East Carolina Pirates 2019 College Football Preview

College Football Predictions – East Carolina Pirates 2019 College Football Preview

2018 Recap

Record – 3-9

ATS – 4-8

There weren’t many dull moments early. They opened the year with a loss to something called North Carolina A&T and then proceeded to SHOCK THE WORLD by destroying ACC opponent North Carolina as 17-point underdogs (W 41-19). They played USF tough (L 20-13) and then won a thriller vs Old Dominion (W 37-35), and that was pretty much it. They only won a single game from there on out (UConn) and finished up with their third consecutive three-win campaign.

The Scottie Montgomery era came to its natural conclusion, and new HC Mike Houston (James Madison) will try and get this program back into gear.

2019 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating

East Division – #5

American Athletic Conference – #11

East Carolina 2019 Outlook

OFFENSE

The Pirates struggled on offense a season ago and could only post a meager 22.8 PPG which was the worst in the AAC outside of the TIRE FIRE in Connecticut. In fact, East Carolina hasn’t managed to score 30+ PPG since 2014. Things might be looking up this season as they discovered a potential star QB in Holton Ahlers who did some nice work as a true freshman LY (12-3 TD to INT, 6 rushing TDs). Hopefully he can improve his accuracy as he completed a mere 48% of his passes in 2018.

Our primary concern (and it’s BIGGIE SIZE) are the weapons that will be at Ahlers’ disposal. They lose their #1 WR Trevon Brown (74, 1,123, 9 TD LY), and while the Pirates have a fine history of churning out stud WRs, it’s unclear if they have a true #1 threat on the depth chart. They will also be without #1 RB Anthony Scott and we wonder what kind of rushing attack they will be able to cobble together. At least we know that Ahlers should be able to contribute (592 yards rushing LY). We like the look of the OL as the Pirates return four starters to the fold including their LT and C.

It’s hard to call for too much improvement given the unknown talent level at WR and RB, but we think they’ll be better on offense with a full season of Ahlers under center.

DEFENSE

East Carolina has been TURRRIBLE on defense recently allowing 37.3, 45.0 and 36.1 PPG over the last three years. They return seven starters on but will move on without their outstanding AA DL Nate Harvey who tallied 14.5 sacks (!) LY and an astounding 25.5 TFL. The DL should still be decent as three senior starters are back in the mix to go along with highly-touted redshirt freshman Dorian Hardy. The Pirates bagged 34 sacks LY (#4 AAC) and might have an outside shot at hitting the 30-mark once again, even with the departure of Nate Harvey. The LB and DB groups are worrisome considering how awful the East Carolina pass defense was a season ago, even with help of a nasty pass rush (#11 pass efficiency D in AAC, 31-5 TD to INT).

It will be interesting to see what kind of improvement new DC Bob Trott can coax out of the defense. We project a slight improvement in PPG and YPG allowed but still feel they’ll be one of the weaker stop units in the AAC.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Pirates must find new return men and try to spice up a mediocre return game. Thankfully, East Carolina boasts the best PK in the conference in Jake Verity who nailed 19/21 FGs LY (1st Team AAC).

Schedule Analysis

Overall – It looks pretty favorable. They have TWO (!) FCS opponents on the docket (Gardner-Webb, William & Mary) and also face Old Dominion in non-conference play. They get NC State in week one but the Pirates have a history of showing up vs higher-profile teams.

Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Old Dominion (September 28)

It’s definitely a winnable game BUT the Monarchs are sneaky-tough at home and AAC play is on deck for the Pirates (Temple). It might not be a good idea to consider playing East Carolina as road chalk in this spot.

Season Win Total

Over 4.5 -160

Under 4.5 +140

MEGALOCKS says:

LEANAGE to the ‘over’. Assuming they can handle FCS teams (they couldn’t last year) it seems fair to assume they can bank four wins.

MEGAmazing Tidbits

East Carolina and Marshall are forever linked by the tragic plane crash that took place on November 14, 1970. The Thundering Herd were coming back from a road date with the Pirates when their plane crashed near Ceredo, WV. East Carolina installed a large Marshall memorial plaque outside of their stadium in honor of those who died in the crash.

At home games, the Jimi Hendrix song Purple Haze plays as the players run onto the field before kickoff.

MEGALOCKS ATS Outlook: Neutral

The future looks pretty good in our estimation. They have a promising young QB and an actual head coach. There are a lot of questions, mostly related to the defense, but there’s no reason to believe that they can’t be better this season. It’s hard to give a positive ATS endorsement to a team with a lot of holes and a new HC, and don’t forget that the Pirates have been a DUMPSTER FIRE vs the point spread over the past ten years booking a mark of 52-72-2 (42%). We’ll watch for the first month and recalibrate our expectations.

Go Pirates!

Want more East Carolina football ?

WEBSITE

http://www.ecupirates.com/schedule.aspx?path=football

FORUM

http://chat.eastcarolina.sportswar.com/message_board/ecubanter/

https://eastcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/pirateillustrated-com-open-forum.6/

http://eastcarolina.247sports.com/Board/East-Carolina-Pirates-Message-Board-Forum-59438

https://eastcarolina.forums.rivals.com/forums/pillage-n-plunder.8/

NEWS

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/aac/east-carolina-university/

http://www.reflector.com/ECU