Colorado at USC – College Football Predictions
The Game
Don’t look now, but the Colorado Buffaloes sit on top of the PAC-12 South standings with a record of 5-0 (2-0 conference). We can’t get too far ahead of ourselves given that the pair of conference wins came against UCLA and Arizona St but the Buffs look pretty good. USC has played a much tougher schedule and have suffered a pair of losses during the campaign (Stanford, Texas). The Trojans can get right back into the PAC-12 mix with a win on Saturday night.
The Details
USC -7 Colorado (57)
MEGALOCKS LINE – USC -5
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: USC 32 Colorado 25
The Match-Up:
Colorado offense vs USC defense
QB Steven Montez has been doing fine work under center so far this season completing 75% (!) of his passes with an excellent 11-2 TD to INT ratio. The Buffs offense is really balanced (#43 rushing, #22 passing) and boasts a true #1 RB in Travon McMillian (four 100-yard rushing games) and one of the best WRs in college football Laviska Shenault who has 708 (!) yards receiving and 10 combined receiving and rushing TDs in five games. Montez is experienced and mobile enough to cause problems for opposing defenses. The Trojans D has been pretty average this season even when accounting for the difficult schedule they have faced. They have only bagged four sacks in their last four contests, are ranked #71 vs the run, #54 in pass efficiency D and #70 on 3rd downs. They may also be without star LB Cameron Smith (hamstring) according to our DEEP UNDERCOVER USC INSIDERS. Fun fact – USC has only forced 3 turnovers all season.
USC offense vs Colorado defense
Freshman QB JT Daniels has done a decent job this season and has led the Trojans to back-to-back conference wins (Washington St, Arizona). Daniels has a nice chemistry with fellow freshman Amon-Ra St Brown who has put up some good numbers in five games (396, 15.8). The passing production (4 TD passes all season) (!) and efficiency (#86 FBS) is going to have to improve markedly for the Trojans to have a shot at a division title. Their top-3 RBs are averaging 6.2, 5.9 and 5.3 yards per carry, and much like Colorado, they will need to be balanced in this game in order to pull out a victory. Colorado is tied for 2nd in the PAC-12 in sacks per game (#2) and should be able to test a Trojans OL that has allowed at least two sacks in every game. The Trojans have enough ability to get into the 20s vs the Colorado defense but it’s hard to imagine them going nuts in this contest.
Trends, Intangibles and More!
Colorado is 0-12 straight-up all-time vs USC……..0-7 as PAC-12 buddies……USC HC Clay Helton is 18-0 (!) at home with the Trojans….USC is 5-14 ATS since the start of last season….TREND GUY has a lot to chew on this week….USC is #122 in penalty yards per game and #111 in net punting.
Summary
There is no doubt who has played the tougher schedule. USC. The toughest part of this handicap is deciding how much extra weight to give to a Trojans team that has looked average in almost every respect possible BUT has done so vs relatively difficult competition. Colorado has done nothing wrong and look balanced and motivated. Their toughest game? Home against Arizona St. The good news is that the point spread is the great equalizer. We think the line should be in the 4/5 range. The Sagarin ratings have this one at a pick em. Probably “interesting but useless information” but it does get you thinking.
This could be the biggest win of the MacIntyre era at Colorado and these players are going to play like their hair is on fire to become LEGENDS. The first Buffs team to take down the mighty giant. USC will just need to survive. Feels like a one-score game, yo.
Conclusion
Official play: Colorado +7 -108. (do not play lower than +7)