College Football Predictions – Duke Blue Devils 2020 College Football Preview
2019 Recap
Record – 5-7
ATS – 4-6-2
The Blue Devils looked pretty good at the half-way point of the season. They had a record of 4-2 with their only two losses coming vs ROLL TIDE and Pitt (lost by three points). Then the wheels came off and they proceeded to lose five consecutive games. The season-ending win vs Miami wasn’t much consolation as they finished with just their 2nd losing season since 2012 (!).
Let’s take a look at see if they have potential to get back to their winning ways.
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
ACC – #12
<Note: In 2020, the top two teams in the ACC advance to the conference title game regardless of division. That includes Notre Dame.>
Duke Blue Devils 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Blue Devils had one of the weakest offenses in college football last year (#13 total offense ACC, #114 FBS) and it’s reported that head coach David Cutcliffe will take over the play calling duties this season. One of the more intriguing additions in the ACC in 2020 is the transfer of former Clemson back-up QB Chase Brice to the Blue Devils. That should provide an immediate upgrade at the QB position and it’ll help that their #1 WR (Jalon Calhoun, 46-420 4 TD), team leader in receptions (TE Noah Gray, 51-392, 3 TD), and #1 RB (Deon Jackson, 641 6 TD, 21 catches all return for duty. They’ll have to find away to be more explosive in the THROW GAME as they averaged an embarrassing 5.7 yards per attempt LY (last ACC, #123 FBS). The offensive line looks to be in good shape as they return four starters and adding Stanford transfer Devery Hamilton won’t hurt. Fun fact. Duke turned the ball over a whopping 28 times (last ACC, #127 FBS) and finished with a horrible turnover margin of -11. They’ll need to clean things up in this department if they want any hope of contending in the division.
It’s hard to know what kind of impact Brice will have and it’s unclear how much improvement we should expect at the skill positions. This still feels like an offense that will struggle in 2020.
<update – LS Ben Wyatt has opted out of the 2020 season>
DEFENSE
The defense was mediocre a season ago (#7 total defense ACC, #10 rushing D, #5 pass efficiency D) and they allowed the most PPG (29.2) since 2012. The pass rush was a pleasant surprise (35 sacks) and they return their excellent DE Victor Dimukeje who led the Blue Devils in sacks LY (8.5), and recall that fellow DE Chris Rumph bagged 6.5 of those bad boys. That’s a good place to start on defense. Unfortunately, the depth on the defensive line and elsewhere was hurt by attrition and the transfer portal. Among the losses are last season’s top-two tacklers LB Koby Quansah and safety Dylan Singleton. The good news is that the secondary looks like a fine complement to the pass rushing DEs, even after considering some departures via the transfer portal. There’s a lot of experience on hand and they get back a healthy CB Mark Gilbert who was 1st Team ACC in 2017.
The defense struggled in November LY allowing 38,49,39 before handling an impotent Miami squad. We expect them to show improvement in 2020 and be good enough to support a run to a bowl game.
<update – projected starting LB Brandon Hill has opted out of the 2020 season>
SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be a problem area. PK AJ Reed nailed 15/18 FGs LY but took his talents to Arkansas via the transfer portal, and they’ll need to find a replacement for their excellent punter Austin Parker who averaged a joooocy 45.7 yards per punt in 2019 (#14 FBS). Good news? Duke had a fine return game LY and note that KR Damond Philyaw-Johnson averaged an impossible 32.3 yards a pop (#2 FBS; 2 TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The table is set, yo. Charlotte remains on the schedule and is their non-conference opponent. The tough games are well spread out and they avoid Clemson and YOUR Miami Hurricanes.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Charlotte (October 31st)
It’s a SPOOKY Halloween event when the 49ers come to visit. This is a sandwich game between rivalry games with NC State and UNC, and note that Charlotte will be psyched to beat a Power 5 foe from their GREAT STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -125
Under 5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The schedule isn’t too bad and they’ll be improved. Can’t see them bagging fewer than five wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Duke has won just one conference championship since 1962. That came in 1989 when they won the ACC under the tutelage of some dude named STEVE SPURRIER.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
Duke looked well on their way to a bowl-eligible season last year and then, SPLAT. There are some big question marks on the roster (QB, kicking game, LB) but we give them a decent shot to cobble together a winning record. The schedule is definitely manageable.
Want more Duke football ?
WEBSITE
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NEWS
http://www.dukechronicle.com/section/football
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/150/duke-blue-devils
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