 23.8 PPG (#45). The alarm bells at MEGALOCKS HQ are going RINGY DINGY DINGY as we inform you that the Mountaineers lose their top-five tacklers and return just four starters to the stop unit. The good news is that they look fine at DL with the return of all-Universe tackle Dante Stills (15 TFL, 6 QBH LY) and DE Taijh Alston (5 sacks, 11 TFL) but the LB and DB groups look really sketchy, and note that the secondary doesn’t feature a single returning starter. We expect the defense to fall into the bottom-half of the Big 12 in most statistical categories.

SPECIAL TEAMS

West Virginia will need to find replacements for almost all of their key pieces other than PK Casey Legg who did a good job in 2021 (19/23 FG, 4-7 40+; 35-35 XP).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference schedule contains a pair of nasty road games (Pitt, Hokies) and November won’t be an easy month to navigate as they must face Oklahoma (H), Oklahoma St (A), and Iowa St (A).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing heinous is noted.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 24

Over 5.5 +105

Under 5.5 -135

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

This looks a lot like a five or six win team, and that makes the season win total market a coin toss at this price.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

West Virginia has been a MONEY BURNER over the L10Y posting an ATS record of 54-69-1(44%). Backing the Mountaineers in Big 12 play has not been a great idea over that time horizon (40-48-1, 45%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

If you value offense more than defense, it’s likely that you feel pretty good about West Virginia exceeding expectations and making a bowl appearance. If the reverse is true, you are really worried about the defense and see them finishing near the bottom of the conference along with Kansas. We’re reluctantly positioned in the 2nd camp and think that they’ll fall just short of bowl eligibility.  

Want more West Virginia football ?

WEBSITE

https://wvusports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/west-virginia/Board/Football-103745/

https://westvirginia.forums.rivals.com/forums/game-day-discussion.22/

https://247sports.com/college/west-virginia/Board/West-Virginia-Mountaineers-Message-Board-Forum-Blog-58/

NEWS

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/Sports/WVU

http://www.wvillustrated.com/wvu-football

http://www.smokingmusket.com/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/277/west-virginia-mountaineers

 

Texas Tech Red Raiders 2022 College Football Preview

Texas Tech Red Raiders 2022 College Football Preview

Created, July 24 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 7-6

The Red Raiders got off to a decent start (5-2) and looked to be gaining momentum before they suffered a tough loss to Kansas St (L 25-24). They rebounded nicely later in the year by taking down Iowa St (W 41-38) but proved that they still have a lot of work to do by allowing 122 points (!) in two games vs Texas and Oklahoma. Texas Tech gets full marks for their BEATDOWN of Mississippi St in the Liberty Bowl (W 34-7) and roll into 2022 with some momentum, as well as a new head coach in Joey McGuire. Let’s go!

Texas Tech Red Raiders 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

Three QBs got significant work in for the Red Raiders LY and two of those men are back in mix. Former Oregon Duck Tyler Shough was decent in limited action in his first season with the Red Raiders and is the likely starter heading into 2022. Donovan Smith is also an option as is highly-recruited specimen Behren Morton. Texas Tech will be much more potent in the THROW GAME with former Western Kentucky OC (!) Zach Kittley at the controls but they’ll be working without three of the four top targets from LY. There’s some talent at WR and note that they bagged a TE with yuuuge potential in former Texas A&M Aggie Baylor Cupp. The OL should be just fine after landing a boatload of transfers and the Red Raiders boast over 120 career starts up front. Oh, and the 1-2 combo at RB is rock solid (Brooks, Thompson) and they combined for 17 rushing TDs in 2021. These guys will be good on offense and LOOK OUT if a legit gamebreaker (or two) emerges at WR.

DEFENSE

The Red Raiders weren’t that bad vs the run LY (137 YPG, #40 FBS) but were a HOT MESS when it came to defending the pass (#108 pass efficiency D, 29-11 TD to INT, 66%). They also weren’t exactly MASTERS OF PENETRATION (20 sacks, #7 Big 12) and it’s been a long time since these guys had a legit pass rush. Texas Tech loses their top-three tacklers and don’t have much depth to speak of, but there are reasons for optimism. DE Tyree Wilson can get heat on the QB (7 sacks, 13.5 TFL LY), the secondary features two really good players in safety Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (10 PBU, 3 INT LY) and CB Rayshad Williams (10 PBU), and their new DC Tim DeRuyter was an excellent veteran hire. It’ll be a bumpy ride but not a complete disaster.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Texas Tech moves on without ace PK Jonathan Garibay (15/16 FG LY) but are thrilled to be featuring one of the best punters in college football in Austin McNamara (48.2, 44.0 net!). They could use some OOMPH in the return game.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference assignments include a pair of tough ones (Houston, at NC St) but they get Texas and Oklahoma at home and only have five road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing overly-spooky is noted.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 24

Over 5.5 -110

Under 5.5 -120

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

That looks about right. We give them a 50/50 shot to make a bowl game.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Texas Tech hasn’t tallied more than seven wins since 2013.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Texas Tech made a very interesting hire in Joey McGuire and early reports are that the team has a lot more enthusiasm and energy. They also made a pair of excellent choices for OC and DC. The offense is going to give teams trouble but there’s work to be done from a defensive standpoint. It wouldn’t surprise us to see them get to a bowl game but we think they’re a year away from being really dangerous. 

Want more Texas Tech football ?

WEBSITE

https://texastech.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/texas-tech/Board/FOOTBALL-102951/

https://texastech.forums.rivals.com/forums/inside-the-double-t.20/

NEWS

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-tech-red-raiders/

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2641/texas-tech-red-raiders

 

Iowa St Cyclones 2022 College Football Preview

Iowa St Cyclones 2022 College Football Preview

July 24, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 5-8

The Cyclones were hyped up BIGLY before the season, and rightly so given the talent on the roster. Sadly, they ended up losing four conference games including to West Virginia and Texas Tech (!). Iowa St gave Clemson a good battle in the Cheez-It Bowl but ended up falling by a count of 20-13. Thankfully, that was a 999 STAR MEGALOCKS SAFE AND EFFECTIVE BOWL LOCK winner.

Did Iowa St miss their window of opportunity or can they still be a threat to win the Big 12?

Iowa St Cyclones 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Cyclones weren’t nearly as potent on the ground as you would have thought LY (161 YPG, #7 Big 12), particularly when they had the great Breece Hall at RB (1,472, 20 TD). They led the Big 12 in passing offense (!) but the bad news is that they lose their all-time leading passer in QB Brock Purdy and the majority of the THROW GAME targets including a devastating TE duo. Back-up Hunter Dekkers will lead the way in 2022 and while he appears to have all the tools note that he’s only thrown 43 career passes. There’s a major reload at WR/TE but at least they can feature a legit #1 WR in Xavier Hutchinson (987, 5 TD LY). Losing Hall is a massive blow and the leading returning rusher booked a mere 174Y in 2021. Unproven talent will have to emerge. Three starters return to the OL and Matt Campbell and friends usually do a good job with the BIG ‘UNS. Iowa St will suffer a drop in production this season but it’s impossible to know the extent of said drop until we see how all the pieces fit together.

DEFENSE

Iowa St has put one of the best defenses in the conference on the field in each of the last five seasons (#2 total defense LY, #3 scoring D) but there are yuuuge changes ahead in 2022. Only three (!) starters return on this side of the football and they lose their top-four tacklers. The only thing we know for sure is that AA DE Will McDonald is an elite talent who will be playing on Sundays (11.5 sacks LY). They appear to have good size up front but they’ll need to find another pass rushing threat to balance out what McDonald brings to the table. There are only two returning starters in the back seven so it’ll be up to their fine DC Jon Heacock to work some magic. We project ‘average’ overall performance from the stop unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

RUH ROH. The Clones bring back PR/KR Jaylin Noel (6.1, 26.0 LY) but need to reload at punter and PK. They’ll especially miss Andrew Mevis who hit 20/23 FG attempts in 2021.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They’ve only got one tough non-conference tilt (at Iowa), play just five true road games, and don’t have to deal with back-to-back road games. Their first Big 12 match-up will be a great measuring stick (Baylor).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 5 – West Virginia

The Mountaineers won’t be anything special but this contest comes after games with Texas and Oklahoma and right before their battle with Oklahoma St.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 24

Over 6.5 -125

Under 6.5 -105

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

The roster isn’t OOZING with talent but they could certainly find a way to win seven games.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The INTREPID Phil Steele provides us with quite the gem. Iowa St has lost by more than 14 points just twice (!) in the last 64 games.

HC Matt Campbell is a JUICY 9-3-1 ATS (75%) as a home underdog with the Cyclones and a very impressive 32-21-2 (60%) in Big 12 play.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It all comes down to a simple question. Can these guys stay competitive amidst a massive retooling project? You know that they’ll play hard and be very well coached, but we’ll be very surprised if they’re in the Big 12 Championship Game discussion come November. It’s pure FOLLY to underestimate the ability of Matt Campbell to COACH EM UP so we’ll call for six or seven wins and a bowl appearance. 

Want more Iowa St football ?

WEBSITE

https://cyclones.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://cyclonefanatic.com/forum/forums/football.9/

https://iowastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/isu-confidential-2-0.8/

http://iowastate.247sports.com/Board/Iowa-State-Cyclones-Message-Board-Forum-101486

NEWS

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/sports/

http://www.widerightnattylite.com/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/66/iowa-state-cyclones

 

Oklahoma St Cowboys 2022 College Football Preview

Oklahoma St Cowboys 2022 College Football Preview

July 23, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 10-4

“It would kill some men to come this close to your dream and not touch it.” <Ray Kinsella>  <Field of Dreams>

The Pokes started the season by winning six straight games before losing a tough one at Iowa St (L 24-21). They won their next four contests by a whopping combined margin of 165-23 (!!) and then punched their ticket to the Big 12 Championship with a thrilling 37-33 victory over the Sooners. Oklahoma St gave it their all in the big game but fell LITERALLY a yard short of beating Baylor (L 21-16). The season ended on a strong note with a yuuuge comeback win over Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl (W 37-35) and they finished with an excellent record of 12-2.

Oklahoma St Cowboys 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

This wasn’t YO MOMMA’S Oklahoma St offense LY as they had to grind for everything they got (#8 Big 12 yards per play). Veteran QB Spencer Sanders returns to lead the attack in 2022 and he’s a talented dual-threat (2,839 yards passing, 668 rushing) who’s only weakness still appears to be the dreaded turnover bug (20-12 TD to INT LY, 50-31 career). Losing 1,000-yard WR Tay Martin certainly stings but everyone else is back and note that they don’t call this program WR UNIVERSITY ** for nothing. There’s a good chance they’ll find a way to develop a #1 stud. Losing 1,200-yard RB Jaylen Warren is a bigger concern but they’ll be able to piece together a decent rotation given the bodies they have on board including promising true freshman Ollie Gordon. The OL is less experienced than LY but should be fine even with the probable season-ending injury to Cole Birmingham. The Pokes allowed just 17 sacks LY (#11 FBS SA / game) and it’s probably gonna be tough to repeat that excellent performance. Mike Gundy always finds a way to make the offense work but it doesn’t appear that there are too many gamebreakers on offense as we approach press time.

** fact check sorta true

DEFENSE

Oklahoma St was crazy good on defense LY as they allowed a mere 18 PPG (#9 FBS) and 88 YPG on the ground (#5 FBS), all whilst tallying an impossible 56 (!) sacks (ROLL TIDE, 57). There’s gonna be a significant drop in performance this year as they lose their top-four tacklers along with ace DC Jim Knowles. They were a veteran group LY and that won’t be the case in 2022. Thankfully, the DL still appears to be in fine shape with the return of DEs Collin Oliver and Brock Martin (combined 20.5 sacks LY) and they’ve got good size inside. Only one starter returns in the back seven in safety Jason Taylor and we worry about the Cowboys being able to handle the more potent offenses on the schedule. They’ll still be an above-average Big 12 bunch but the ceiling is relatively low.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Pokes are in great shape with everyone back for battle including their fine PK Tanner Brown (17-21 FG, 36-36 XP LY) and dangerous PR/KR Brennan Pressley (KR TD in 2021, 32.7).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It looks pretty good. A 3-0 start is essentially a foregone conclusion and then they get a bye week before conference play begins with a revenge game at Baylor. They face Oklahoma and Baylor ON THE HIGHWAY but get Texas at home. The tough Big 12 games are well spread out.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 15 – at TCU

This battle takes place before the Cowboys’ home game with Texas and we’re sure that TCU will be looking to avenge LY’s epic slaughter in which they allowed a 63-BURGER in a 46-point loss.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 23

Over 8 -125

Under 8 -105

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Under

The schedule isn’t that tough but nine wins feels like a stretch.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

MIKE GUNDY MAN CRUSH is still in FULL EFFECT for college football prognosticators as he went 10-4 ATS LY bringing his mark over the L10Y to an incredible 73-52-4 vs the spread (58.4%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Many a fortune has been lost by underestimating the Cowboys but we just don’t view this team as Championship material. The offense will be fine, but nothing special, and the internal alarm bells are going RINGY DINGY DINGY when we think about the defense. We’ll forecast seven or eight wins and another bowl appearance for one of the most underrated programs in college football. 

Want more Oklahoma St football ?

WEBSITE

https://okstate.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma-state/Board/Cowboy-Corner-103592/

https://www.orangepower.com/forum/osu-sports-forum.4/

https://oklahomastate.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-corral.28/

NEWS

http://www.pistolsfiringblog.com/category/football/

https://www.cowboysrideforfree.com/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-state-cowboys

 

Kansas St Wildcats 2022 College Football Preview

Kansas St Wildcats 2022 College Football Preview

Created July 23, 2021

2021 Recap

Record – 8-5

ATS – 8-5

The Wildcats exceeded our expectations and managed to cobble together eight wins during the 2021 campaign, and while they didn’t manage to bag a “signature” win, you can definitely sense that the program is on the right track since Chris Klieman took over as HC in 2019.

Could these guys be a DARK HORSE in a competitive Big 12 this year? Let’s take a look.

Kansas St Wildcats 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

Kansas St has been mediocre on offense for a number of years (#8 Big 12 scoring offense LY, #9 total offense) but things could get a whole lot SPICIER in 2022. The Wildcats made a nice QB pickup in the transfer portal by snagging former CORN signal-caller Adrian Martinez who somehow has eligibility left after playing with the Huskers since 2004 **. Martinez is a frustratingly inconsistent specimen but he’s also a legit and dynamic dual-threat. RB Deuce Vaughn is one of the best players in the Big 12 (1,404, 6.0, 18 TD; 49! receptions LY) and they’ve got a legit 1-2 tandem at WR (Brooks, Knowles). The OL is less-experienced but they’re anchored by star LT Cooper Beebe. If Martinez can find a way to limit turnovers and stay out of the INFIRMARY there’s no reason why the Cats can’t have their best offensive showing since 2017 (32.3 PPG).

** needs fact check

DEFENSE

The Cats made great strides on defense LY (21 PPG from 32 PPG in 2020) and were particularly nasty vs the run (129 YPG, #31 FBS). They’ve allowed 68% (!) completions two years in a row so they’ve gotta clean that mess up. Every level of the defense looks good heading into 2022, particularly a experienced DL that features elite pass-rushing demon Felix Anudike-Uzomah (11 sacks LY). Leading tackler Daniel Green (16 TFL) is back at LB and the secondary brings back three starters including a potent CB duo. We expect a very good to excellent performance from the defense this year.

SPECIAL TEAMS

KR Mailk Knowles is a devastating threat (2 TD LY) but they’ll need to get better results from PK Chris Tennant (5-8 FG LY). Recall that the Wildcats always seem to have strong special teams groups.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Kansas St should almost certainly get off to a 3-0 start before things get HOT and HEAVY in week four when they travel to face Oklahoma. They’ve only got 5 true road games and should be able to finish with a pair of DUBS (at West Virginia, Kansas).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 17 – at Tulane

This game precedes the aforementioned yuuuge match-up with the Sooners and Tulane almost SHOCKED the WORLD last year vs Oklahoma (L 40-35).

Season Win Total

Over 6.5 -180

Under 6.5 +150

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean: Over

78 of our 89 models have the Cats winning seven games or more.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Kansas St has been CRYPONITE to Oklahoma over the L10Y winning three times in Norman since 2012. Not an easy feat, yo.

HC Chris Klieman has been great ATS so far with the Wildcats (23-13, 64%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Hmm. This has the look of a dangerous team with no significant weakness. All three phases of the game should be TOIT like TIGER and you know they’ll be well-coached. The road schedule looks rough (Oklahoma, Iowa St, Baylor) but we still think they’re a LIVE LONGSHOT to weasel their way into the title conversation. Let’s do itttttt!

Want more Kansas St football ?

WEBSITE

https://www.kstatesports.com/sports/football

FORUM

http://goemaw.com/forum/index.php?board=3.0

https://kansasstate.forums.rivals.com/

NEWS

http://www.bringonthecats.com/

http://themercury.com/k_state_sports/football/

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/kansas-state/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2306/kansas-state-wildcats

 

Texas Longhorns 2022 College Football Preview

Texas Longhorns 2022 College Football Preview

July 23, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 5-7

ATS – 5-7

We thought that only Charlie Strong could lead the way to such a DEBACLE but we were wrong. Year one of the Steve Sarkisian experiment was pretty gross as the Longhorns finished 5-7 and even managed to lose six (!) consecutive games along the way. On the plus side, they were very competitive with Oklahoma and Oklahoma St (and Baylor) and could have easily picked up a win or two in those battles. Let’s hope for better things in 2022.

Texas Longhorns 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

SCORING the FOOTBALL wasn’t an issue last season as HOOK ‘EM scored an impressive 35.3 PPG (#18 FBS) and displayed a very balanced attack (199 YPG rush, 225 pass). GET CHO POPCONE and settle in for 2022 as the Longhorns appear to have some of the most explosive RB/WR weaponry in all of college football. The deadly Bijan Robinson is a legit Heisman contender (1,127, 5.8, 11 TD; 26 receptions LY) and the depth behind him is impressive. The WR group is ridiculously-loaded given the return of Xavier Worthy (981,15.8,12 TD) who just ripped Oklahoma apart for another yuuuge gainer as we were typing, #2 WR Jordan Whittington, and the addition of all-MEGALOCKS TEAM member Isaiah Neyor who dominated LY at Wyoming (878, 20.0!, 12 TD). They’ll be fine up front with the experience of 70+ starts and the addition of a pair of star recruits, so the only question on offense appears to be QB. Yup, that’s a big one. Back-up Hudson Card is back in the mix but the Longhorns need Ohio St transfer Quinn Ewers to step right in give them (at a minimum) above-average QB play. We’ll cautiously call for good things given the surrounding talent and Sarkisian’s coaching and play-calling ability.

DEFENSE

Texas was HOT GARBAGE on defense LY and couldn’t do much of anything outside of quitting in some games. They allowed 202 (!) YPG on the ground (#114 FBS), 68% competions (#125 FBS) and booked a mere 20 sacks (#101). Seven starters are back on this side of the football (is that a good thing?) and they’ve got a few good pieces to work with in 2022. NT Keondre Coburn is a legit space-eater up front and the DL looks like a solid bet to improve. #1 tackler DeMarvion Overshown and James Madison transfer Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey are legit LBs, but we still get the feeling that the secondary has a lot of work to do. Adding former Ohio St Buckeye CB Ryan Watts won’t hurt but it seems as tho the Longhorns will need to find a way to get a LOT more heat on the QB if they wanna make significant strides on defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS

RUH ROH. The kicking game could be a problem area as they lose their excellent PK AND punter (!) Cameron Dicker (13-15 FG, 43.6 net LY). Primary KR/PR D’Shawn Jamison did a decent job LY.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – Can’t wait for week two when ROLL TIDE comes to town. Book that BAD BOY as a loss but every other game is winnable. Note that they have just four (!) true road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 1 – West Virginia

This is the last of a three-game stretch of relative CUPCAKES and it precedes the date with hated rival Oklahoma.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 24

Over 8.5 -115

Under 8.5 -115

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

WOW. That’s a sharp number. Part of us wants to go ‘over’ but the more rational part of us remembers that Texas has won 9+ games just once since 2012 (!).

MEGAmazing Tidbit

HC Steve Sarkisian has an impressive 21-13 ATS mark (62%) as home chalk over his career (Washington, USC, Texas) but he’s struggled in the role of road dog (9-18, 33%).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

We’ve got high hopes for these guys despite the sizeable question marks at QB and in the back seven on defense. The offense could be LIGHTS OUT and carry the team a long way. Circle the games in your PHIL STEELE mag from October 8-22 as that stretch will likely determine whether or not they get a spot in the Big 12 title game. Call us crazy, but we think Texas is the best risk/reward pick for winning the conference. FUTURES CLUB, stay tuned!

HOOK ‘EM, yo.  

Want more Longhorns football ?

WEBSITE

http://texassports.com/?path=football

FORUM

http://www.hornsports.com/forums/forum/14-the-burnt-orange-board/

https://texas.forums.rivals.com/forums/longhorn-sports.24/

http://www.hornfans.com/forums/football/

http://insidetexas.com/forums/forums/it-members-only.2/

NEWS

http://www.burntorangenation.com/

http://www.hookem.com/bevo-beat/

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/texas-longhorns

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/251/texas-longhorns

 

Baylor Bears 2022 College Football Preview

Baylor Bears 2022 College Football Preview

July 22, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 10-4

CHAMPS!

The Bears took the Big 12 by storm and rolled to a championship season in year two of the Dave Aranda experience. They found their way into the title game by virtue of some close shaves down the stretch and got SWEET REVENGE on Oklahoma St (W 21-16). That was a fun season for Bears fans and a stark improvement over the 2-7 record posted during the 2020 SCAMDEMIC campaign.

Does Baylor have the MINERALS to go back-to-back? Let’s dig in.

Baylor Bears 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Bears were a balanced bunch on offense LY (219 YPG rush, #1 Big 12; 203 YPG pass, #8 Big 12) but it was obviously the ground game that pushed them to a championship. The offensive line was elite LY (5.4 YPC, #2 Big 12, #2 Big 12 sacks allowed per game) and they still look like one of the best fronts in college football. They’ll have to be great again as the Bears lose their top-two RBs including Abram Smith who lit defenses up for over 1,600 (!) yards and 12 TD on the ground in 2021. It’ll probably be a committee approach at RB this year and it’s unclear if they have any elite bodies in the unit. QB Blake Shapen takes over the full time starting duties and looked solid in limited action LY (72%, 5-0 TD to INT). Shapen will have to work some magic as the Bears lose their top-three WRs and don’t return a single wideout that posted more than 100 receiving yards with Baylor LY. We have doubts about the RB/WR situation but they’ve got the key components nailed down in our estimation (QB/OL).

DEFENSE

Baylor was fantastic on defense LY as they yielded a mere 18.3 PPG (#2 Big 12), 346 YPG (#4 Big 12), whilst sacking opposing QBs a whopping 44 times (#5 FBS!). They’ll be challenged BIGLY to come close to that performance as they return six starters on defense whilst losing a pair of stars in LB Terrel Bernard and Big 12 DPOY (!) DB Jalen Pitre who was taken in round two of the NFL draft. The DL looks REALLY good with the return of an elite space-eater in Siaki Ika and the addition of former Tulsa standout Jaxon Player. We’re not thrilled with the on-paper talent of the back-seven and think it will be impossible to duplicate the success the pass D displayed in 2021 (13-19 TD to INT, #26 FBS pass efficiency defense). We believe HC Dave Aranda and friends can have this defense perform better than expected but it’s clearly down a notch from the 2021 stop unit.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The kicking game is in really good shape with the return of PK Isaiah Hankins (14-20 FG LY) and punter Issac Power (41.7 net). The bad news is that they need to replace their dangerous PR/KR Trestan Ebner.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The Bears will only break a sweat in one non-conference game (at BYU) but have to go on the road to face Oklahoma, Iowa St and Texas. WHOA, NELLIE.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 5 – at Oklahoma

This will be Baylor’s third road tilt in four weeks and the Sooners will be pumped to avenge last season’s 13-point loss.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 22

Over 7.5 -150

Under  7.5 +120

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

That looks about right. This squad appears to have some holes but seven to eight wins is the most likely outcome.

MEGAmazing Tidbit

It would surprise a lot of folks to know how successful Baylor has been over the L10Y. They’ve posted a record of 80-47 (.630) whilst being extra SPICY on their home field (45-16, .738).

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

It’s hard to underestimate the Bears after what they did last season but this roster doesn’t have the look of a Big 12 champ. The offense is gonna have to step up this year and we’re not convinced that the RB/WR are skilled enough for the challenge. They’ll be fine on the defensive side of the ball but not as impenetrable as last year’s unit. And that road schedule is a killer. Let’s call for seven or eight wins. Sic ‘Em!

Want more Baylor Bears football ?

WEBSITE

https://baylorbears.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://sicem365.com/forums/2

https://baylor.forums.rivals.com/forums/on-the-brazos.8/

NEWS

https://sicem365.com/baylor-football

https://www.wacotrib.com/sports/

https://www.ourdailybears.com/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/239/baylor-bears

 

Oklahoma Sooners 2022 College Football Preview

Oklahoma Sooners 2022 College Football Preview

July 22, 2022

2021 Recap

Record – 11-2

ATS – 7-6

It wasn’t the season that Oklahoma fans were hoping for, that’s for sure. They started out with an impressive 9-0 run, but in hindsight, we should have seen the upcoming ICEBERG as five of those nine wins were one-score affairs. That included close shaves with Tulane, Corn, and West BY GOD Virginia. Oklahoma dropped a pair of Big 12 games down the stretch (Baylor, Oklahoma St) and failed to make the Big 12 title game for the first time since the Reagan Administration **.

Former ace DC Brent Venables rolls into Norman via the Clemson Tigers and will try and get these guys back where they belong.

Let’s go!

** needs fact check

Oklahoma Sooners 2022 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Sooners did some good work on offense LY (39.1 PPG, #8 FBS) but it was the first time since 2014 that they averaged fewer than 40 PPG. They’ll have a new look this year as former Ole Miss (!) OC Jeff Lebby wants to utilize ‘LUDICROUS SPEED’ tempo, and the good news for the Sooners is that Lebby has worked with new starting QB Dillon Gabriel in the past (UCF). Gabriel threw for over 8,000 yards in his time with the Knights and has the arm to make all the throws. Only one WR who booked more than 20 receptions with Oklahoma LY is back for duty and that is HOME RUN HITTER Marvin Mims (705, 22.0). Theo Wease returns from injury this year but they’ll need a highly-touted specimen or two to blossom in order for the THROW GAME to take off. The Sooners move on without 1,200-yard rusher Kennedy Brooks but have a deep room that includes #2 Eric Gray and a few star recruits. We expect someone to emerge as a legit stud by midseason. The offensive line is in great shape as they return over 120 career starts. This looks like a top-10 offense to us but they don’t have the overwhelming star power (on paper) that we’ve seen in years past.

DEFENSE

It’s safe to assume that new HC Brent Venables is going to get these guys playing a better brand of football on defense but Oklahoma returns just five starters on this side of the football and note that they lose their top-two tacklers and top-three (!) sack producers. The area of concern has to be a retooled DL and we’re not sure where the pressure is going to come from in 2022. There’s a good deal of raw talent and enough experience for us to feel good about the LB unit but they’ll need to do a much better job on the back end. Last season the Sooners were an extremely disappointing #100 in pass efficiency D and they’ve got a fairly young starting secondary heading into 2022. This looks like an average defense to us, but of course, having Venables on hand gives them license to be better than advertised. Stay tuned!

SPECIAL TEAMS

Oklahoma boasts one of the best punters in college football in Michael Turk (44.1 net LY!) but will need to replace PK Gabe Brkic who did great work in Norman over the years. It would be helpful to find some SPICE at KR and PR.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – They begin with a pair of guaranteed blowouts but follow that up with a sneaky-tough four-game stretch. Sooner fans will be glad to know that they get Oklahoma St and Baylor at home and don’t have to play back-to-back true road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 10th – Kent St

This contest follows the home opener and precedes a date with their former YUUUUGE rival from Nebraska. They’ll be laying a bundle of points and we’re almost certainly going to avoid eating the home chalk.

Season Win Total

per BetOnline July 22

Over 9.5 -125

Under 9.5 -105

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

We’d probably take a small taste of the ‘over’ if forced to make a decision but there are several new faces on the roster and in the coaching staff.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Oklahoma has tallied 11 or more wins in every season since 2014 (!). The lone exception was during the truncated 2020 PLANDEMIC season when they went 9-2.

MEGALOCKS Outlook:

Here we go!

We can’t wait to see how this team comes together. Brent Venables has landed in a great spot for his first head coaching gig and probably has the most talented roster in the Big 12. We expect the offense to be really good but the defense doesn’t appear to be anything special. We’ll call for the Sooners to get back to the Big 12 Championship Game but don’t think they’re head and shoulders better than the next three or four teams in the pecking order. 

Want more Oklahoma football ?

WEBSITE

https://soonersports.com/sports/football

FORUM

https://www.dirtburglars.com/forum/sports-forums/athletics/football

https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/Board/FootballRecruiting-103683/

https://oklahoma.forums.rivals.com/forums/the-crimson-corner.12/

NEWS

http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/

https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners