Cheez-It Bowl – California vs TCU
The Game
Yes, guy. Nothing says “holiday season” like the CHEEZ-IT BOWL.
TCU had a REALLY tough season when you consider the on-field performance combined with injuries and off-the-field DEBACLES. Thankfully the HORNY TOADS have a great HC who RALLIED the TROOPS and coaxed three wins in the final four games out of this motley crew. The Golden Bears achieved bowl eligibility with a yuuuuuge road win over USC late in the season and come into this game with a mark of 7-5.
Who wants it more?
The Details
California -1 TCU (38.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Pick ’em
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: California 19.75 TCU 18.75
The Match-Up:
California offense vs TCU defense
Oh boy. This could be ugly.
The Golden Bears have only tallied more than 15 points once (!!) in their last five games and things will not get easier facing the #27 ranked D of TCU. QB Chase Garbers has been serviceable under center (61% 14-7) but it has been a bit of a GONG SHOW all year shuffling at the QB position. Brandon McIlwain has proven he is more of a runner (402, 4 TD) and as a team the Golden Bears are averaging a meager 9.5 (!) yards per completion. RB Patrick Laird is an old-school quality RB (932, 5 TD) but only averages 4.3 yards per carry. If it’s possible, the Cal offense actually gets worse in the red zone (#129 FBS) (!) and we don’t see them having a ton of success in this game.
TCU offense vs California defense
Oh boy. This could be ugly. <echo……echo……echo…..>
5th year senior and 3rd-string QB Grayson Muehlstein gets the call in this one and will try and do enough to get the FROGS the win. Muehlstein got the win vs Baylor to get them to this spot and his YTD stats are promising, albeit in a REALLY small sample size (28/43 3 TD 0 INT). The available weapons at RB and WR are a relative unknown at this point with #1 RB Darius Anderson out for this game to go along with the electric KaVontae Turpin who has not been with the team since about the midpoint of the season. The #91 ranked offense will have to rely on their excellent WR Jalen Reagor (1,061, 14.7, 9 TD) to have a BIG game. The issue? Cal plays fine defense (#16 total defense, #30 run D, #19 pass efficiency D) and are especially nasty in the secondary. It seems to use that the HORNY TOADS will have trouble getting much going in this contest.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
TCU HC Garry Patterson is 9-7 in bowl games and has guided the Horned Frogs to wins in three of their last four postseason appearances……This will be the first bowl game of the Justin Wilcox era at Cal as they just missed out last season (5-7 record).
Summary
This is as close to a all-time low-scoring bowl SNOT BUBBLER as you will ever see on paper. Both teams are going to struggle moving the ball and they each play solid defense. It’s hard to pick a side in this one but we lean to the under for small potatoes. We never recommend going full steam on a total this low in a bowl game.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Side: No leanage as we go to press.
Total: Lean to the under.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.