Colorado St Rams 2024 College Football Preview (free access)

Colorado St Rams 2024 College Football Preview

Posted June 15, 2024

2023 Recap

Record – 5-7

ATS – 4-8

If you’ve ever fallen off a roof and landed on a bike with no seat, that’s how the Rams felt after the regular season ended. They were sitting with a mark of 3-6 before they won back-to-back games (San Diego St, Nevada) to get within one game of bowl eligibility. What could possibly go wrong? Well, they lost on a last second FG in the final game to a mediocre Hawaii squad and it was HOME for the HOLIDAYS.

Can the Rams finally find a way to get to a bowl game in 2024?


Colorado St Rams 2024 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Rams had one of the worst rushing attacks in the country LY (92 YPG, #123) and keep in mind that they only allowed 14 (!) sacks (#11) so it’s not like a bunch of negative sack yards had a big impact. The good news is that the Rams were very good at MATRICULATING the ball down the field thru the air (#9) and QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is back for duty after throwing for over 3,400 yards and 22 TDs LY. The bad news is that he threw 16 to the other team and he’s gotta cut down on the mistakes if the offense is to thrive in 2024. WR Troy Horton is coming off another fantastic season (1,136, 8 TD) and he’s one of the best at his position in the nation. They’ll miss star TE Dallin Holker who just might have the most reliable hands in the history of football at any level so it’ll be interesting to see if they can find a replacement close to Holker’s quality. They’ve added a few interesting WR/TE transfers so we’ve got confidence that the THROW GAME will still be potent, and keep your eye on highly-touted true freshman Jordan Ross. We love the potential of RB Justin Marshall who FLASHED some serious SKILLZ last year and the OL returns three very experienced starters. We know they can pass protect, but can these guys figure out how to run block? <grabs popcorn>

DEFENSE

Colorado St was another Mountain West team that struggled on defense LY (#95 run D, #112 pass efficiency D) but they did manage to get ample PENETRATION (33 sacks, #2 MW). The Rams are really going to miss elite pass rushing DE Mohamed Kamara who’s off to the NFL (13 sacks LY) but at least they’ve got seven returning starters and three of their-top four tacklers to rely upon this season. The DL loses its two best players (including Kamara) which makes us concerned about the prospects for the defense right off the top. Thankfully, they retain #2 tackler LB Chase Wilson (#2 tackler, 8.5 TFL LY), and the secondary features an excellent senior safety combo in Jack Howell (#1 tackler) and Henry Blackburn (#4 tackler, 7 TFL, 3 INT LY). We’ve got concerns about the pass rush but think that the overall quality of the defensive personnel is decent.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Yes, guy.

The Rams have an excellent kicking game with the return of PK Jordan Noyes (15/19 FG, 29/29 XP LY) and punter Paddy Turner (43.3, 40.7 net). And don’t forget that Tory Horton is a serious weapon on punt returns (13.4, TD LY).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – The non-conference slate is pretty nasty as they’ll have to deal with Texas (A), Colorado (H), and Oregon St (A). On a positive note, we like the look of the Mountain West schedule as they miss Boise St and get to play three potential TOMATO CANS  (San Jose St, New Mexico, Nevada).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UTEP (Sept 21)

This looks like a bad place to back the home favorite as they’ll face the Miners after the INTENSE rivalry game with Colorado and before a road trip to Oregon St.

Season Win Total

Market consensus June 15

Over 6.5 -115

Under 6.5 -115

MEGALOCKS says:

No leanage.

ARGH. We’d love to play ‘over 6’ but it’s unlikely we’ll find that number over the summer. Our GUN TO THE HEAD ** pick is the ‘over’ but it might be smarter to take a small taste in the Mountain West futures market instead. Stay tuned!

** Easy, Karen. It’s just an expression.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Rams haven’t had a winning season since 2017 (!) when they went 7-6 under your boy Mike Bobo. The last time they won more than seven games was during the 2014 season (10-3) when piloted by Jim McElwain.

Thankfully for dedicated Colorado St football fans, Fort Collins is home to over 20 breweries.


MEGALOCKS Forecast:

Three wins. Five wins. Can seven or more be next? That’s the reasonable challenge facing the Jay Norvell regime in year three. They’ve got some serious talent on the offensive side of the football but the defense appears to be a good notch down from what’s needed to compete for a conference title. We’ll call for six or seven wins and, wait for it, a BOWL GAME!