Clemson Tigers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Clemson Tigers 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 12-2

ATS – 8-5-1

The Tigers came THIS close to appearing in their third consecutive College Football Championship Game but could not get past mighty ROLL TIDE in the Sugar Bowl (L 24-6). They rolled through the regular season docket without much of a problem other than a hiccup at Syracuse (L 27-24).

The Clemson football program is something to behold. Let’s examine how they shape up for the 2018 season.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Atlantic Division – #1

ACC – #1

Clemson Tigers 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Clemson offense was down a notch last season (#5 ACC) after finishing 2nd in the conference in 2016. That was to be expected given the departure of star QB Deshaun Watson, and all things considered, Kelly Bryant did an admirable job last year (13 passing TDs, 11 rushing TDs). They needed more explosive plays out of the passing game, but it’s hard to have everything particularly when you are in a semi-rebuilding phase. This year the starting QB gig will likely go to Bryant once again but he will definitely be challenged by highly-regarded true freshman Trevor Lawrence. Reliable WR Hunter Renfrow returns (60 receptions LY) and Tee Higgins has explosive potential (20.2 YPC LY). The jury is still out in terms of finding a true game-breaking #1 wideout.

The rushing attack will be excellent. Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster combined for over 1,400 yards and 20 (!) TDs on the ground in 2017 and should prove to be a phenomenal 1-2 punch. The offensive line is a good shape with 3/5 starters returning including all-conference players at C and LT. We project the Tigers to exceed their PPG output from last season (33.3) and approach the level of 2016 (39.2). Our supercomputer complex projects 37.7 PPG.

DEFENSE

It’s not an exaggeration to suggest that the Tigers might have the best DL (on paper) heading into a season this century. All four starters return to a line that was ruthless last year bagging 46 sacks (T1 FBS – Ohio St) and allowing a mere 115 YPG on the ground (#1 ACC). Without going through all the numerous accolades for the DL stars, let’s just say that all four men look like legit NFL players. They lose last season’s leading tackler to the NFL (LB Dorian O’Daniel – Chiefs) but return a pair of talented starters to the LB unit. Clemson did a great job in pass defense last year (16-14 TD to INT ratio, 52.5% completions) and appear talented once again in the back end despite returning just a pair of starters.

Clemson allowed just 13.6 (!) PPG last season (#2 FBS, ROLL TIDE) and we forecast a similar performance in 2018.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Clemson will be happy to see a healthy PK Greg Huegel back for duty (2nd Team ACC in 2016) but they will miss the PR ability of Ray-Ray McCloud (12.1, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s not “easy” but it’s certainly something they can handle. There is no Auburn on the docket but they do have to make a road trip to College Station to face Texas A&M. They also avoid Miami from the Coastal Division and only have five road games.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing to note. Not crazy about the Georgia Southern game (Texas A&M / Georgia Tech sandwich) but a run-based offense facing the Clemson DL smells like trouble. Even if the spread is over 5-TDs we would probably just avoid the game altogether.

Season Win Total

Over 11 -120

Under 11 +100

MEGALOCKS says:

Do not adjust your sets. We lean to the under only because we believe it’s better value to take a shot at them losing two games vs going undefeated. One loss gets you a push. Keep in mind that Syracuse got the Tigers last year and Pitt did it the year before (and NC State ALMOST did it).

<if you can find a 10.5, even at a price around -140, that would be the time to go over>

MEGAmazing Tidbits

Clemson players rub Howard’s Rock upon entering Memorial Stadium. The rock was given to head coach Frank Howard in the early 1960s by one Samuel C. Jones as a reference to “Death Valley”, the name that Howard used to refer to the stadium. The rock was originally located in Death Valley, California. Amaze your SMOKESHOW COCKTAIL WAITRESS with that gem.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the TIGERS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.

It doesn’t take a genius to surmise that the Tigers are locked and LOADED for another run at a National Championship. The defense will be MUST SEE TV. The offense should be a bit more explosive this season and that is a scary thought. They are clearly the class of the ACC “on paper”.

We are yuuuuge fans of HC Dabo Swinney and have been for a long time. He not only wins games but does a fine job vs the point spread (72-61-2 L10 years; 54.1%) considering they are almost always a favorite that demands public attention. The last losing campaign vs Vegas was back in 2014 (6-7 ATS).

It won’t make a lot of sense to be FADE THE PUBLIC GUY and bet against Clemson on a regular basis because their defense is just too flat out nasty. Having said that, you should probably use some caution backing them on a regular basis because the spreads will almost certainly be inflated and there is no reason to think they will have the regular killer instinct you need to cover a lot of massive lines.

Pick your spots and enjoy the ride.

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