Dollar General Bowl – Buffalo vs Troy
The Game
Yes, guy.
We have an under-the-radar match-up to look forward to as Buffalo takes on Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. These two teams have combined for 19 (!) wins so far this season and there is no reason to expect anything other than a close and entertaining game. The Bulls came within a point (literally) of winning the MAC Championship Game but they BARFED up a 19-point lead to a team that has trouble completing a forward pass. Troy had legitimate hopes of taking the Sun Belt crown before the season started but could not deal with the JUGGERNAUT called Appalachian St.
The Details
Buffalo -1.5 Troy (49.5)
MEGALOCKS LINE – Buffalo -1
“Vegas” Implied Projected Score: Buffalo 25.5 Troy 24
The Match-Up:
Buffalo offense vs Troy defense
Troy is gonna have their hands full, yo.
QB Tyree Jackson just might be one of the best QBs in the nation that nobody talks about. The completion % is not great (55%) and there are a few too many INTs (27-11 TD to INT ratio) but Jackson has a knack for hitting big plays when MATRICULATING down the field in the passing game and he led the Bulls to a 10-win campaign. Speaking of those targets in the THROW GAME, the Bulls have a DYNAMIC DUO at WR in Anthony Johnson and KJ Osborn who have tallied 17 TD receptions so far in 2018. In fact, the Bulls top-3 WRs have insane average per catch METRICS (18.2, 17.0, 21.9). How does this happen? Well the Bulls OL is excellent in pass protection (12 sacks allowed in 13 games) (!) and Jackson is excellent at getting that extra split-second in the pocket. The Bulls’ rushing attack is deep and lethal with Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks combining for over 1,700 yards and 25 (!!) TDs on the ground. The good news for Troy is that their D is solid (#28 FBS, #29 vs the run, #54 pass efficiency D). The Trojans have tallied 36 sacks (#1 Sun Belt) but as noted the Bulls OL is REALLY good at preventing PENETRATION. It seems to us that the Bulls are a good bet to exceed their implied point total of 25.5.
Troy offense vs Buffalo defense
This isn’t exactly your mama’s Troy offense. The Trojans are ranked #79 in the FBS in total offense (#56 rushing, #90 passing) and are not as explosive without QB Kaleb Barker at the controls. Sawyer Smith has been adequate under center (61%, 10-6 TD to INT ratio) but they only have one player on the roster (Damion Willis) with more than 500 yards receiving. On the plus side, the Bulls pulled a STEVIE WONDER impersonation vs Northern Illinois in the 2nd half so it’s not inconceivable that Troy can get things done via the air attack. The Trojans are at their best when RB BJ Smith is rolling (1,093 yards, 12 TD) but he was held under 100 yards in his last three contests. The Bulls can bring the heat (T2 MAC with 34 sacks) and are good on defense (#31 FBS).
Trends, Intangibles and More!
The Bulls have NEVER (!!) won a bowl game (0-2)….Troy only scored 22 points combined (!!) in their final two contests but will the “home field” advantage (Mobile, Alabama) give them a boost?
Summary
It happens sometimes. We were originally leaning to Troy but have now flipped over to the side of the Bulls. They are the better team AND you can never underestimate the motivation behind being a member of the FIRST Buffalo Bulls team to win a bowl game. Troy has a good defense and are playing close to home. This is a tough call but our INSIDERS lean to Buffalo to get that elusive bowl win. <grabs popcorn>
Conclusion
Official play: None yet.
Side: Lean to Buffalo.
Total: No leanage to report.
As always:
‘Lean’ implies we are comfortable suggesting ‘small potatoes’ on the game. Nothing more. < but always stay tuned for updates >
‘Slight lean’ implies we are almost certain to avoid the game and/or total from a betting standpoint even for ‘small potatoes’. We give an opinion for those who need to get down and want advice.