Duke Blue Devils 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – Duke Blue Devils 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record – 7-6

ATS – 7-5-1

“WE’RE GOING STREAKING !”

Frank “The Tank” Ricard <Old School> <2003>

The Blue Devils were a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma. They won their first four games, proceeded to lose the next six, and then rattled off three victories to end the campaign. The Quick Lane Bowl victory over Northern Illinois (36-14) capped a true roller-coaster season.

What can we expect in 2018? Let’s dig in.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

Coastal Division – #2

ACC – #5

Duke Blue Devils 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Blue Devils managed just 26.5 PPG last year (#10 ACC) and once again failed to crack the 30 PPG mark after doing it four times in a row (2012-2015). QB Daniel Jones did not take the step forward that was hoped, and while he battled through injuries, the Dukies need him to play a lot better if they are to challenge in the division (14-11 TD to INT ratio LY). Jones has a nice compliment of weapons to throw to as his top-three WR from last year’s squad all return to the mix as well as TE Daniel Helm. The offensive line will need to do a better job in pass protection (29 sacks allowed LY) and only return a pair of starters this season. The RB group loses #1 Shaun Wilson (818, 6 TD LY) but Brittain Brown was a close 2nd in rushing yards last year (701, 7 TD). Sophomore Deon Jackson might end up being a SURPRISE PACKAGE.

As with many teams, the efficiency and effectiveness of the offense will depend on the offensive line gelling and doing an above-average job. It’s possible, but we are a bit skeptical. Let’s call for mildly improved production in 2018.

DEFENSE

Yes, guy.

Duke played rock solid defense (#4 ACC, #21 FBS) in 2017 and bring back eight starters to the mix this year. The DL features three returning starters with nice size on the inside and talent on the outside. The LB group is led by leading tackler and AA Joe Giles-Harris who was a STATS MACHINE last season (125 tackles, 16 TFL, 9 QBH). The secondary is led by 1st Team ACC CB Mark Gilbert who had 6 INTs last year and an impressive 15 (!) PBUs.

Bottom line? The defense has some serious talent and is going to be one of the top four or five stop units in the ACC. Our only concern is the departure of ace DC Jim Knowles who is off to Oklahoma St.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The return units were not stellar last season (#24 KOR, #96 PR) and could use some additional spice. Solid PK Austin Parker is back after connecting on 17/21 FG attempts in 2017.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s sneaky tough. They draw Clemson from the Atlantic Division and their first three non-conference tilts are not easy (Army, at Northwestern, at Baylor).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Clemson (November 17). This will be the Dukies 4th road game in six weeks and it’s Clemson’s final ACC tilt. That means Duke will get the Tigers’ full attention.

Season Win Total

Over 6 -125

Under 6 +105

MEGALOCKS says:

Lean to the over. Things will look good if they can start the season at 3-1 or better. Then again, they proved they could lose six games in a row last season like it was nothing. It’s just hard to see this team not making a bowl game.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

The Duke Blue Devils were known as the Trinity Blue and White when they first took the field in 1888.

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the BLUE DEVILS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.

Last season we SHOCKED the WORLD when we correctly pegged Duke to be a team likely to have success vs the point spread………Duke has been sliding the past couple of seasons from a 10-win campaign in 2013 down to a 4-8 record last year. The funny thing ? Duke has a WHOPPING 64.7% success rate against the point spread over that time horizon (33-18-1). Normally, you could argue regression is coming, but when it comes to under-the-radar football programs like Duke, they just do not get the respect they deserve.

What about 2018?

This looks like a well-rounded team with a stingy defense. The schedule is not kind, but the Blue Devils have the look of a money-maker considering HC Cutcliffe’s record vs Vegas. Since 2008 he is an eye-popping 70-49-4 (58.8%) against the number. DEGENERATE NATION does not make it a habit of putting Duke on their weekly cards and value cannot help but percolate to the surface on occasion.

They get on the watch list to start the season.

Want more Duke football ?

WEBSITE

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NEWS

http://www.dukechronicle.com/section/football