College Football Championship – TCU vs Georgia
posted January 7
The Game
It’s time for the grand finale! What a set of semi-finals, yo. Absolutely epic. TCU jumped out to a big lead vs Michigan and held on to win a 51-45 thriller. The Horned Frogs kept their magical season alive. Coach Jim and friends suffer a crushing defeat. Ohio St had a 101% in-game win percentage according to industry algorithms for most of the 2nd half vs Georgia but somehow, someway, managed to puke the game away. 42-41 final as Ohio St misses a game-winning FG attempt. That’s an OUCHIE.
Can the Bulldogs hit BACK-TO-BACK JACKS and win another National Championship?
The Details
Georgia -12.5 TCU (63)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Georgia -11
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Georgia 37.75 TCU 25.25
Georgia offense vs TCU defense
Georgia QB S Bennett came up yuuuuge on the big stage once again when the team needed him the most and he finished the semi-final with an eye-popping stat line (23/34, 398, 3-1 TD to INT). The rushing attack was decent enough (26/135, 5.2 YPC) but they couldn’t stick with it thanks to an Ohio St THROW GAME that ripped their defense apart and turned the contest into a track meet. The Dawgs should be able to do good things on the ground given that TCU has allowed 4.6 YPC or more in five of their last six games and they rank #6 in the Big 12 in rushing defense. We also expect Georgia to have success thru the air as they rank #15 in the nation in passing offense and Bennett does a nice job of spreading the ball around to his WR/TE/RB targets. It’ll hurt to have TE D Washington and WR L McConkey at less than 100% (or unavailable) but we like that fact that it’s impossible to key on one or two guys. Recall that the great TE Brock Bowers was a non-factor vs Ohio St (4-64, 0 TD) and yet Georgia still managed to put up 42 points. Things don’t look good for TCU from a PENETRATION perspective as Georgia has allowed a mere NINE sacks all season and rank #3 in the nation in TFL allowed/game.
TCU offense vs Georgia defense
What else can be said about Max Duggan? The stats are impressive (32-6 TD to INT, 8 rush TD), he’s tougher than a NIGHT IN JAIL, and he just knows how to win. It should be noted, however, that Duggan had average passing stats in his last two outings vs Kansas St and Michigan (32/65, 49%, 3-3 TD to INT). The good news is that Duggan was a monster on the ground in those two games (30-167, 3 TD, 5.6 YPC) and he should be able to do good things vs a Georgia stop unit that made Ohio St QB CJ Stroud (not exactly a running threat) look like a combination of Barry Sanders and Jim Brown at times last week. Duggan will have to pick up rushing yards as the Georgia run defense is ridiculous (80 YPG, #2 FBS) and note that star RB K Miller (1,399, 6.2, 17 TD) is listed as questionable for this game. #2 RB E Demercado is a good one but it would be a yuuuuge blow to have to play this game with a limited (or absent) Miller. TCU’s only shot in this one is for Duggan to have a big day vs the Georgia secondary. Ohio St proved that it could be done but Stroud is a much more polished passer than Duggan. Thankfully for Duggan, he’s got one of the best WRs in college football at his disposal in Q Johnston, as well as a few other spicy WR targets. And don’t sleep on TE J Wiley (10.5 YPC, 4 TD). Georgia doesn’t get a ton of pressure on the QB so the Horned Frogs definitely have the ability to do serious damage thru the air. Duggan just has to limit his mistakes.
Trends, Intangibles, and More!
If you believe in the importance of big-game experience then you have to think that the Dawgs have the edge……They’ve been in a lot of games of this magnitude over the last few seasons and are the defending National Champs……This is the largest point spread in the history of the title game….Double-digit favs are 1-2 SU and ATS……YOUR Miami Hurricanes lost to Ohio, Florida St lost to Oklahoma, and ROLL TIDE smashed Notre Dame.
Summary
It’s really tough to go against the Horned Frogs. We’ve been yuuuge fans of them all season and they’ve treated us to a lot of entertaining football. We don’t love the contest from a betting standpoint but lean to the favorite. TCU does their best work when they can get things going on the ground and we just don’t see that happening in this game. Duggan will do some good things but we doubt he’ll be able to have the precision and consistency that CJ Stroud had last week. We don’t expect Georgia to have much trouble on offense and believe that they’ll likely have a double-digit win when it’s all said and done.
Conclusion
Lean – Georgia -12.5
We’ll post a few props on Monday once they become more widely available.
Update: Monday 3:20pm
Here are a few prop bets we’ll be sprinkling upon. GL and enjoy the game!
Longest TD over 49.5 yards -120
Anytime TD scorer – Brock Bowers -180
Anytime TD scorer – Max Duggan +120
Anytime TD scorer – Stetson Bennett +130
B Bowers over 64.5 receiving yards -115
A Mitchell over 43.5 receiving yards -115
J Wiley over 16.5 receiving yards -110
Highest scoring half – 2nd/OT +100
Note:
‘Official play’ implies we have played the game for our standard wager amount.
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game if you want to get down on some sweet action.
‘No leanage’ implies we won’t be involved in the game from a betting standpoint. In-game wagering possibilities only.