Duke Blue Devils 2025 College Football Preview
Posted July 10, 2025
2024 Recap
Record – 9-4
ATS – 7-6
Yes, guy.
The Blue Devils got off to a hot start in year one of the Manny Diaz experience and won their first five games, one of those coming against their hated rivals from North Carolina. Things appeared to be coming off the rails around the midpoint of the campaign when they dropped three of four games, but NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND! Duke emerged victorious in each of their final three contests to end the regular season at 9-3. They got POLEAXED in the Gator Bowl by Ole Miss (L 52-20) but it was still a fine season for the Blue Devils.
Duke Blue Devils 2025 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Blue Devils rode the arm of QB Maalik Murphy LY (2,933, 26-12 TD to INT) and did a nice job thru the air (244 YPG, #44 FBS) but they couldn’t do anything on the ground, and it was actually quite embarrassing (92 YPG, #128). Murphy is off to Oregon St but Duke did an admirable job replacing him in the portal by grabbing QB Darian Mensah who was fantastic with Tulane LY (66%, 22-6 TD to INT). The Blue Devils will be without their top-two WRs from LY’s squad including the dangerous Jordan Moore (861, 8 TD) but their #3 and #4 doods are back in the mix, and keep your eye on WR Andrel Anthony (Oklahoma) who’s got a ton of potential. We also like the addition of Utah TE Landen King. Jaquez Moore gives the Blue Devils a legit #1 RB but it remains to be seen if he can come back from injury and be the force he was in 2023 (674, 5.8, 6 TD). Four starters are back up front and we project Duke to have a much better season on the ground in 2024, and note that the one thing we won’t have to worry about is pass protection (12 sacks LY, #8 FBS). We expect moderate improvement on offense but still rate them as an average ACC offense (26 PPG LY, #77).
DEFENSE
Duke has played solid defense for three straight years and Manny Diaz and company turned these guys into fierce PENETRATORS last year (43 sacks, #6). We feel good about the stop unit this year as the DL looks like one of the better groups in the conference, and that’s saying something when Clemson and Miami are in your neighborhood. DT Aaron Hall is one of many talented specimens up front (8 TFL, 6 QBH) and the DE combo of Wesley Williams (7.5 sacks, 13 TFL, 9 QBH) and Vincent Anthony (9.5 TFL, 13 QBH) can be overwhelming at times. The LB corps is probably the biggest potential problem area with the 2025 team as they lose a pair of stalwarts in Ozzie Nicholas (#1 tackles) and the devastating Alex Howard (#2 tackles, 14.5 TFL). Tre Freeman and Nick Morris are decent guys to build around so we’ll see how things go. Star CB Chandler Rivers (7.5 TFL, 8 PBU, 3 INT) and DB Terry Moore lead a very good secondary, and keep an eye on Sam Houston transfer safety Caleb Weaver (97 tackles, 4 INT LY). We don’t wanna come out with too hot of a take, but we LIKEY LIKEY the look of Duke’s defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There’s more good news to report as Duke has continuity in the kicking game with PK Todd Pelino (15/20 FG, 35/37 XP) and sophomore punter Kade Reynoldson (40.3 net), and they also bring back their primary PR and KR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule is sneaky-tough (Illinois, at Tulane, at UConn) but they get a good draw in the ACC as they avoid Miami, SMU, and LUA-VUH. The only “unwinnable” game on their docket is the Nov 1st trip to Clemson. One final thing to keep in mind is that Duke finishes with four relatively soft games so that’ll come in handy if they need to pick up a win or two to make a bowl game, or heaven forbid, stay in the ACC hunt.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at California (Oct 4)
This will be Duke’s 3rd road game in four weeks and they’ve gotta travel all the way from Syracuse to the communist hotbed of Berkeley, California (about 2,800 miles).
Season Win Total
Market consensus July 10
Over 6.5 -170
Under 6.5 +140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
It’s a MORTAL LOCK that Duke will make a bowl game, so we might as well go ‘over’ 6.5 wins. AMIRITE?
Note – Our official list of season win total investments will be posted in the blog section of the website.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Duke is a tidy 14-8-1 ATS (64%) as a home underdog over the L10Y (2-0 in 2024).
The Blue Devils are +24 in turnover margin over the L3Y (+8, 0, +16) after being -37 (!) over the three previous campaigns.
94% of the male students at Duke are named Chad, Bennett, Thurston, or Sinclair ****.
**** Fact check – True, with a 95% confidence level according to our stats department.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
Duke has won 26 games over the last three seasons. YOUR Miami Hurricanes have won 22, Oklahoma 22, Texas A&M 20, Auburn 16. We could go on forever, but you get the idea. As painful as it may be to admit ****, it’s clear that the Blue Devils have something going on down in Durham. The offense might be a bit limited but we’re big fans of the defensive personnel and the schedule will lend a helping hand. Potential SURPRISE PACKAGE in the ACC.
**** Similar to the realization that taking the DEATH JAB because characters on Sesame Street brainwashed you into submission might not have been a good idea. But we digress.