College Football Predictions – Charlotte 49ers 2019 College Football Preview
2018 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 7-5
That wasn’t bad at all.
The 49ers won the most games in a season since starting a full FBS schedule back in 2015. They also pulled a couple of impressive upsets with victories over Southern Miss and Florida Atlantic. They came up one win short of bowl eligibility and fired HC Brad Lambert who had been there since the program’s inception in 2013.
New HC Will Healy comes over from Austin Peay (FCS) where he did an admirable job. This roster has some talent. What are realistic expectations for 2019?
2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
Conference USA – #9
Charlotte 49ers 2019 Outlook
OFFENSE
Charlotte improved by a TD per game in scoring offense last year but still only managed to post a measly 21.7 PPG (#10 C-USA). The rushing attack was decent but they gained less than 200 YPG in the THROW GAME for the fourth consecutive year (181 YPG, #12 C-USA).
This season promises to be very interesting as the 49ers move to a spread option attack that can really crank out the rushing yards when it’s working well. Charlotte’s #1 offensive weapon is RB Benny Lemay who is one of the best RBs in C-USA (1,243, 5.4, 11 TD LY). There is good depth in the RB room and that should allow Lemay to stay fresh. Speaking of depth, Charlotte returns their top-two QBs (combined 8-6 TD to INT) and add USF transfer Brett Kean into the mix. Fall camp will ultimately decide who gets the start under center in week one. The WR corps boasts a legit #1 WR in Victor Tucker (54-712, 13.2 LY) and he’s just a sophomore. It’s unclear what kind of quality they have behind Tucker on the depth chart. We have concern with an offensive line that loses three starters including star RT Nate Davis who is off to the NFL (Titans), and don’t forget that they must learn a new offensive system.
Despite the question marks we look for an uptick in production to a level close to what the 2016 squad was able to achieve (25.2 PPG).
DEFENSE
The 49ers played SNEAKY GOOD last year and improved their scoring defense by six points per game (33 PPG to 27 PPG LY). Not many people know that Charlotte allowed a mere 106 YPG (!!) on the ground and that ranked them #9 in the FBS. The bad news? Their pass defense was horrendous as they yielded 66% completions and were 12th in C-USA in pass efficiency D. They also bagged fewer than 20 sacks for the 3rd consecutive year.
Things look good on this side of the ball in 2019 with seven starters back for duty including five of their top-six tacklers. There’s some good talent at every level of the defense, particularly on the DL where they return star DE Alex Highsmith (17.5 TFL LY) and good size on the interior. The LB group is led by senior Jeff Gemmell (#2 tackles LY) and adds Penn St transfer Brelin Faison-Walden into the rotation. Last year’s leading tackler FS Ben DeLuca will lead the secondary but it remains to be seen how much improvement the 49ers can make in defending the pass.
This has the makings of an above-average C-USA defense, notwithstanding the change in system and questionable talent at the back-end.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look grim in the return game as they were dismal on both PR and KR in 2018. We love PK Jonathan Cruz who nailed 17/22 FG attempts last season including an impressive 8/10 from 40+ yards. Don’t forget he smoked a late 4th quarter game-winning three-pointer vs the FIGHTING KIFFINS from 56 yards away in the 2018 season finale.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Let’s talk “contrast”. They have two brutal out-of-conference dates (at Appalachian St, at Clemson) but the other pair of games before C-USA play begins are both in their wheelhouse (Gardner-Webb, Massachusetts). Most of their difficult conference tests are at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing particularly troubling to note as we approach press time.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +110
Under 4.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
That looks about right. We are still thinking about it, and would probably take the ‘over’ if anything. They should start the year at 2-2 and look good enough to win three C-USA tilts.
MEGAmazing Tidbit
The UNC Charlotte Board of Trustees officially voted to add a football program on November 13, 2008. This vote was made possible by Student Government initiatives starting in 2006, including a student vote that disclosed possible hikes in tuition fees as a result of adding a football program. Despite the possibility of increases in student fees, the results of the vote displayed a large interest in adding a football team. Charlotte began play in 2013 as part of the FCS.
MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Positive
Things appear to be heading in a positive direction. The overall talent level on the roster is getting better each year and we like the hire of HC Will Healy. Time will tell how things work out but there’s no reason to believe these guys can’t eventually be competitive in C-USA. Will it happen this season? It’s hard to say, but they have the potential to make a run at their first ever bowl game appearance if the offense doesn’t take too long to find it’s way.
We’ll start with a slightly positive overall ATS outlook for Charlotte. It’s never easy to know what to expect with a new HC in town, but there are a lot of talented players on this roster, AND they will probably be undervalued from a betting perspective.
Good luck 49ers! Get to a bowl game.
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