Duke Blue Devils 2016 NCAA Football Preview
DUKE BLUE DEVILS
Atlantic Coast Conference – Coastal Division
2015 Record – 8-5
ATS – 7-6
2016 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating Rank
Coastal Division #5
Conference #10
2015 Recap
Duke finished another impressive season with an OT victory over Indiana in the Pinstripe Bowl. The Blue Devils’ record over the past three seasons is now 27-13. They also provided some excitement for fans in back-to-back weeks, beating Virginia Tech on the road in a 4-OT slugfest, and following that up with an impossibly impossible loss vs Miami. Wacky, last-second, multiple-lateral kickoff return TDs are always fun.
2016 Preview
OFFENSE
Duke football fans were disappointed to hear that QB Thomas Sirk ruptured his Achilles tendon in February. Sirk was really good last season leading the team in rushing (803 yards – 8TDs) and passing for over 2,500 yards and 16 more TDs. The good news is that it appears the recovery is going well and he just might be back in September. If Sirk cannot go, the starting job will be up for grabs with Parker Boehme the likely favorite to win the job as he had playing time in 2015.
The run game should be decent this season but they would really miss the running ability of Sirk should he be unable to play. The RB unit is deep and the offensive line returns three starters. Duke loses their top receiver from last season and needs to find a way to stretch opposing defenses.
DEFENSE
Duke’s defense started to struggle down the stretch last season when they were not facing the likes of Tulane, NC Central, Army and Boston College. You know things are rough when you give up 66 points in one game and two weeks later give up 42 to Virginia. Duke finished last season ranked 10th in total defense in the ACC and 13th in sacks. They only return six starters this season and lose their top two tacklers from 2015. We really like the fact that the secondary returns all four starters so it should be a lot better. We just have a hard time seeing the run defense holding up and look for Duke to give up over 400+ yards per game in 2016.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Some good news and some really bad news. On the positive side, Duke brings back star KR DeVon Edwards who led the ACC in kickoff return average (29.2) and had THREE TDs. The bad news is that they lose the outstanding PK and P combination who were rock solid for a number of years.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
David Cutcliffe has done an amazing job. Before he arrived they had just finished putting up consecutive seasons of 0-12 and 1-11. Fast forward to present-day earth where they have gone 27-13 the past three seasons. This year they are going to have their hands full with the schedule. The easiest games on the docket are in the first half of the season but that early stretch also includes road games at Northwestern and Notre Dame. November promises to be a killer.
Overall, we give the BLUE DEVILS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season. As a handicapper, it is impossible not to be impressed by how Cutcliffe’s Duke teams have performed against the number. In eight seasons he has accumulated an overall record of 59% ATS. Forget trends like Team X is 3-11 on Tuesdays after a full moon – THIS 59% RECORD over eight seasons is something that we must respect as predictive of future results. We are almost assuredly going to look foolish calling for a sub-.500 record ATS this season, but we have less faith than most people in the defense, and are worried that Sirk may not get back to last season’s form. Pick your spots.
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