East Carolina Pirates 2018 NCAA Football Preview

College Football Predictions – East Carolina Pirates 2018 NCAA Football Preview

2017 Recap

Record –3-9

ATS – 3-9

What in the SAM HILL was that?

The Pirates took the phrase “ripped apart” to an entirely different level last year as they gave up 50+ points on six (!) separate occasions en route to their second consecutive 3-9 campaign. There wasn’t much positive going on although they did manage an upset over BYU.

HC Scottie Montgomery heads into his third season knowing that there needs to be signs of life in 2018.

2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #6

AAC – #12

East Carolina Pirates 2018 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Pirates had 543 pass attempts last season. 542 of those are gone. That means uncertain times for the East Carolina offense when they take the field in week one. The starting gig will almost certainly go to either sophomore Reid Herring (1 attempt LY) or true freshman Holton Ahlers. Get cho’ popcone.

The Pirates’ top-two RBs are back for duty (Hussein Howe, Darius Pinnix) but neither of them had more than 450 yards rushing in 2017. The best news is the return of star WR Trevon Brown (2nd Team AAC) who is a big play just waiting to happen (60, 1,069, 17.8, 7 TD LY), although the depth behind him at receiver is unproven. There may some hope on the offensive line where they bring back three starters and a ton of size.

DEFENSE

2017 was a complete disaster. They finished last in the FBS in scoring defense (45.0 PPG) and total defense (542 YPG) which is not the DAILY DOUBLE you want to hit very often. Amirite?

New DC David Blackwell has some fine pedigree given his work at Jacksonville St and will get these guys playing better defense. They lose their top-two tacklers from the 2017 team but do have seven returning starters overall including 3/4 on the defensive line. There is a lot of work to be done but job #1 is plugging holes in a run defense that allowed 246 YPG at almost 6 yards per carry. They allowed 66.6% (DEVILISH number, yo) completions and bagged just 11 sacks in 2017.

With better coaching and more experience the Pirates should be able to hack off 10+ PPG in 2018.

SPECIAL TEAMS

PK Jake Verity was decent last season (16/25 FG attempts) but they need to break in a new P. The kickoff returns were mediocre and the punt return unit was pure filth (more on that below). Kirk Doll was rehired at the STC and hopefully he can coach ’em up.

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It’s a bit on the nasty side. They only have five road games but they include visits to USF, Temple, and a BODY BAG game at Virginia Tech. If they can keep things together the final three games are winnable (at Tulane, Connecticut, at Cincinnati).

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (September 15). Virginia Tech might be down a notch this season but that stadium can be an absolute house of horrors. The Pirates will be catching a ton of points but it still might not be enough. East Carolina will also be coming in off a game vs in-state foe North Carolina.

Season Win Total

Over 3.5 +125

Under 3.5 -155

MEGALOCKS says:

Have to take a pass. The line feels about right. Surely the ‘under’ is the way to go but -155 does not make us too excited.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

East Carolina had NET NEGATIVE PUNT RETURN yardage last season. Six returns for a total of (-4) yards. Now, what in the SAM HILL was going on HERE?

MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5

MEGALOCKS says:

Overall, we give the PIRATES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.

Last season we called for a point spread DEBACLE and finished our analysis with the following…..From an ATS standpoint we usually stay clear of teams with great passing attacks and sketchy defenses.

Can we hit BACK-to-BACK JACKS with our Pirates prognostication?

This feels like another rough season for the East Carolina Pirates. We like the change at DC but worry a lot about the QB position. Maybe the concern is unwarranted? If a pleasant surprise pops up during fall camp the Pirates may be more competitive than it appears on paper.

East Carolina has not had a winning season vs the point spread since 2013 when they crushed it like nobody’s business (7-6 ATS). The past two seasons have been really rough vs the number (6-17-1) and while REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY will be frothing at the mouth to bet East Carolina every week, we suggest it might be wise to tread lightly. If they get blown to bits early (North Carolina, Virginia Tech) it will likely set up inflated spreads down the line.

Want more East Carolina football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.ecupirates.com/schedule.aspx?path=football

FORUM

Free

http://chat.eastcarolina.sportswar.com/message_board/ecubanter/

https://eastcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/pirateillustrated-com-open-forum.6/

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NEWS

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/aac/east-carolina-university/