College Football Championship – Alabama vs Georgia
posted January 7
The Game
The DATE with DESTINY has been confirmed as Georgia battles ROLL TIDE for all the marbles on Monday night. We all suspected this might be the case back in the summer, and here we are. ROLL TIDE blasted Georgia in the SEC Championship Game (W 41-24) and got to this game by handling Cincinnati with ease despite using an ultra-vanilla game plan (W 27-6). The Bulldogs absolutely DESTROYED Michigan in their semi-final (W 34-11) and will look to dish out some some REVENGE over Alabama and book a long-awaited National Championship.
Let’s goooooooooooooooooo !
The Details
Georgia -2.5 Alabama (52.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -1.5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 27.5 Alabama 25
Georgia offense vs Alabama defense
The DAWGS offense is built around their deep and punishing rushing attack (#36 FBS) and a very efficient THROW GAME (#5 pass efficiency) behind QB Stetson Bennett. The SEC Championship Game didn’t work out well for a number of reasons. The run game didn’t get much done (30/109, long 14), they allowed 24 (!) points in the 2nd Q which took them out of the game plan, and they were a horrid 3/12 on 3rd downs. Can they get things turned around? Well the ROLL TIDE run D is still outstanding (#4 FBS) and they held Cincinnati to 74 net rushing yards in the semi-final. Bennett threw for 340 yards vs Alabama in their last meeting but it’s clear that he’s not as efficient when they NEED to move the ball thru the air (2 INT in that game). Bennett does a good job of distributing the ball to the WR/RB/TE weapons but their only real star is TE B Bowers who did good work in the SEC title game (10-139, TD). ROLL TIDE can be hit thru the air but they’re T1 in the SEC in INTs (15). Note that Alabama has a mediocre 14-5 TD to INT mark since the Tennessee game and it won’t help to be without Josh Jobe in the secondary. Georgia does a fine job of protecting the passer but the Tide got to Bennett three times in their last meeting.
Alabama offense vs Georgia defense
Heisman winner QB B Young was absolutely PHENOMENAL vs Georgia in the SEC title game (421, 3-0 TD to INT, 9.6) and will have to book another big game if ROLL TIDE wants to emerge as champs. The $88 billion question is this; will they be able to be as effective without WR J Metchie? He was a yuuuuge part of what made the THROW GAME so deadly, and outside of superstar WR J Williams, it’s not like they have a ton of big-time weapons. The strategy last week was to relentlessly pound the run and avoid trying to do too much vs the elite Cincinnati secondary. Williams had 7 grabs for 62 yards in that one and WR Ja’Correy Brooks showed promise (4 catches, 66Y). We expect a similar game plan as BOUT NUMBER ONE – Throw the ball. Georgia didn’t book a single sack (!) in that game and will need to find a way to get Young on the ground a few times. The Georgia run D was good but not great vs ROLL TIDE in the SEC title game (26-115) and they need to stiffen up and try and get Alabama into more 2nd and long and 3rd and long situations. The ideal game script would be to establish the THROW GAME (again) and mix it up with the run to keep Georgia off balance. ROLL TIDE is #2 (!) in the FBS in 3rd down conversions (52.7%) and were 7/14 in the title match. We expect a much more inspired performance from the Georgia defense and don’t expect Young to have a massive game without Metchie.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
This is not only a rematch of the SEC title game but a REBOOT of the CFP Championship final that ended the 2017 season…..ROLL TIDE found a way to come back and take down Georgia in a 26-23 OT thriller thanks to TUA coming off the bench and coming up with the “2nd and 26” miracle TD pass to DeVonta Smith…….The game will be played in Indianapolis and thankfully this bad boy will be indoors…..some cold weather there right now, yo……The great Nick Saban has led the Tide to an impossible SIX National Titles……ROLL TIDE is 1-4 ATS in CFP finals.
Summary
It’d be completely reasonable to side with either team in this game. We lean towards the more consistent team, and that is Georgia. After the opening win over Clemson they rolled through the regular season like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE. 56-7. 40-13. 62-0. 37-0. 34-10. 30-13. 34-7. 43-6. 41-17. 56-7. 45-0. They got beat handily by ROLL TIDE but came back with a dominating victory over a rock solid Michigan squad. Alabama gets full credit for their accomplishments but were life and death to beat Florida, Auburn, and LSU. And WOO PIG SOOIE gave them all they could handle. Your pal Kirby Smart hasn’t proven his chops in a big game but we’ll call for a win and a title.
Conclusion
Lean – Georgia -2.5
<Note for Award-winning MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB MEMBERS…….We’ve come down with a case of HEDGEITIS and will be making a small play on ROLL TIDE ML to offset some of our Georgia +880 National title exposure….See Futures and Season Win Total blog post for more details….If you didn’t partake in that SWEET ACTION we lean Georgia -2.5…..GL and enjoy the game!>
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.