College Football Predictions – East Carolina Pirates 2020 College Football Preview
August 23, 2020
2019 Recap
Record – 4-8
ATS – 6-6
The Pirates started out in decent fashion with three wins in their first five games (Gardner-Webb, William and Mary, Old Dominion) but then fell apart when faced with the MEAT of the schedule. They won just one of their final seven games (UConn) but still managed to pick up more victories than in any season since 2015 (5).
It was supposed to be a struggle in year one of the Mike Houston era. How much improvement can we expect this year?
2020 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
American Athletic Conference – #9
<Note. No divisions this year. One 11-team conference.>
East Carolina Pirates 2020 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Pirates finished last year ranked #6 in the AAC in total offense and really started to COOK in the second half of the campaign. QB Holton Ahlers had a good sophomore campaign (3,387, 59.7%, 21-10 TD to INT, 6 rushing TDs) after showing promise as a freshman. Sure, a few too many INTs, but the Pirates can definitely compete with Ahlers under center. More good news. The top-three WRs are back in the mix and that trio (Johnson, Snead, Proehl) combined to catch 174 passes for over 2,300 yards and 13 TDs LY. C.J. Johnson had three 100+ yard performances in his last five games and note that he roasted Cincinnati for 283 (!) yards on 12 catches. And he was a freshman LY. The Pirates return their top-two RBs from a season ago but note that those two backs (Mauney, Pinnix Jr.) averaged just 3.6 and 4.0 YPC. The Pirates need to find a way to get the rushing attack going to achieve more balance. The offensive line boasts three returning starters and did a good job in pass protection LY allowing just 17 sacks (#T1 AAC). LT D’Ante Smith is one of the best at his position in the AAC.
We expect a significant rise in production and they have a legit shot to average 30+ PPG for the first time since 2014.
DEFENSE
The defense struggled as expected LY and didn’t do much of anything right (#12 AAC total defense, #10 vs the run, #10 pass efficiency D, 23 sacks). It’s good to know they’ve improved in scoring defense the past two years (45.0, 37.3, 33.7) but new DC Blake Harrell has quite a bit of work to do. That’s particularly true up front where there are no returning starters (DE Chance Purvis is no longer with the program). The LB group is the strength of the defense as they return a lot of upperclassmen including the #1, #3 , and #5 tacklers from a season ago (Smith, Stringer, Bivens). That talent should help alleviate the likely problems on the DL but we still worry a lot about their ability to stop the run. The secondary is set with three returning starters including their fine safety Davondre Robinson and CB Ja’Quan McMillan who garnered freshman AA honors in 2019.
This season is shaping up to be a tough one for the Pirates on defense but there are enough decent pieces at LB and DB to make us think they can hold serve in the 32-35 PPG range.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game looks strong with the return of senior punter John Young and note that PK Jake Verity was rock solid LY (24/29 FG, 33/33 XP).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – 10 games are booked so far. The two non-conference games are winnable (Marshall, at Georgia St). They have to face UCF (H) and Cincinnati (A) but avoid Memphis.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Georgia St (October 3rd)
This could be a tricky spot for the Pirates and it falls between a pair of conference games (UCF, at USF) and they may be a short road favorite.
Season Win Total
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number. <awaiting final schedule>
MEGALOCKS says:
Waiting for Vegas/Offshore number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
East Carolina has only won a pair of conference championships since 1976 and both of those came under the tutelage of HC Skip Holtz who led them to Conference USA titles in 2008 and 2009.
MEGALOCKS Outlook:
There’s still some work to be done but we like what we’re starting to see. The offense should be just fine and we like the change in defensive coordinator. HC Mike Houston has some good pedigree having won an FCS Championship with James Madison. They have enough firepower to pull an upset or two but don’t expect big things any sooner than next season.
Go Pirates!
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NEWS
http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/aac/east-carolina-university/
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