Cotton Bowl – Notre Dame vs Clemson
The Game
Whoa, Nellie!
How is this for a playoff semi-final? Notre Dame. Clemson. Combined record of 25-0. In fact, this is the first time we have had a pair of undefeated squads in a playoff semi-final game. The Fighting Irish come into this game sitting at 12-0 and are able to boast eight wins over bowl teams. They had a couple of close shaves during the season but get credit for navigating a pretty tough schedule, even though some of the squads on their docket were not as tough as usual. Clemson sports a fine 13-0 mark and destroyed their ACC opposition to the tune of 378-93 (!). Does Notre Dame have the MINERALS to hang with the powerful Tigers? Let’s examine.
The Details
Clemson -12.5 Notre Dame (56.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Clemson -11
Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Clemson 34.5 Notre Dame 22
The Match-Up:
Clemson offense vs Notre Dame defense
The Tigers make a habit of moving like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE and can be equally potent on the ground (#9 FBS rushing offense) and via the THROW GAME (#21 passing efficiency). QB Trevor Lawrence has looked really good in his freshman season (24-4 TD to INT) and can utilize a ton of dangerous weapons at WR. The Tigers are loaded at wideout and have a lot of speed that will pose big time problems for a really good Notre Dame defense (#2 FBS pass efficiency D) (!). Clemson WRs Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross have combined for over 1,500 yards and 16 TDs and the depth behind them is impressive. Here’s the thing. Notre Dame has only allowed 7 (!) TD passes all season (12 INT) which is the best outside of Mississippi St (5). The match-up is doable for Notre Dame IF they can slow down maybe (?) the most overlooked weapon in college football in RB Travis Etienne who has rumbled for 1,463 yards and 21 TDs at an eye-popping 8.3 YPC. There is depth behind him (shocked. not really.) and Clemson has rushed for 46 TDs as a team. Notre Dame ranks #31 in run defense and #34 in yards per carry allowed (3.68) but this is going to be their biggest challenge of the season. They have certainly shown the ability to stop the run. Not including the game against Navy (run essentially every play) the Irish rushing yards allowed totals have been 55,132,116,108,106,119 and 94 coming down the stretch. The Clemson implied team total looks about right to us. The balance is unlike anything Notre Dame has faced this season BUT the Irish are well coached and have no discernable weakness on defense.
Notre Dame offense vs Clemson defense
The Notre Dame offense took off once QB Ian Book took over the controls and RB Dexter Williams returned from suspension. Book is completing 70% of his passes at an impressive 8.8 yards per attempt (19-6 TD to INT). The WR duo of Miles Boykin and Chase Claypool (102 receptions, 1,434 yards, 12 TDs) will cause problems for the Clemson secondary that has been occasionally roasted IF Book is given time to throw the football. The Tigers rank #3 in the FBS in sacks (46) (!) but Notre Dame has only allowed 19 all season. Clemson will be without starting DT Dexter Lawrence who is a sure-fire #1 NFL draft pick but thankfully they are loaded up front. The million-dollar question is can the Irish find a way to run the ball on Clemson? As good as RB Dexter Williams (941, 6.6, 12 TD) and the offensive line may be the Clemson D has been a rock vs the run all season (#3 FBS run defense, #1 YPC 2.40). The optimal strategy would seem to be for Notre Dame to try and get things done with the pass on first down and mix things up. If they are too predictable with the rushing attack they will almost certainly not be able to take advantage of the ONLY potential soft spot on the Clemson D (medium-long range passes).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The last time Clemson lost to someone other than Alabama in a bowl game was after the 2011 season when they got smoked by West Virginia in the Orange Bowl…….Clemson and Notre Dame have combined to go 18-0 vs bowl teams this year. Whoa.
Summary
We have been going back and forth on this one for a while. Clemson has the pedigree in terms of recent big-game experience, more explosive skill position players and a brick-wall run defense. Notre Dame is a really balanced team that will be tough and not overwhelmed in this spot. We think the point spread in the current -12 range is fair. Our favorite play will be to take a small taste of the Irish team total under 21.5.
Conclusion
Official play: None.
Side: Lean to Notre Dame team total under 21.5.
Total: No leanage.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.