East Carolina Pirates 2024 College Football Preview
Posted June 25, 2024
2023 Recap
Record – 2-10
ATS – 5-7
You couldn’t blame any East Carolina fan who demanded that the team ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, WALK THE PLANK, MATEY. The Pirates played an unwatchable brand of football whilst managing to win just two games, and one of those came against something called Gardner-Webb (W 44-0). The Pirates had just come off of two good seasons (8-5, 7-5), and whilst the expectations weren’t high heading into the year, nobody really thought it would be that bad.
East Carolina Pirates 2024 Outlook
OFFENSE
AYE, IT WAS A MIGHTY DISASTER, ME HEARTIES!
East Carolina was absolutely horrible LY as they finished #130 in total offense (277 YPG), #112 in rushing offense, and #123 thru the air. There’s definite improvement in the forecast and it starts at the QB position where the Pirates snagged a pair of formerly highly-touted specimens from Power 4 schools in Katin Houser (Michigan St) and Jake Garcia from YOUR Miami Hurricanes via Missouri. East Carolina brings back their top-two RBs including Rahjai Harris (5 TD) as well as #1 WR Chase Sowell (622, TD) so there are some decent pieces to build around. Those solid incumbents will be joined by Power 4 weaponry in the form of WR Winston Wright (Florida St), WR Anthony Smith (NC State), and TE Casey Kelly (Oregon). Four starters are back up front and the projected starters average around 310 pounds. We’re not looking for miracles but it’s fair to say that East Carolina will be more potent in 2024, particularly since they’ll be cranking up the tempo this year.
DEFENSE
ARRR, THE DEFENSE WAS AS STURDY AS A SHIP’S HULL LAST YEAR, ME MATEYS!
East Carolina wasted a fine performance from the defense LY and the Pirates ended the campaign ranked #37 in total defense (341 YPG) and a sparkling #29 vs the run (122 YPG). The defensive line is in great shape with the return of three starters including DE Chad Stephens (11.5 TFL) and DT D’Anta Johnson (9.5 TFL). In fact, the Pirates have one of the most talented and deepest defensive lines in the AAC. The LB corps loses a pair of starters but they’ve added a pair of Power 4 transfers to the group. It’s possible that they’re down a notch in the middle of the defense but it’ll help having such a stout DL. The secondary should improve on last year’s performance (#88 pass efficiency D) with three returning starters back in the fold including ace CB Shavon Revel (11 PBU).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Pirates have a good-looking kicking game with the return of PK Andrew Conrad (18/25 FG, 8/14 from 40+ LY) and punter Luke Larsen. We’ll see if they can find some better options at PR (#83) and KR (#100).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – East Carolina will almost certainly get off to a 2-0 start (Norfolk St, at ODU) but their next two non-conference battles are tough ones (App St, at Liberty). The AAC schedule is a DREAM. They miss Memphis and Tulane and get to face the FECAL TRIUMVERATE of Charlotte, Temple, and Tulsa.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Charlotte (Oct 5)
This could be a letdown situation as the Pirates will be coming off three challenging tests (App St, Liberty, UTSA) and Charlotte would love to take down another team from the GREAT STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA.
Season Win Total
Market consensus June 25
Over 6 -140
Under 6 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean: Over
We like the ‘flat 6’ that’s available at several shops. There are also some ‘6.5s’ out there at plus money if that’s more of your jam. There are quite a few potential wins on that schedule and they might even pull an upset or two.
NOTE – “Lean” implies this is how we’d invest in this market if forced to make a choice. We’ll notify subscribers in our Season Win Total blog post of any season win totals that have made our investment card.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
East Carolina is just 25-36 (41%) ATS at home over the L10Y. AHOY, THAT CREW BE SALLIN’ WITHOUT MUCH OF A HOME PORT ADVANTAGE, YE SCALLYWAGS!
The Pirates won back-to-back Conference USA Championships in 2008/2009 under the tutelage of your boy Skip Holtz. That’s the last time East Carolina has won a conference title.
The adept Brad Powers reminds us that East Carolina was 0-4 in one-score games last season.
MEGALOCKS Forecast:
It’s time for this team to get the disgusting taste of 2023 out of their collective mouths. We look for significant improvement on offense and the defense looks rock solid. A bit more of a pass rush would be nice, but you can’t have everything. The schedule sets up really well for the Pirates and we feel confident they’ll be sailing into a bowl game. Who knows, if they find a way to take down UTSA in the AAC opener, things could get really interesting down in Greenville.
ARRR, GOOD FORTUNE BE UPON YE!